Has Amelia Earhart’s plane finally been found?

[hacker]

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-buzz/amelia-earhart-plane-finally-found-181310689.html

http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/Bulletins/66_NikuVIIUpdate/66_NikuVIIUpdate.html

Could be but it may also be a lost military plane of the same type

[Navy Bird]

Exciting! TIGHAR's working hypothesis is the only one that holds water (pardon the pun) in my opinion. This is a very interesting development that needs further investigation.

I've read Ric Gillespise's book, I've scoured all of their web site, and I don't believe there are any lost military planes "of the same type" reported near Nikumaroro. Artifacts from other known aircraft (B-24 for example) have been found on the island, however, but these are believed to have brought there. This new anomaly could again turn out to be debris from SS Norwich City, so one must not get one's hope up prematurely.

In my view, the circumstantial evidence for Earhart and Noonan having come down near or on the Nikumaroro reef is considerable. TIGHAR's methodology is not pseudoscience. Ultimately, we won't know for sure until aircraft wreckage with traceable serial numbers is recovered. For those who haven't done so already, have a good long read at the TIGHAR website. It's great stuff.

Cheers,

Bill

[Learstang]

Okay, somebody's got to say it, so I'll be the first - are they sure this isn't one of the Burmese Spitfires?

Regards,

Jason

[Jennings Heilig]

TIGHAR is so full of crap their eyes are brown. They've cried wolf so many times I've lost count. Absolutely nothing they've ever come up with can't be explained in any of ten thousand other ways besides Amelia Earhart. When they get a data plate with a serial on it, then I'll be excited. Meantime it's just a bunch of mega-rich boys out cavorting in the South Pacific spending somebody else's money.

[PFlint]

"Jeff Glickman told Discovery News the photo seemed to show a wheel, a fender and other components of what could be a plane."

sounds to me like an automobile

[Jessica]

The Electra had a "fender" immediately above the wheels which may be what is described in the article.

[Test Graham]

If he can't use proper aircraft terminology what credence does he have on identifying aircraft parts?

[goggsy]

Looks like a magic eye picture to me.

[Miggers]

This is quite interesting:

http://www.electranewbritain.com/Page1.htm

[hacker]

The Electra had a "fender" immediately above the wheels which may be what is described in the article.

Like the mosquito had?

[TonyGol]

Is there a Lockheed Electra Model 10E kit?

[Dave Fleming]

Is there a Lockheed Electra Model 10E kit?

Special Hobby did one in 1/72, and Williams Brothers did one in the ever popular 1/53rd scale

[Navy Bird]

If he can't use proper aircraft terminology what credence does he have on identifying aircraft parts?

Jeff Glickman is an expert in forensic imaging. He runs a company called Photek, and is a Board Certified Forensic Examiner, a Fellow of the American College of Forensic Examiners, a Senior Member of the Institute of Electical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), and President-Elect of the American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. He's using the term "fender" because that is the accepted word in American English for that object (i.e. a mud guard around a tire). I wouldn't be surprised if Lockheed also referred to it as a fender.

Further Reading

Cheers,

Bill

[Navy Bird]

Although I won't resort to playground insults or "argumentum ad hominem" attacks as posted earlier in this thread, it is unfortunate that a research organisation like TIGHAR must often play the "marketing" card in order to generate funding. Short of a long term government contract, they must rely on donations to fund their work. They're not the only ones, of course, it is the new norm for many research endeavors. Tabloid style headlines will no doubt continue, but you need to look beyond that.

What I like about TIGHAR is their objectivity in first trying to falsify each of their theories or discoveries. If you read their publications thoroughly you will find that they go out of their way to explore other explanations for what they find. As I mentioned earlier, all (and I do mean all) of their evidence is circumstantial. Most, taken by itself, can perhaps be explained away (but not all). Taken together, however, and they form a body of evidence that is rather convincing. To hear me say that is quite interesting, as I am a card-carrying member of the Skeptics Society (sorry for the American spelling). I'm not easily impressed in matters such as these. I won't repeat the TIGHAR case here - read their website to start.

Also, as I mentioned earlier, until an artifact is found with a serial number that is directly traced to Earhart's plane the case will remain unsolved. There has been a serial number found that is indirectly connected, and that is the serial number on a sextant box found on Nikumaroro in 1940 that is consistent with the type used by Fred Noonan. There are photographs of him with this make and model of sextant. But this is, of course, not enough. A definitive linkage must be found. And that's what TIGHAR is doing, looking for that linkage. To ridicule their efforts with childish taunts is, well, childish.

Cheers,

Bill

[Miggers]

Have you had a read of the article I posted the link to Bill?

If that is true and the item gleaned from an a/c wreck at the time is correct,

then AE's Electra is no where near Nikumaroro.

[Test Graham]

I don't think a mudguard and a fender are the same thing, even in US English.

[hacker]

is it me or did l start something

[Muppet]

I don't think a mudguard and a fender are the same thing, even in US English.

I do.

Just sayin.

[Navy Bird]

I don't think a mudguard and a fender are the same thing, even in US English.

I grew up in the US and the mud guards on my bicycles were always called fenders, and they still are. The same holds true for a motorcycle. We also used fender as the description for the body panel on a car that surrounded the tires. Different things, but we use the same word for them. I believe that DaveM is correct in his description of the derivation of the term.

Cheers,

Bill

[Navy Bird]

Have you had a read of the article I posted the link to Bill?

