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Armenian Su-25 reported to have been shot down by Turkey


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It has the potential to get very messy indeed with Russia in the wings. The real potential of a NATO member firing on the Russians is there. 

 

The whole thing is a bit of a throwback. Two obscure countries fighting over territory backed by major powers.

 

Very messy.

Edited by noelh
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48 minutes ago, noelh said:

It has the potential to get very messy indeed with Russia in the wings. The real potential of a NATO member firing on the Russians is there. 

 

The whole thing is a bit of a throwback. Two obscure countries fighting over territory backed by major powers.

 

Very messy.

as usual with most proxy wars....

what is sure is that the local population will suffer...

 

where was this alleged Turkish F-16? insight Turkey? or were Turkish forces attacked or at least threatend insight Turkey?

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Another Christian-Muslim war, which was started in 1988 by the Azerbaijani. 

Shot down was one of the ex-Slovak Su-25K.

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3 hours ago, harvy5 said:

 

Shot down was one of the ex-Slovak Su-25K.

You know already?! Or are those the only ones flying?

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7 hours ago, noelh said:

The whole thing is a bit of a throwback. Two obscure countries fighting over territory backed by major powers.

 

It is something of a throwback, but I would suggest more to a First World War scenario rather than Cold War, where alliances and support are likely to be less ideological and more based on treaties and agreements.

 

Turkey backs Azerbaijan largely due to historic emnity with Armenia and perpetual, historic border disputes in the west of Armenia over Mount Ararat and surrounding land. Footage has shown Turkish built drones in use, although reports of Turkish backed troops on the ground are unverified at present I believe.

 

Really though, Armenia has no major power backing it.

 

Iran has cultural and religious ties with Azerbaijan but has previously shown more favour to Armenia in disputes over Artsakh so is likely to remain neutral.

 

Russia supplies both nations with arms and has kept a good relationship with both countries since the decline of the USSR - there have not been any border disputes with Russia as there have been in neighbouring Georgia. Indeed the Armenian/Azerbaijani conflict was unique among the post-Soviet conflicts in that neither side was looking to break away or rejoin Russia - both were independent states. If Russian forces were to become involved it would likely be as a peace-keeping force - but there would be no strategic benefit for Russia to move forces into this region given that they already have legacy military outposts in the area and their presence would likely become permanent as there really is no single solution to this conflict.

 

Georgia has ties with both nations and is unlikely to want to get involved with limited military strength which is mostly committed to the northern borders to defend against Russian sponsored breakaway regions.

 

The US is obviously in a limited state to respond due to the upcoming election and the unpredictability of the President, but again they have no obvious side to choose. However their presence might deter either side from asking for Iran for help, given that this would align them with a favourite enemy of Trump and make them targets.

 

Interestingly the most effective peacekeeping operation in the region to date has been run by the EU who have had observers in the area for many years now and have brokered ceasefires during previous flashpoint, although they have no forces to employ to enforce a ceasefire.

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3 hours ago, exdraken said:

You know already?! Or are those the only ones flying?

Photos do not lie! I worked daily with the Su-25 in these colors and with these stencils.

Left wing ... 

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APU-60-I with R-60...

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This wasn't a crash.......😁

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Total  agree, Tim . I think the  EU will  play  a part. I happened to know an EU observer who has been out  there. 

 

But  what  can you do? 

 

It's  not easy 

 

 

 

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Some preliminary results of the conflict for the UK:

https://rusi.org/publication/rusi-defence-systems/key-armenia-tank-losses-sensors-not-shooters#.X3zd6zjNfap.twitter

On 9/30/2020 at 4:03 PM, noelh said:

It has the potential to get very messy indeed with Russia in the wings. The real potential of a NATO member firing on the Russians is there. 

Do You seriously consider this the only behind-the-scenes player?  I have to disappoint You, not the only one and far from the main one.

