Airfix 2012

[AnonymousAA72]

Some goods points there, I think my contention would be that the modelling world isn't - to use an old SAM mantra - "crying out" for a 1/48 Hunter. I think the illuminating thing about the Academy kit was that it ended up being pretty much ignored by the very market that demanded it in the first place. Yes, some of that could be put down to Academy dropping the ball a bit in terms of accuracy, but to some extent I think its value as a plastic market commodity was just overblown.

Anyhoo, I seem to remember 18 months back that the nudge nudge wink wink was a new 1/24 kit and a 1/72 VC-10 (dead cert that, don't you know).

I'm "crying out" for a 1/48th Hunter........................(or 1/24th, though of course thats going to be a Hawk T1 isn't it..........................)

[kev67]

There is only one thing that I want and yes I have said it before, 1/72 VC10, Civilian and military version, you can't go wrong, makes airline and military modelers very happy, well it would make me happy

[thx6667]

There is only one thing that I want and yes I have said it before, 1/72 VC10, Civilian and military version, you can't go wrong

I'd wager you can - I think its a recipe for disaster, another kit that would be talked up and then have its market go AWOL where the excuses would come thick and fast from "well, I'd love to have one but its too big" or "its too expensive", for a kit that would require considerable investment and risk in the hope that people would have cabinets or pockets big enough.

File alongside 1/48 Vulcan.

[lufbramatt]

1/72 VC10 is 70cm long with a wingspan to match, bigger than the 1/24 mossie and way bigger than the Nimrod. Granted there would be nowhere near as much internal detail in it but youre still looking at a £50+ kit. I'd also wager than the "masses" that want one are the handful of people that post on these modelling forums (so realistically about 50 people). Those 50 people arn't going to buy the 10000+ plus that airfix would need to sell to break even. The Mossie is almost as popular as a spitfire in terms of mass market appeal, everyone has seen 633 squadron and the Amiens prison raid is very famous. VC10? I'm quite knowledgable about aviation, but apart from I know that a VC10 has 4 engines at the back and a big T tail, I'd struggle to describe the rest of the airframe, and have no idea about the different versions. Most people I know wouldn't even know what a VC10 was, yet even my non-modelmaker, non-aviation geek girlfriend recognises a mossie.

So I don't see Airfix ever tooling one. And if they did, it would lose them an epic amount of money.

[Iain Ogilvie]

I'm getting deja-vu over this thread...

What enthusiasts want as a 'life and death' must-have do not necessarily a market make.

Of course I firmly believe a 1:32 Scimitar would sell well! OK - prolly to me only!

Reality is that subjects like the F-35 may well do well with the wider public - where the volume sales are to be found.

EDIT - although I do hear/believe that Airfix are following two distinct streams in their marketing strategy - one for well known types/high popularity at great value prices, and more 'enthusiast' pitched subjects, such as the Valiant and forthcoming Lynx, where I'm assuming their prices/margins are based upon lower volume runs. All guesswork on my part of course.

Iain

Edited November 23, 2011 by Iain (32SIG)

[Scimitar F1]

Totally agree on the Scimitar!

[Iain Ogilvie]

Totally agree on the Scimitar!

OK - two of us!

Iain

[thx6667]

1/48 Scimitar and you;d be talking, but I'd take a Swift over that first, as much as I'm an FAA nut.

[Dave Fleming]

1/48 Scimitar and you;d be talking, but I'd take a Swift over that first, as much as I'm an FAA nut.

If Airfix did a 1/48th Swift I would buy it, and I am an avowed 1/72 and smaller modeller.....

[AnonymousAA72]

1/48 Scimitar and you;d be talking, but I'd take a Swift over that first, as much as I'm an FAA nut.

hmmm.....Now I'd welcome a 1/48th Swift as well as a Scimitar - though I doubt whether the Swift would have a greater appeal than the Hunter.....The Scimitar though? Now THAT (like the Sea Vixen of course) has oodles of EDSG/White FAA-appeal (mind you so does the Hunter.........).

[John B]

So if I'm following the Hawker Hunter story correctly, reasons why Airfix should not produce a 1/48 Hunter kit are -

- sales of the Academy kit were much lower than anticipated

- the perceived demand was not reflected in sales numbers

- the accuracy/inaccuracy of the kit seemed to have little bearing on sales

Am I correct in this? If so, then the idea that "the only market survey numbers that count are the number of units sold" still holds true. Other examples of failed/disappointing investment by other model companies include the 1/48 PBY Catalina and 1/48 SB2U Vindicators.