If that is true and the item gleaned from an a/c wreck at the time is correct,

then AE's Electra is no where near Nikumaroro.

I'm familiar with the New Britain hypothesis. It's always fun to follow all of the competing theories, especially with a mystery like the disappearance of Amelia Earhart. Two concerns that come to mind about this theory are as follows.

There is no physical evidence, no artifacts that have been presented, and no photographic evidence. The story of the constructor's number on the tag is given by recollection of witnesses. Which can be fine, of course, but by itself isn't much to go on. The constructor's number for Amelia's Electra is well known, and has been for many years. Who knows when it was written on the map? No one has tried to date it. The Nikumaroro theory also relies on many witnesses, but is backed by other physical evidence and considerable scientific analysis and historical detective work. The New Britain theory doesn't have any of that, it just has the story. It's a good story, but just a story so far.

Second, it doesn't seem possible that Amelia would have had enough fuel to turn around and make it 2,000 miles back to New Britain. Why do I say 2,000 miles? Based on radio transmissions of her position, and more importantly their strength, it is extremely likely that she was near Howland Island (where Itasca were monitoring her radio). Several independent estimates say no more than 200 miles away. She had fuel for 24 hours, and had already been flying 20. Turning around and making it back to New Britain is not very probable.

Her last transmission was "We are on the line 157/337…We are running on line north and south." This refers to compass headings, and they were flying along this line to try and find Howland. They wouldn't be flying this line if they didn't think they were near Howland. Neither of these headings takes her back towards New Britain. I think it's fascinating that a line of 157/337 through Howland Island and southeast goes to Nikumaroro. I can only assume she was telling the truth and was indeed flying on that line. Why would she lie?

Plus, Pan American Airways Radio Direction Finding stations on Oahu, Midway, and Wake Island took six bearings on the post-loss radio transmissions (the distress calls). The four strongest of the six cross near Nikumaroro. A seventh bearing taken by the Coast Guard also passes near Nikumaroro. Many distress calls at the time were obvious hoaxes, but several were considered genuine at the time, including those that seemed to originate at Nikumaroro.

If the Australian patrol saw an aircraft engine that day in 1945, it was likely from a B-17 crash (41-2429) on August 7, 1942. The B-17 exploded in air and the wreckage was spread over a very large area, including the area where the Australian patrol reported the engine and other wreckage. I believe they saw pieces of the B-17.

In the meantime, it will be fun waiting to see if any of the theories are right - there are lots of them! It's an enduring mystery, and it's sobering to think that there's a big chance that we'll never know what happened!

Cheers,

Bill

[NZKIWI]

For a number of years I have watched and read up the broadcasts from this outfit , lots of talk , lots of self promotion , lots of asking for financial support , but even after all these years nothing of substance . What have they done with the P38 for example ?

[Brad]

I wasn't going to comment but after reading the info on their website, eh what the hell, it's a forum after all I might as well play an amature Jaques Cousteau....

They certainly make a reasonably well argued case for that sonar return, although it all seems to hinge on weather you believe that the picture in 1937 was of an aircraft or not. I have to ask if they did any more research on the debris field they think they found. At 61 meters down, it is probably just out of reach for a conventional dive, but not beyond getting someone down there to grab something which could be then looked at to see definitively if it came off an electra.

Secondly, how DID they miss something like that? They don't really explain it, even to my untrained eye, that object along with drag marks or debris stands out, it does, so how did someone miss that? It's mentioned they let their contractor give them targets, but why? Why did they not actually look at the data themselves since you knew the position of the mysterious object they believe is an aircraft, along with a debris field. If they didn't want to look, why did they not inform their contractor to actually look in the area BELOW the picture and debris? Seems a logical starting point to me.

Thirdly, look at their ROV tracks, why are they all over the place like a mad womans crap? Why are they also going up and down? Now look at their map of the underwater cliff...they clearly know where the catchment areas are, why have they not run their ROV ALONG those areas. If they had done that, they would have run over that object, since it sits right on the ledge at 225 meters down! Also, running their ROV up and down is ineffiecent, along the cliff would be better, as you've more chance of hitting a debris line or drag marks of an object falling down the cliff.

There is also a bit of the 'fear sell' in that piece -"how long will that item be there before it falls off into the depths...?" then saying they are in debt and looking for money for the next expidition to look at this object. As I said, they make an intersting case, I can't help but think their investigation of this area has been a little amaturish.

Edited June 1, 2013 by Brad

[Ed Russell]

I thought it was all solved in 2012

http://www.skepticblog.org/author/dunning/page/3/

or maybe 2009

http://grapefeed.com/scraps/aaron-o-connell-story--378?page=1

or maybe 2007

http://message.snopes.com/showthread.php?t=13657

Yeah I know.... cynical..... and it's easy to dismiss them........ but you kinda wish they would lie low till they actually found something.

[Brad]

This is the article I found most interesting form those links Ed;

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1338808/Amelia-Earhart-Will-bone-fragment-finally-solve-mystery-happened-aviator.html

It certainly seems like there is something to this story, but I was unable to find anything to say if they were able to get DNA from the bones, what was the end result. Also, if the report about recovering bones 3 years after is true, just how many white females were lost in the pacific?

[Jennings Heilig]

I'll believe something TIGHAR says when they produce the *first* piece of conclusive evidence. To date they've done no such thing. Meantime, they're a bunch of rich boys spending other peoples' money in my book.