On 9/30/2020 at 4:50 PM, exdraken said:

where was this alleged Turkish F-16? insight Turkey? or were Turkish forces attacked or at least threatend insight Turkey?

1. Before the start of the conflict, joint Azerbaijani-Turkish maneuvers were carried out.  Turkey transferred a number of F-16s to Azerbaijan, they claim that they did not return to Turkey, but remained in Azerbaijan.

2. Azerbaijan denies that the F-16 shot down the Su-25; according to their version, the Su-25 was shot down by the Azerbaijani MiG-29.

3. With the wreckage of the downed Su-25 on hand, Armenia can determine the type of missile by the fragments of the submunitions and the remnants of explosives.  Where is this data?

4.Both sides are actively using disinformation.

Therefore, the fact is only that the Su-25 was shot down.

On 9/30/2020 at 5:41 PM, luis pacheco said:

The conflict in South Ossetia also took place shortly before the North American elections, at the time.
Pure coincidences of course...

Interesting as a version, but most likely not for current conflict... although this should not be completely ruled out.

On 9/30/2020 at 6:36 PM, harvy5 said:

Another Christian-Muslim war,

If for Christian

it is possible to drink alcohol,

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ararat_(brandy)

then as far as I remember Islam prohibits the use of alcohol.

But not bad brandy(cognac) and wines are made in Azerbaijan:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijani_wine

At least for this factor, it is not entirely correct to reduce everything to the struggle of religions, let's say both sides are not religiously fanatical.  Religion naturally plays an important role in these countries, but these are more secular states, I think, since my region is multinational, I came across both Armenians and Azerbaijanis ... both of them drink vodka ...😁

On 9/30/2020 at 11:50 PM, Tim R-T-C said:

It is something of a throwback, but I would suggest more to a First World War scenario rather than Cold War, where alliances and support are likely to be less ideological and more based on treaties and agreements.

A fairly accurate definition of the current situation, I fully and completely agree.

On 9/30/2020 at 11:50 PM, Tim R-T-C said:

Turkey backs Azerbaijan largely due to historic emnity with Armenia and perpetual, historic border disputes in the west of Armenia over Mount Ararat and surrounding land.

This is very superficial.

On 9/30/2020 at 11:50 PM, Tim R-T-C said:

Really though, Armenia has no major power backing it.

Formally You are right, but in fact there is a large Armenian diaspora in the USA, France and other countries ...

On 9/30/2020 at 11:50 PM, Tim R-T-C said:

Iran has cultural and religious ties with Azerbaijan but has previously shown more favour to Armenia in disputes over Artsakh so is likely to remain neutral.

Difficult question, yes and no.

On 9/30/2020 at 11:50 PM, Tim R-T-C said:

Russia supplies both nations with arms and has kept a good relationship with both countries since the decline of the USSR - there have not been any border disputes with Russia as there have been in neighbouring Georgia. Indeed the Armenian/Azerbaijani conflict was unique among the post-Soviet conflicts in that neither side was looking to break away or rejoin Russia - both were independent states. If Russian forces were to become involved it would likely be as a peace-keeping force - but there would be no strategic benefit for Russia to move forces into this region given that they already have legacy military outposts in the area and their presence would likely become permanent as there really is no single solution to this conflict.

And again, this is very superficial. I will return to this issue later, because this is a very big question, but for now I can say that the Russian Federation does not need this conflict from the word "absolutely not needed". In fact, You described the situation before 2017, until that time it was really so.

On 9/30/2020 at 11:50 PM, Tim R-T-C said:

Georgia has ties with both nations and is unlikely to want to get involved with limited military strength which is mostly committed to the northern borders to defend against Russian sponsored breakaway regions.

Also superficial.

On 9/30/2020 at 11:50 PM, Tim R-T-C said:

The US is obviously in a limited state to respond due to the upcoming election and the unpredictability of the President, but again they have no obvious side to choose. However their presence might deter either side from asking for Iran for help, given that this would align them with a favourite enemy of Trump and make them targets.