What about the idea that Airfix could rent/ lease the Academy Hunter molds and rebox them with the "Airfix" label and artwork? With good boxart, a timely release (ie during the holiday gift-shopping season, a key anniversary or with a movie tie-in), "Airfix branding", and the "limited re-release" moniker attached, could there be enough unit sales generated?

My guess is that "targeted marketing and price" could be just one of many key factors. If the targeted marketed was "small boys with their fathers", my guess is that a kit with popular markings, molded in "pre-colored" plastic, and packaged basic tools (paint, paintbrush, glue, hobby knife and sanding stick) would be the route to go. If the market was "a seasoned modeller", the approach might be a kit with gray plastic, photo-etch details, resin, and pre-cut masks. Two entirely different markets with different marketing methods and the accompanying kit prices.

[Col.]

Totally agree on the Scimitar!

OK - two of us!

Iain

Was about to say, "three!" but I've yet to buy the Sea Vixen kit and was highly surprised and delighted when that came about.

hmmm.....Now I'd welcome a 1/48th Swift as well as a Scimitar - though I doubt whether the Swift would have a greater appeal than the Hunter.....The Scimitar though? Now THAT (like the Sea Vixen of course) has oodles of EDSG/White FAA-appeal (mind you so does the Hunter.........).

A Swift? Nah I'd not fight you for the last one on a shelf Bill. A line-up of Sea Vixen, Scimitar, Hunter GA.11 would look rather nice though...

[Col.]

...the idea that "the only market survey numbers that count are the number of units sold" still holds true. Other examples of failed/disappointing investment by other model companies include the 1/48 PBY Catalina and 1/48 SB2U Vindicators...

Good point well made John. Guess at the end of the day a kit needs to sell in sufficient numbers to make a healthy profit otherwise it was a wasted exercise. The Revell Ju.52/3 is another one where the hype of expectation was not reflected in sales from what I understand. Hasn't stopped them making a number of Luftwaffe 32nd scale subjects though. Wonder how sales of the He.162, Ju.88, He.111, etc. are going?

Perhaps home market sales are worth more to a company than international? Revell can afford to tool up German subjects if they sell well at home in the same way Hasegawa and Tamiya can concentrate on Japanese machines and Airfix can put out a Sea Vixen or Valiant or even a Gnat. I've no idea how many units of either those Airfix subjects were sold domestically in comparison to foreign sales but none strike me as being so popular as any mark of Spitfire or F-14/15/16.

Perhaps Jonathan may be able to offer a little guidance here and cast aside some of my ignorant assumptions?

[AnonymousAA72]

So if I'm following the Hawker Hunter story correctly, reasons why Airfix should not produce a 1/48 Hunter kit are -

- sales of the Academy kit were much lower than anticipated

- the perceived demand was not reflected in sales numbers

- the accuracy/inaccuracy of the kit seemed to have little bearing on sales

Am I correct in this? If so, then the idea that "the only market survey numbers that count are the number of units sold" still holds true. Other examples of failed/disappointing investment by other model companies include the 1/48 PBY Catalina and 1/48 SB2U Vindicators.

What about the idea that Airfix could rent/ lease the Academy Hunter molds and rebox them with the "Airfix" label and artwork? With good boxart, a timely release (ie during the holiday gift-shopping season, a key anniversary or with a movie tie-in), "Airfix branding", and the "limited re-release" moniker attached, could there be enough unit sales generated?

My guess is that "targeted marketing and price" could be just one of many key factors. If the targeted marketed was "small boys with their fathers", my guess is that a kit with popular markings, molded in "pre-colored" plastic, and packaged basic tools (paint, paintbrush, glue, hobby knife and sanding stick) would be the route to go. If the market was "a seasoned modeller", the approach might be a kit with gray plastic, photo-etch details, resin, and pre-cut masks. Two entirely different markets with different marketing methods and the accompanying kit prices.

I think so John, though IF Academy's Hunters were actually the poor sellers we are being led to believe then that could be down to the factors high-lighted above. The point has already been made that anything in the red box of Airfix will sell (my experience as a retailer a few years ago bears this out to a certain degree. NEW Airfix came a bit too late to help my business survive!!).

I'd like to see what market research has actually been conducted by Hornby/Airfix. Its all very well us speculating and postulating on what we want but someone at Airfix must surely have performed some (apart from the forms they were handing out at SWM!!).

