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Ukranian Vs. Russian air forces


Filbert_Wang

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Apologies if this post isn't allowed here, I wasn't sure where to put it (if anywhere!)

 

I have always loved military air displays, and can admire the technology and visual spectacle, and perhaps not think too closely about the intent of the machines themselves. 

 

But, it now looks like a case of 'when' rather than 'if' we are about to see a major conflict in Ukraine, and the deployment of significant air assets. 

 

After seeing the very impressive and majestic Ukranian SU-27 Flanker at Fairford, a regular attendant over many years, my thoughts are with what is likely to happen to the Ukranian airforce, their aircraft and personnel? I assume the Russian airforce has a significant advantage in terms of numbers, technology and also combat experience following Russia's forays in Syria, to make the battle for air supremacy extremely one-sided. 

 

Will the Ukranian airforce be moved out to a place of safety, as much of the Iraqi airforce attempted to Iran during the first Gulf War, or will it take up its role in defense?

 

Are we likely to see any interdiction from European or US NATO aircraft that might help them in their defence?

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I was wondering whether we may see more deployments from the US to Lakenheath and Fairford. A-10s perhaps? 
 

I wonder if NATO now regrets shrinking its forces so much and losing the likes of Bitburg, Hahn and Bentwaters. 

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Has the US deployed some Surface to air missiles in Ukraine, as they are only giving defensive armaments to the Ukrainians, so Russian aircraft will not find it that easy if Russia does decide to invade, but that is only my thinking

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I can't help thinking Putin suffers from a real case of "Little Man Syndrome" (if you're not familiar: a condition where men of small stature have a constant need to prove themselves by challenging much larger opponents). 

 

Chris.  

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Fourteen years on from their Georgia involvement one would imagine that Russian air forces would make more use of their reported improved stand-off and PGM capabilities in which case discretion might be the better part of valour by Ukraine to conserve their limited air resources but the heroic last-stand against impossible odds does seem to be central to the cultural imagination across that region.

 

With the hardware there is no guarantee that when push comes to shove in an Eastern European winter that the hardware on either side will work in combat as demonstrated under exercise or sales pitch conditions.

 

Military action and politics are inseparable but trying to keep them apart anyway I would doubt if western nations will do much more than provide materiel and bluster.

 

As regards the bluster there are hundreds of years of sometimes confusing interaction for good but mainly bad between many players in that region so one would hope that onlookers might read a history book before doing anything rash . . . . .  just like they were warned about Afghanistan . . . . . but on the other hand a good war is always handy to distract attention from matters closer to hand.  

 

 

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Don't believe anything you read in the fake news.

Putin is much smarter than allowing himself to be provoked into a war by certain bad actors.

The whole narrative is being used as a distraction from something far bigger politically.

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on a technical point of view, and only this should be discussed here in earnest, the Ukrainian airforce on its own is much inferior in numbers and power to the complete Russian airforce. If the conflict turns into a full blown war, Ukraine does not really realistically stand a chance in my opinion.

 

But there are of course many possible scenarios that would involve only limited numbers... and than as usual the devil lies in the detail and outcome is hard to predict on an individual level... Maybe Ukraininan forces (Airforce?!) is strong enough to at least pose a serious threat, I'd assume at least the air defences  forces have credible armament.... but if Russian decides to pre-emtively take out

 

and last but not least, all will depend to the expected support from Ukraine's alleged allies... in the end this would determine if at all there will be a violent clash at all and under which premises....

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3 hours ago, Des said:

Fourteen years on from their Georgia involvement one would imagine that Russian air forces would make more use of their reported improved stand-off and PGM capabilities in which case discretion might be the better part of valour by Ukraine to conserve their limited air resources but the heroic last-stand against impossible odds does seem to be central to the cultural imagination across that region.

 

With the hardware there is no guarantee that when push comes to shove in an Eastern European winter that the hardware on either side will work in combat as demonstrated under exercise or sales pitch conditions.

 

Military action and politics are inseparable but trying to keep them apart anyway I would doubt if western nations will do much more than provide materiel and bluster.

 

As regards the bluster there are hundreds of years of sometimes confusing interaction for good but mainly bad between many players in that region so one would hope that onlookers might read a history book before doing anything rash . . . . .  just like they were warned about Afghanistan . . . . . but on the other hand a good war is always handy to distract attention from matters closer to hand.  

 

 

I definitely think domestic troubles are one of the main causes for Russian aggression here. 

 

On Georgia - I had read that Russia's involvement there, and blood nose on many occasions (certainly when occupying territory) was one of the main causes for the modernisation of Russia's military, away from poorly trained conscripts and towards a more modern, professional armed force - including a lot of changes to how the air force operates. 

