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Viasistina

Telford

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Thanks @chrism

As an IPMS member I've been keeping up with their forum updates, but this is a very coherent and thought-provoking post you've uploaded. Certainly food for thought.

And I'm in the same camp as you - I appreciate the implications of cancellation for IPMS if they initiate the action, but I feel all discussion here and elsewhere is likely to be overtaken by events as the year progresses.

 

SD 

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I had decided to give this year a miss, as I have done the past 7-8 shows back to back. Earlier in the year, when the lurgi hit, and the shows were canned, I thought if SMW goes ahead, I might attend, to relieve some of life's boredom. I am the keeper of the club's 'silver' and club treasurer, and normally attend and set up/tear down the club display hardware, and a fair part of the models on the tables. Reading the above, if we are expected to regularly 'clean the exhibits' and furniture, then this is a definite no-no. What are you expected to do? Remove the table coverings and take them down the laundrette every 2 hours? Wipe the models down with disinfectant? (Brown Dettol would do wonders, wouldn't it?) How many clubs/vendors etc are in a position to do this? The best IPMS/TIC could hope for is to install UV lighting and bathe the halls periodically. This would mean evacuating the human element, with having an AM and PM session with a light show over lunchtime both days. Short of that, if the above restrictions are in force, then I suspect the majority of exhibitors and punters would not attend SMW2020.

We are also at the mercy of the local 'Tin Gods', and I would not pre book running a bath if they had the final say at 48 hours notice, never mind a major International show.

 

I strongly suspect the EC are going through the motions in hope, and in accordance with the T&Cs. Two things are for sure: I won't be writing the H&S blurb,

and I won't be going with so many fingers in the pie.

 

 

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If the models aren't touched after placing, then I don't see a problem.  As for wiping a few chairs and tidying up your own mess, that hardly sounds apocalyptic.

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Things have changed.  Attending a model show is not going to be like it was last year.     Going back to playing a sport or using a village hall has changed dramatically.    

 

If  you hire a village hall (and I have spoken to people in other villages around us, who do likewise  and the village halls are in neighbouring counties Hampshire and Wiltshire,  and all our respective village halls are requiring us to thoroughly clean everything BOTH on entering the building, AND before we leave.  This covers  cleaning toilet seats, washbasins, mirrors  not touching curtains which have been roped off and secured out of way;  we cannot use any fabric covered chairs any more, soft surfaces and soft furnishings are out, totally forbidden.   Chairs - only plastic ones, we must  wipe walls and doors and other things,  anti-what-not clean all seats and tables, walls, doors, ...  make sure we have windows open all the time in there,   (it gets worse when you involve the kitchen and the ladies who make refreshments etc).    Then I have to wipe everything down after the morning session, and before the next group come in to play in an afternoon .(because that is technically another booking of the venue as it involves a load of different people) ...  along with the detailed registers we have to keep of who was in the hall....    That is just the requirements from the parish council over the hall,   

 

I then have a few pages of legislation over positioning and spacing of equipment, and wiping and cleaning that, and what I can/cannot do with chairs and numbers in the hall at any time imposed on my from the County association/affiliation we have to the sport, as we rely on the affiliation membership for public liability insurance.   That now totally limits/drastically reduces the numbers I can have in the hall at any one time,  and in turn makes the cost of hiring hall unreasonable for the limited few we can have, unless we put up fees a lot.  

 

The restrictions imposed on what we can /cannot do and cleaning etc of the specific equipment necessary for our activity and appropriate social distancing  is horrendous on its own, in addition to that for the hall.  

 

I have to compile a risk assessment for my county sport affiliation body, and send it to them with any nuances pertinent to the hall we play in,  they approve that,  once I get that, I supply it to the parish council, who if they are happy, will allow us to re-convene playing in the hall .....     (this is going to takes a few weeks yet to get in place) 

 

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48 minutes ago, Graham Boak said:

If the models aren't touched after placing, then I don't see a problem.  As for wiping a few chairs and tidying up your own mess, that hardly sounds apocalyptic.

No matter how much you try - and put notices up asking people not to touch - the tables and stuff at front does get touched.  

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But with fewer visitors in this crisis, will this still be a problem?  Keep models away from the edge to avoid sticky-fingered kids?  I can see that many of the people attending are likely to be from the most careless and inconsiderate segment of the hobby/population, but in the end this is a (forbidden adjective) PANDEMIC!  It isn't going to be easy, agreed, but normal rules do not and cannot apply.  In the end, if you don't like it, don't go.  And I wouldn't blame you.