I think that Airfix re-boxing Academy's Hunter is highly unlikely - and I for one am very grateful about that!! I've battled with at least seven or eight of these kits over the last decade or two and frankly I'd prefer something more accurate and certainly easier to build. I have enough after market decals waiting for that day, and I'm baffled by the notion that a 1/48th scale Hunter from Airfix wouldn't sell! Given the amount of Airforces that used it - issue it as an F58 with decals for Misdeameanour if you must Airfix!! I'd still buy one!! (Well thats a given isn' it!).

As for target market, well the same on ethat the Sea Vixen was aimed at I guess!

[GrzeM]

...1/72 Blenheim. Good one. And the Gloster Whittle. And Beaufighter, since Hasegawa one is not available. And decent Gladiator.

Edited November 23, 2011 by GrzeM

[John B]

Well based on what I've recently read about the Academy Hunter, my experience with the Academy F4U-4, and my impression of the Academy F-14, I retract any suggestion I had of Airfix renting/leasing the Academy molds. I think modellers would be better served if Airfix produced an all-new 1/48 Hunter series.

[Mark M]

i may have missed a bit of this but the speculating over the Hunter, is now dead in the water as Italeri are rereleasing it, its already on Hannants

http://www.hannants.co.uk/product/IT2708

[Albeback52]

" youre still looking at a £50+ kit. I'd also wager than the "masses" that want one are the handful of people that post on these modelling forums (so realistically about 50 people). Those 50 people arn't going to buy the 10000+ plus that airfix would need to sell to break even. "

So I don't see Airfix ever tooling one. And if they did, it would lose them an epic amount of money.

On what exactly do you base your assertions? A 1/72 VC-10 would not be so much bigger than 1/24 Mosquito and, as far as price goes, it doesn't seem to have affected sales of said kit. You cannot surely judge "mass appeal" from the people on a forum such as this. They will of course be the loudest voices but I do not believe that Airfix would make a decision based on this mythical handful of people. You cannot either with any degree of certainty predict exactly what the sales figures will be. Nobody knows because the kit does not exist.

I dont buy the "most people don't know about it"argument either. "Most people " are not model makers & I respectfully suggest that "most model makers" WILL recognise a VC-10. Surely these are therefore the only opinions that count in this context?

That does not of course guarantee sales either. However, does familiarity with subject necessarily guarantee sales? Well, to a certain extent it possibly does but, I do not believe this is the sole deciding factor. I suggest that among the "mass market", there is also a large degree of impulse buying - "Look daddy, that's nice, can I have one"?

The question of price is a difficult one. Obviously,Airfix would have to pitch the price low enough to generate sales but, high enough to turn a good profit but, there are plenty of kits available costing a lot more than £50. Does this necessarily have a serious effect on sales? I'm not necessarily convinced it does.

I respectfully suggest that real reason why a 1/72 VC-10 is unlikely to see the light of day is largely because Airfix simply will not take the business risk. THey could very well sell 100,000 but, without some way of measuring likely sales, they simply won't invest their hard earned! A point of view that I sympathise with by the way! I think a certain amount of risk is involved in any business but, in this case, the risk is not being taken.

On the assumption that people from Airfix's marketing dept will read a forum like this, it might be interesting if they could offer their own comments on the subject of deciding what & what not to produce.

Edited November 29, 2011 by Albeback52

[AnonymousAA72]

i may have missed a bit of this but the speculating over the Hunter, is now dead in the water as Italeri are rereleasing it, its already on Hannants

http://www.hannants.co.uk/product/IT2708

Why is it any more "dead in the water" now than it would have been a week ago? The Italeri kit looks like its a re-pop of the Academy FGA9 - an okay kit but not great. IF Airfix (or Revell) WERE to announce one in the next few months, the earliest it would hit the shelves would be 2013.

IF (and thats still a big IF) either company had plans for a Hunter I honestly don't think that Italeri's "offering" would have any affect on those plans......

[AnonymousAA72]

Well based on what I've recently read about the Academy Hunter, my experience with the Academy F4U-4, and my impression of the Academy F-14, I retract any suggestion I had of Airfix renting/leasing the Academy molds. I think modellers would be better served if Airfix produced an all-new 1/48 Hunter series.

I totally agree! The Academy kit flatters to deceive. To get anything half decent out of it you need aftermarket. A new cockpit/seat a new tailpipe section etc., etc., etc.,

C'mon Airfix , you know it makes sense........

[Giorgio N]

You cannot either with any degree of certainty predict exactly what the sales figures will be. Nobody knows because the kit does not exist.