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4 hours ago, RidgeRunner said:

I see the press are reporting Russian live fire exercises off Ireland in February. This is primarily naval stuff, of course. 

 

Testing Europe's soft back door but its ok the Local Fisherman are gonna head out to disrupt it...Stay safe,

.

A group of Irish fishermen is hoping to disrupt Russia's planned 'wargames' in waters off the coast of Ireland with a peaceful protest.

Russia has informed Ireland that it plans to carry naval exercises in waters around 240km off the southwest coast in early February.

The area is within Ireland’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), but not within the country's territorial waters.

While the Department of Foreign Affairs has said states are entitled to carry out exercises in other countries' EEZ, Simon Coveney has informed Russian authorities of Ireland's concerns about the planned exercise.

Russia's ambassador, meanwhile, has insisted the "small" exercise is "not in any way a threat to Ireland".

It all comes amid the growing tension within Europe over fears Russia could soon attempt to invade Ukraine.

Patrick Murphy – CEO Irish South and West Fish Producers Organisation - told Lunchtime Live Irish fishing crews rely on the waters that Russia now intends to use.

He said: “The story is that we have a foreign power doing wargames inside our EEZ… and we have fishermen who fish there.

“We feel there is an inherent danger to the fishermen that work these waters. We’re highlighting that we are going to continue to fish there as a form of protest - our boats will be out there, trying to make a living out of the area.

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My personal opinion is that Putin, while being an odious man is not stupid, the military build is there for us to see, whether he uses it may be academic because he knows NATO will not flood Ukraine with reinforcements. I think he is trying to destabilize the west by causing division, which, if you believe the press, has already started with events in Germany which is by association not surprising considering Putin has made Germany reliant on his gas supplies. This shows up the strategic value of having secure energy supplies.

There are so many nuances to his tactics that to simply focus on the military build up would be foolish.

To use a political pun(sorry mods) ' lessons will be learned' the first of which is; choose your friends carefully. 

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10 hours ago, kev67 said:

Has the US deployed some Surface to air missiles in Ukraine, as they are only giving defensive armaments to the Ukrainians, so Russian aircraft will not find it that easy if Russia does decide to invade, but that is only my thinking

I believe they've deployed to border countries like Poland, Slovakia, and the Baltics. 

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9 hours ago, spruecutter96 said:

I can't help thinking Putin suffers from a real case of "Little Man Syndrome" (if you're not familiar: a condition where men of small stature have a constant need to prove themselves by challenging much larger opponents). 

 

Chris.  

Ive been thinking for years his goal is to restore the Soviet Union. We call it Napoleon syndrome or Little man here in the states. As a 6’7” bouncer for many years I had to deal with this quite often. Sadly yes you can actually hold someone small enough back just by grabbing there head like in the cartoons. 

Edited by Corsairfoxfouruncle
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7 hours ago, Head in the clouds. said:

My personal opinion is that Putin, while being an odious man is not stupid, the military build is there for us to see, whether he uses it may be academic because he knows NATO will not flood Ukraine with reinforcements. I think he is trying to destabilize the west by causing division, which, if you believe the press, has already started with events in Germany which is by association not surprising considering Putin has made Germany reliant on his gas supplies. This shows up the strategic value of having secure energy supplies.

There are so many nuances to his tactics that to simply focus on the military build up would be foolish.

To use a political pun(sorry mods) ' lessons will be learned' the first of which is; choose your friends carefully. 

Agree sensible comment ....who the heck wants a punch up....far too many armchair generals....things going bang in your vacinity are not in my experience a good idea 🤔 

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11 hours ago, Corsairfoxfouruncle said:

Ive been thinking for years his goal is to restore the Soviet Union. We call it Napoleon syndrome or Little man here in the states. As a 6’7” bouncer for many years I had to deal with this quite often. Sadly yes you can actually hold someone small enough back just by grabbing there head like in the cartoons. 

 

Yes - probably not if they are sat on top of a ballistic missile though! (And that's got all sort of double-entendres attached to it.. )

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In late 2019 the BBC's (British Broadcaster not Russian Long-Range Aviation) Moscow Correspondent Steve Rosenberg presented a documentary titled 'The Empire Strikes Back' about contemporary Russian ambitions which explains a lot about how the current situation has arisen . . . . . not quite as straightforward as we might think.

 

Original full-length  documentary can be found at  -  

 

 

Or the later 2020 updated two-part documentaries adding the effects of Covid.

 

Updated version part 1:

Updated version part 2:

 

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On 1/26/2022 at 6:55 AM, dov said:

 

Maybe only this step is neccessary to make the Western European Nations wake up and start funding Defence properly....

Happy modelling 

Corrected that for you 👍

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