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This reaffirms what we have discussed previously in this thread with regards to what will need to be put in place to allow any event to go ahead. The focus of the IPMS statement has been on the Clubs however the number of Traders attending will have a greater baring on the viability of the show. I know the organisers have started approaching the Traders who have already paid their deposits and in some cases the full amount for their pitches. It will be interesting to see what the response from Trade is with regards to attending this year. If I remember correctly from the previous few years Show Accounts the income received from the Traders paying to attend the event has just about covered the costs of putting it on.

Limiting the number of visitors in a venue at any one time does not lower the total exposure for the people who are exhibiting or trading as they will be exposed to all the visitors over the whole period. There will have to be so many other conditions attached to attending the show that it will not be very much fun in my opinion. I envisage that the one way system, the queuing while maintaining social distancing, the need to refrain from touching anything including those lovely boxes of plastic kits which you won't be able to fondle or open will make the whole experience more akin to a giant click and collect Argos style experience than anything we would recognise as a model show. Woe betide anyone who wants to stop the shuffling masses behind them so they can stop to have a chat!

 

Wishing to shine a beacon of hope for normality is a nice sentiment, but that's all it is. The reality of the current situation is much harsher, until a vaccine is readily available (if ever) large indoor gatherings are going to be high risk ventures for attendees. I honestly think we may not see a 'normal' Model Show for quite some time into the future.

 

Duncan B

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12 hours ago, Graham Boak said:

But with fewer visitors in this crisis, will this still be a problem?  

Fewer visitors = less £ spent, this is a problem for the Traders who will already be counting the cost of attending. If the Show (or any other model show for that matter) was purely funded by the visitors coming to look at all the models then it wouldn't be an issue at all.

 

Duncan B

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5 minutes ago, Duncan B said:

This reaffirms what we have discussed previously in this thread with regards to what will need to be put in place to allow any event to go ahead. The focus of the IPMS statement has been on the Clubs however the number of Traders attending will have a greater baring on the viability of the show. I know the organisers have started approaching the Traders who have already paid their deposits and in some cases the full amount for their pitches. It will be interesting to see what the response from Trade is with regards to attending this year. If I remember correctly from the previous few years Show Accounts the income received from the Traders paying to attend the event has just about covered the costs of putting it on.

Limiting the number of visitors in a venue at any one time does not lower the total exposure for the people who are exhibiting or trading as they will be exposed to all the visitors over the whole period. There will have to be so many other conditions attached to attending the show that it will not be very much fun in my opinion. I envisage that the one way system, the queuing while maintaining social distancing, the need to refrain from touching anything including those lovely boxes of plastic kits which you won't be able to fondle or open will make the whole experience more akin to a giant click and collect Argos style experience than anything we would recognise as a model show. Woe betide anyone who wants to stop the shuffling masses behind them so they can stop to have a chat!

 

Wishing to shine a beacon of hope for normality is a nice sentiment, but that's all it is. The reality of the current situation is much harsher, until a vaccine is readily available (if ever) large indoor gatherings are going to be high risk ventures for attendees. I honestly think we may not see a 'normal' Model Show for quite some time into the future.

 

Duncan B

 

Though with sadness, wholeheartedly agree with this summation. None of us have yet to fully grasp the implications of the 'new normal' with trying to run these events and especially one which involves so much 'interaction' (whether it is catching up with folk, fondling plastic, eating/drinking et al). Whether we like it or not, this is going to take a couple of years to come to terms with. sorry to say.

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Probably no vaccine on current form, but there is a lot  more directed effort this time around so there's some hope.  However, the likeliest long term effect is that the deadliness of the disease will reduce until it becomes no worse than any usual winter flu variant death toll.  Which we effectively ignored before and will do again.  But the open question is: how long is long term?  Not a few months, for sure.

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15 hours ago, Graham Boak said:

However, the likeliest long term effect is that the deadliness of the disease will reduce until it becomes no worse than any usual winter flu variant death toll.  Which we effectively ignored before and will do again.  But the open question is: how long is long term?  Not a few months, for sure.

Sorry Graham but this is very unlikely.

 

As more is uncovered about Covid19 it is being realised that this is a much more serious illness than any flu-type illness we have previously encountered in terms of short and long term effects/morbidity and mortality. It was initially thought to be a respiratory illness along the lines of flu, MERS and SARS. Now it's becoming apparent that it's much more than that. In the short-term it can cause catastrophic auto-immune reactions (the body over-reacts defending itself) that result in death from multi-organ failure within days or even hours of virus contact.