It doesn't exist but there have been other kits of 1/72 airliners before and these can be used as a guideline. Mind, these were all of subjects that were much better known worldwide than the VC.10, so some adjustment might be needed to consider the more limited international appeal of a VC.10 compared to a Boeing 707.

Another kit that exists and might be used as a guideline is the KC-135, that fulfills the same role for which the VC.10 is better known (honestly folks, the civil career of the VC.10 is quite obscure even in Britain). This kit keeps reappearing, so maybe a VC.10 tanker is not a bad idea after all. Interestingly, the 1/72 KC.135 is probably a bigger commercial success than the 707 in the same scale. Is it because the KC is a military aircraft ? Is it because it's still in USAF service while no 707 is used by any big airline anymore? Probably a combination of factors. Again, some adjustment in numbers will be required as the KC-135 appeals a bigger market (the US).

However, does familiarity with subject necessarily guarantee sales?

Not necessarily: the aircraft kit that allegedly sold in highest numbers ever was the Italeri/Testors F-19... and nobody could have been familiar with that as it never existed ! However even if it was not familiar, it was a subject that everybody was talking about back then. Nobody knew what the legendary Stealth Fighter looked like, but everybody believed it existed. It wasn't familiar but it was famous.

[Dave Fleming]

Re-issue the Beagle Bassett, in Transport Command, ETPS and Royal Flight colours!

One of the very few kits from the demise of the original Airfix and hasn't been re-released in the Palitoy/Humbrol/Hornby eras. (JP3 is another, but I'd rather see a new version of that, in overall red Pelicans markings, in the same manner as they have done with the Gnat!)

Anyone want to guess the others?

[jenko]

This is a bit left field but how about..............

1/48 or 1/32 Bloodhound missile set up ??? Like they did in 1/72

[Enzo the Magnificent]

Re-issue the Beagle Bassett

Yep!

[Albeback52]

It doesn't exist but there have been other kits of 1/72 airliners before and these can be used as a guideline. Mind, these were all of subjects that were much better known worldwide than the VC.10, so some adjustment might be needed to consider the more limited international appeal of a VC.10 compared to a Boeing 707.

Another kit that exists and might be used as a guideline is the KC-135, that fulfills the same role for which the VC.10 is better known (honestly folks, the civil career of the VC.10 is quite obscure even in Britain). This kit keeps reappearing, so maybe a VC.10 tanker is not a bad idea after all. Interestingly, the 1/72 KC.135 is probably a bigger commercial success than the 707 in the same scale. Is it because the KC is a military aircraft ? Is it because it's still in USAF service while no 707 is used by any big airline anymore? Probably a combination of factors. Again, some adjustment in numbers will be required as the KC-135 appeals a bigger market (the US).

Not necessarily: the aircraft kit that allegedly sold in highest numbers ever was the Italeri/Testors F-19... and nobody could have been familiar with that as it never existed ! However even if it was not familiar, it was a subject that everybody was talking about back then. Nobody knew what the legendary Stealth Fighter looked like, but everybody believed it existed. It wasn't familiar but it was famous.

Very reasonable points Giorgio. Appreciate your comments. I personally think that, rightly or wrongly, civil airliners lack the "glamour" of the more belligerent aircraft types. Airliners?? Yawn! - who wants a bus with wings!! Boring! No, I do not personally feel that way but, I think actual sales will probably confirm that. I personally would not agree that the VC-10 is not well known ( at least, not in its military guise) because, you will always see them wherever and whenever there is media coverage of British troop movements/combat deployments etc. Show film of RAF Tornados on T V & you will frequently see a VC-10 tanker hanging around.

You're point about the KC is very valid. In food terms, it is often said that the first bite is taken with the eye! I believe therefore that if a VC-10 was produced, marketed and packaged as the military version it would probably do better than a pure civil version. I'm not sure if the argument about the U S market is necessarily valid. Will the Revell AiRbus A400 sell well in the US? Possibly not . It will however be a familiar sight in Europe in the years to come and, I suspect Revell have the European market more firmly in their sights. The RAF VC-10 is, I would suggest not an unfamiliar sight on this side of the pond - at least, not to the people that matter in the context of this discussion.

All this of course is pure speculation - albeit interesting! I think really the best we can do is just wait & see! On a personal note, I'd LOVE a big VC-10 but, I'm equally happy with Airfix's current strategy. I'm snapping up the the older kits almost as soon as they are re released !! Just so long as we don't get yet more Spitfires!!!