According to my information, this is not the case.  The United States is not uniform on this issue.

 

I plan to describe all of the above questions after October 20, when there will be a little more time.  The conflict is really very confusing and who is right and who is wrong is hard to say.  The conflict is part of more global processes, the intermediate results of which we will probably see until 2024 year inclusive.

 

B.R.

Serge

 

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1 hour ago, Aardvark said:

 

On 9/30/2020 at 2:03 PM, noelh said:

It has the potential to get very messy indeed with Russia in the wings. The real potential of a NATO member firing on the Russians is there. 

Do You seriously consider this the only behind-the-scenes player?  I have to disappoint You, not the only one and far from the main one.

Serge mate, don't 

ever assume that we in the west or in my case Ireland don't understand there's more to this. I  grew up in the cold War era albeit in a non aligned country. 

 Russia is not the  CCCP but  it has interests in the region. You can't deny that. But  realistically the west generally could care less about the two A's somewhere in near Asia and the US is consumed with it's own issues. 

 

I totally agree this is very a confusing conflict. But  my reading, simplistic though it may be is that the population of Nagorno Karabahk is ethnically  Armenian finding themselves part of another country.

 

I think I find a parallel closer to home. 

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36 minutes ago, noelh said:

 

I think I find a parallel closer to home. 

At least they share a common island, no?

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16 hours ago, exdraken said:

At least they share a common island, no?

All over the world borders are often rather arbitrary affairs. Sometimes right  through the middle of a building. Lead to a  lot of conflict over centuries. 

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From what I've seen of this conflict on the media, it appears that manned aircraft have taken a back seat to drones and artillery.

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On 10/9/2020 at 12:18 AM, noelh said:

Russia is not the  CCCP but  it has interests in the region. You can't deny that.

 

On 10/9/2020 at 12:18 AM, noelh said:

But  realistically the west generally could care less about the two A's somewhere in near Asia and the US is consumed with it's own issues. 

Dear, Noelh

In short, the answer to the first statement is ambiguous, according to the second statement, I think so.  State structures, for this, are state structures that would play a long game and for the future outside the state, regardless of any events inside.  If such structures stop doing this, then the state has ceased or ceases to exist. 

I do not think that there is no state in the United States now, so I disagree with Your thesis.

  I will describe in more detail late.

 

On 10/9/2020 at 5:53 PM, Slater said:

From what I've seen of this conflict on the media, it appears that manned aircraft have taken a back seat to drones and artillery.

The tactics of using a drone is nothing new, drones were massively used by Israel in 1982, countermeasures can be quite cheap and highly effective.  In this conflict, Azerbaijan for the first time massively used the An-2 drone flotilla:

which open the air defense group of Armenia, after which combat drones strike at the air defense system while the air defense system is reloading the ammunition.


It is interesting, of course, that the An-2 or SAM drones will end earlier, but in any case, the exchange of the SAM for the old An-2 is not equivalent to the SAM.

This tactical innovation  can lead to the fact that now all exhausted aircraft from storage bases can be converted into drones.

 

B.R.

Serge

 

 

P.S. Some good humor. Short guide how a Georgian, an Azerbaijani and an Armenian are recognize.  On video 1 - Georgian style , 2 - Azerbaijan style 3 - Armenian style :
 

😁

There are some Caucasians on the video, but I don't know which ones.

But I can assume that in this company in the video, Georgians, Azerbaijanis and Armenians are sitting at the table.

 

Edited by Aardvark
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Sergei with vodka,you are right. I had teachers from Soyuz and I worked with friends from Minsk and Zaporozhye AZ. Vodka is just the right religion in the Army and especially in aviation.😁

The last time I was in Yerevan was 10 years ago, and thanks to my contact at MoD,I was see ex-Slovak Su-25.Even then several officers Armenia AF told me.
 "We are waiting for the attack F..g Muslims ,Azerbaijanis"

 

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