 

If you survive then considerable numbers of people who have contracted Covid19 are left with long-term (possibly permanent) effects on their health. Inability to concentrate, persistent weakness and tiredness and lasting respiratory problems are all being documented. 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-53084368

 

SD

 

 

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Overnight many of us in the north have discovered that our weekend plans are now criminal activity with no clear advance warning.

 

Not to discuss the politics of this decision - it is what it is - but this will probably show that big events are just too risky to plan when they could be shut down after setup on Friday and before doors open Saturday.

 

I for one would still attend the show if it ran, but only if I could be sure that after a 5 hour drive and overnight stay, it was still going ahead!

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I can't disagree with your description of this particular menace, but my statement is still true - over time viruses do weaken, because the more virulent versions kill off their hosts and fail to prosper themselves.  But this may possibly take a considerably long time.  Until they mutate again restarting the cycle.  

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, SafetyDad said:

 

16 hours ago, Graham Boak said:

However, the likeliest long term effect is that the deadliness of the disease will reduce until it becomes no worse than any usual winter flu variant death toll.  Which we effectively ignored before and will do again.  But the open question is: how long is long term?  Not a few months, for sure.

Sorry Graham but this is very unlikely

 

SD not sure you are right on this. I think only one disease has been eradicated with a vaccine in the wild - Smallpox. We have, one way or another coped with every virus ever - that is why we are still around.

 

H1N1 is still around - you may know it by it’s more usual name of spanish flu for example.

 

Also the 2003 SARS had a much higher mortality rate
 

if you are under 40 you have a higher chance of dying in an accident than from Covid.

 

Things are bad enough without making things worse than they are.

 

Will

 

Edited by Scimitar F1

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The effects of the disease are now starting to spread from the older segment to the younger ones, because of their lack of control.  So far the effect on younger ones have been smaller, but how about their efficiency as carriers to the more vulnerable?  SARS had a much higher fatality rate but was contained by just the kind of measures we are undertaking now.  More generally, the death rate from accidents has fallen as more safety measures have been introduced - it is not a god-given feature but one that is almost entirely in human hands.  We can and do control it, much as we can and do limit the effect of coronaviruses.  Having an extra large number of deaths on top of the more inevitable ones is not really a clever thing to attempt to minimise.  We cope with deadly diseases by taking stringent efforts to manage them.  Or not - and die.

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18 minutes ago, Scimitar F1 said:

SD not sure you are tight on this. I think only one disease has been eradicated with a vaccine in the wild is Smallpox. We have, one way or another coped with every virus ever - that is why we are still around.

 

H1N1 is still around - you may know it by it’s more usual name is spanish flu for example.

 

Also the 2003 SARS had a much higher mortality rate
 

if you are under 40 you have a higher chance of dying in an accident than from Covid.

 

Things are bad enough without making things worse than they are.

 

Will

 

Will

 

I think you should re-read my contributions to this thread. It's obvious from your comments about H1N1 that you have not. 

Your post above is misleading because you are presenting information selectively and out of context , but I'm not going to engage with you in an on-line spat.

 

This is what I mean about context:

 

SARS did have a higher mortality rate than Covid19. 14-15% to be exact. But there were only 8422 cases. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/05/estimates-sars-death-rates-revised-upward. That makes about 1200 deaths

 

There are 17,321,394 confirmed Covid19 cases worldwide at time of this post with 674,000 deaths. https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-GB&mid=/m/07ssc&gl=GB&ceid=GB:en

 

SD

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Next time if you do not want to get into a spat than do not accuse someone of being misleading straight after writing that.

 

I will let the readers decide what is more misleading 

 

2 hours ago, SafetyDad said:

It was initially thought to be a respiratory illness along the lines of flu, MERS and SARS. Now it's becoming apparent that it's much more than that. In the short-term it can cause catastrophic auto-immune reactions (the body over-reacts defending itself) that result in death from multi-organ failure within days or even hours of virus contact.

Or

 

‘ the 2003 SARS had a much higher mortality rate’

 

that you admit is correct. 

 

 

 

Time will tell just how dangerous or not COVID -19 is. I do know for certain that the economy is seriously damaged and plenty went untreated during Lockdown with terminal results. The balance will become clear in time.

 

I will not post again in this particular forum as I genuinely do not want a spat.

For those with enquiring minds have a look at lockdownsceptics.org and then make your own minds up.

 

Happy Friday 

 

 

Edited by Scimitar F1

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Hmmm, nice, healthy debate.

 

One thing we can be sure of.........we're not being told the whole story.

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On 7/31/2020 at 2:19 PM, Tim R-T-C said:

Overnight many of us in the north have discovered that our weekend plans are now criminal activity with no clear advance warning.

 

 this will probably show that big events are just too risky to plan when they could be shut down after setup on Friday and before doors open Saturday.

 

Now imagine you are a Trader and have to decide whether to attend or not in the next couple of weeks. If you do attend and have to travel any distance other than from the local area you will need to book accommodation for possibly Thursday night (e.g. in my case), definitely Friday, Saturday and probably Sunday night (again in my case) for you and any helpers (if you can find Hotels that are actually open). You will probably have to buy in/manufacture extra stock beforehand on top of your normal restocking requirements. You will have to pay in full for your pitch at the Show long before the actual weekend. If you don't have your own van you will need to hire a van to cover the duration from loading up mid week to emptying and returning it possibly on the Tuesday after so quite possibly a week's hire of a van plus the fuel.

 

This is all starting to look quite costly up front for the Trader which is fine if he has a reasonable confidence that the show is going to go ahead as normal and will be attended by keen customers in the normal numbers. In the event of a local lockdown occurring before the show has opened but after having travelled then that is possibly the worst case scenario for a Trader as they have already invested heavily up front and have no way of making any of that money back in a reasonable time frame. They might not be able to store all the extra stock they have bought in for the show plus their regular stock (think of a small shop for example) which could add to the overall costs too. What happens if a local lockdown is actually brought in on the Saturday? I guess they would be allowed to travel home but would then have to self isolate for 14 days (in Scotland, not sure what it is down south), how is that going to affect the Trader's normal routine/business?

 

It's all very well for the public to say they would attend the show if it's going ahead as they will have only the cost of their travel, possibly over night accommodation and possibly entry money to be concerned about and can always decide at the last minute not to travel and not be financially troubled by that. The Traders, once committed (in late August when they have paid their dues to the Organisers), are going to be heavily invested in the Show long before the doors open at 9am on Saturday when the public start coming in (or not). Most Traders will already be doing their own assessments as to whether it's worth the risk (financial and health). My gut feeling is that a lot of Traders that are not local will be asking IPMS UK EC for their deposits to be held over until 2021 and will be prepared to write that off if the EC refuse rather than risk further losses.

 

Duncan B

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Posted (edited)

Well said Duncan. 

 

As  a punter I was going to travel from Broadstairs (the most easterly bit of Kent) to Telford on Friday (not the shortest of drives). Show Saturday, home Sunday with S.W.M.B.O. with me (she goes shopping in the centre). I'm 65 and in the "at risk" zone. To me it was looking at the odds and percentages of what "could" go wrong. In my eyes it all stacked up against going. (We are dealing with humans here not machines; what can go wrong usually does.) Human nature being what it is we are prone to being "touchy feely" in the way we interact with each other. Plus we tend to take our brains out when we are at these type of events and forget the rules and regulations.   If there is a limited number of people in the venue than we are waiting outside. It's November it's usually cold and wet. (Not so good at my age). (major telling off from the boss)

 

Next year is another year who knows what it will bring. Hopefully an improvement on this year. If the show goes a head next year no doubt we will make up for this year spending wise.  In reality there is on line and local hobby stores. It's not that we are going without. It's the interaction between us we are missing.

Lets keep everything in perspective.

 

For the likes of me and others, it's only a hobby. NOT a life style or a way of life. If it wasn't there we would be doing something else.

 

So lets depress the clutch and put brain into gear and think it through.

 

Dick

Totally passionate about this hobby. 

Edited by jenko

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Posted (edited)
On 7/17/2020 at 2:37 PM, Richard E said:

Heartening news, however is there an "Elephant in the Room" for any organisation planning any form of mass participation event in the shape of the Lightning Lockdown powers being granted to to local authorities in order to prevent any local spikes: are they still going to want to proceed with their events unless they are protected against any potential losses which may arise if they have to be cancelled at the last minutes on the instructions of the local authority? 

"Lightning lockdown" is all well and good as long as people comply.  Locally we have one of the worst infection and mortality rates in the East of England and, unsurprisingly, BAME groups are over-represented.  My niece lives in a part of town where these groups form a major proportion of the population.  In her words " they were all up and down the road in and out of each others' houses like nothing had happened.  Within three says they were all in the mosques "cleaning" and all their shops were opened because they were bored being stuck at home".  OK the WASP stereotypes aren't covering themselves with glory either, but without a properly enforced lockdown we still have a significant problem Houston.

 

PS: for avoidance of doubt my niece is mixed race and scared witless of this situation.

 

Mods please delete this if it's inappropriate.

Edited by stever219

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+1 to @Duncan B's breakdown of the issues for traders above. Perhaps I would add to his list that you are in the lap of the Gods trusting to the efficiency of the cleaning teams in any venue chosen for your overnight stays. I'm sure that many other traders are undertaking similar analyses of their situation for this year. I'm not a trader, but it would seem to me that attendance by overseas traders has probably already been written off by them at this point given the additional outlay required (not to mention the risks associated with air travel plus probable quarantine on arrival and return?

 

Without the traders, it isn't a show is it? Telford is usually such a wonderful opportunity to see products you didn't know existed, and thus buy lots of gear you never knew you needed :laugh: - plus the kits of course. And, as we know, it's a right scrum getting inside and then making your way around the 3 halls. Even more of a scrum at most of the traders' stands, especially where there's a sniff of a bargain!

 

Socially distanced kitswap? :nah: ain't gonna happen is it?

 

I can't see how it can work, be safe, and therefore enjoyable for the people there this year. An announcement that the Nationals is going ahead won't make any difference for me at this stage. It's normally a big occasion for me each year, that I look forward to and enjoy, but as @jenko has neatly and succinctly described above, just something that I'll put on hold until circumstances are more settled. 

 

In summary, I wonder if we are possibly already at the point where traders and attendees are reviewing their options, with some (many?) deciding that this isn't the year to attend the Nationals.

 

SD

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Two of the three SIGs that I regularly support over the weekend have already pulled the plug on SMW'20.....I suspect (anticipate) the third will probably follow suit in the next week or so. Clearly this would help the IPMS(UK) EC in determining any new layout that meets the requirements for social distancing, control of entry etc but given some of the very coherent arguments set out above, particularly by prospective traders, I would now be surprised if the show goes ahead as planned. I do not envy the EC in trying to grapple with this issue right now.

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A number of SIGS that I support have now all stated their plan is to not go this year;.  I am just waiting to speak with a couple more of my own SIG who have been incommunicado for a few days, to see if they want to put on a display.    

   

Comments from both Safety Dad and Jenko  are in-line with my own view.    I am also aware of a number of traders who have opted to have their deposit transferred over ready for 2021,  and are thus not going.     If I were to go, a lot of the people I would like to meet up with, I already know, will not be there;  as they have categorically said "Not going" and it is thick end of £200 gone by the time I have put petrol in car, paid hotel bill, and bought food by way of meals out etc;   before I start buying things at the show, and imbibing a few beers etc.      I don't bedrudge that money, as that is what it costs, and I enjoy the pilgrimage up to Telford each year;  but, this year - that money would be wasted.     

 

The atmosphere and ambiance of the weekend will not be there.  Part of the weekend is the catching up with folk you only converse with on forum,  having a beer and a natter; and a good look at finished models you have only seen as WIP etc for months;   wandering round the traders looking at stuff, impulse buying something and gandering other stuff.     

 

All the perspex and screens that would be needed to have those taking money behind screens or wearing decent PPE;    trying to stamp the membership cards and issue wristbands - running a membership desk, the list of areas for problems just keeps growing and doesn't bear thinking about;   trying to run kit-swap and have everyone socially distanced all the way round, and the queues in there are wicked at best of times as they check things off and write in books and cross reference sheets etc.    Remember - employees who have returned to the workplace are advised not to share items like books and stationery - and all the roles undertaken by volunteers throughout the event change every hour. 

 

 

The  latest moves from the UK Government  on Friday 31st, July have more than proved, that you cannot have anything arranged at the moment and guarantee with any certainty it can go ahead.

Those who had assumed after the last announcement by Boris, two weeks back, that their wedding reception for 30 would proceed today, or in coming weeks, are today scuppered.  

Those who booked hotels and travelled to Sheffield for this weekend and next few days; and bought tickets to attend the Crucible Theatre snooker championships in the trial indoor event being held in a conference centre; are now frustrated and at a financial loss with their hotels. (People who were in the conference centre on Friday when announcement was made, were allowed to stay in there for the rest of day, if they had tickets for afternoon; but everyone else for sessions today and thereafter has been offered a ticket refund - but has stumped up hotels etc and are now at a loose end.)

 

 

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