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Viasistina

Telford

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6 minutes ago, Duncan B said:

What is the general feeling here about attending? Speaking as a member of the public I'm not for risking it at all.

 

As a henchman I do as I'm ordered, of course, but the feeling I get from on high is just no. As a member of the public, ditto. I don't think that would change if it was announced that the event was going ahead; I think we have to write this one off and hope for better things next year.

 

Cheers,

 

Stew

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1 minute ago, Stew Dapple said:

 

As a henchman I do as I'm ordered!

Your Boss is a slave driver and very undemocratic (and let's not mention the rudeness)! I, on the other hand, am an excellent employer and would allow you to sit up front in the van and not in the back, you would be allowed to speak (occasionally) and I would supply Jaffa Cakes (not the real ones though). Did I mention I was on the look-out for a new "Helper"? My last one escaped!

 

Duncan B

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15 minutes ago, Duncan B said:

Your Boss is a slave driver and very undemocratic (and let's not mention the rudeness)!

 

But if we don't mention the rudeness, what do we have left to say about him? :lol: 

 

16 minutes ago, Duncan B said:

I would supply Jaffa Cakes (not the real ones though).

 

I'm sorry, but to paraphrase Bob Marley, no Jaffa, no deal :D 

 

Not wishing to bring a downer to the whole thing but it could be a while before either of us do anything hench-related.

 

Cheers,

 

Stew

(Actually not that big a fan of Jaffa cakes, original or the Lidl copies)

 

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4 hours ago, Scimitar F1 said:

Well it is two weeks since the pubs have reopened so we should be seeing a massive spike in cases shortly and deaths two weeks after that. Particularly given that COVID deaths are around 2% of total deaths currently and total deaths are now below the 5 year average. 
 

If we don’t then I am totally on for Telford if it goes ahead. If it does not go ahead in that case then I wonder if it will ever go ahead again

looking back, the VE day events were predicted to cause a surge in nfections and deaths; they didn't.

 

The Beach crowding we saw on the south coast over the bank holiday weekend were predicted to be the cause of a surge in infections and deaths; they didn't.

 

The BLM protests were predicted to be the cause of a surge in infections and deaths; they didn't.

 

Those, being outdoors, in a lot of sunlight, where transmission rates are said to be very low are probably not a good basis to predict what might happen as a result of the pubs re opening. You are right to say that we shoud be seeing a surge in cases now, but if we don't it is entirely possible that the measures taken in pubs have helped reduce transmission.

 

I confess that if Telford goes ahead, I will - unless my wife somehow managed to imprison me - go if it is on. By then I think we will have a much better idea of how this damn virus has affected the public and how it can be controlled (not eradicated, no virus eg flu can be eradicated) to enable events like Telford to go ahead.

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Remember that the boy who cried wolf was proven right in the end.  As were the people who said, over the years, that one day we would see another pandemic so we should be prepared.

 

I suggest that warnings were made that there could be a surge in the infection rate, not predicted that there would be.  One is scientific, the other political (at best).  Guess which?  I would agree that open air and sunlight helped a lot, but also that the majority of hedonists were in the low-risk categories anyway.  Given that the reduction in the death rate has not only slowed but actually levelled out, I wouldn't be quite so quick with the optimistic claims of any lack of effect.  It could simply be that the actual death rate would have continued to fall, as it has done in countries that delayed relaxation until reaching a lower death rate.  Weekly death rates are slightly lower than average for the time, but this could simply be because the weakest and unluckiest have been culled already.  The Annual death rate is still shocking.

 

People are still dying at 100 per day, from a disease spread by human contact, and we are arguing the toss about increasing this?  Those whom the Gods wish to destroy...

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4 hours ago, Whofan said:

looking back, the VE day events were predicted to cause a surge in nfections and deaths; they didn't.

 

The Beach crowding we saw on the south coast over the bank holiday weekend were predicted to be the cause of a surge in infections and deaths; they didn't.

 

The BLM protests were predicted to be the cause of a surge in infections and deaths; they didn't.

 

Those, being outdoors, in a lot of sunlight, where transmission rates are said to be very low are probably not a good basis to predict what might happen as a result of the pubs re opening. You are right to say that we shoud be seeing a surge in cases now, but if we don't it is entirely possible that the measures taken in pubs have helped reduce transmission.

 

I confess that if Telford goes ahead, I will - unless my wife somehow managed to imprison me - go if it is on. By then I think we will have a much better idea of how this damn virus has affected the public and how it can be controlled (not eradicated, no virus eg flu can be eradicated) to enable events like Telford to go ahead.

The 2020 Cheltenham Race Festival and the Liverpool/Madrid match are both now generally recognised as probably having been highly significant vectors for the increased spread of Coronavirus just before lock down. See here - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-52485584

 

Both events were outside where infection spread should be reduced to some extent as you highlight.

 

@Graham Boak is perfectly correct in his reading of the current statistics - our death rate is both mathematically stable and shocking in the numbers involved. It could have been less and continued to fall further than it has without the events you have described- we'll never be certain without effective tracking and tracing but the suspicion is strong. 

 

Look at New Zealand for a contrast in terms of Coronavirus management where key decisions were and are driven by clear health-related principles.

 

As others have already said - models vs health?

That's an easy decision for me.

 

SD

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9 hours ago, Duncan B said:

I, on the other hand, am an excellent employer and would allow you to sit up front in the van and not in the back, you would be allowed to speak (occasionally) and I would supply Jaffa Cakes (not the real ones though). Did I mention I was on the look-out for a new "Helper"? My last one escaped!

 

Duncan B

I would agree with the phrase that your a 🏴‍☠️ :pirate: 🏴‍☠️!! As to the hard pressed Steve escaping......that'll teach ya to employ a retired submariner :snorkle:

8 hours ago, Stew Dapple said:

Actually not that big a fan of Jaffa cakes, original or the Lidl copies

Stew, try the ones from either Morrisons or ALDI, my missus says that their better than the original! Oh, er, hang on, we're talking about the :pirate: aren't we......it'll be ALDI!!

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4 hours ago, SafetyDad said:

The 2020 Cheltenham Race Festival and the Liverpool/Madrid match are both now generally recognised as probably having been highly significant vectors for the increased spread of Coronavirus just before lock down. See here - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-52485584

 

Both events were outside where infection spread should be reduced to some extent as you highlight.

 

@Graham Boak is perfectly correct in his reading of the current statistics - our death rate is both mathematically stable and shocking in the numbers involved. It could have been less and continued to fall further than it has without the events you have described- we'll never be certain without effective tracking and tracing but the suspicion is strong. 

 

Look at New Zealand for a contrast in terms of Coronavirus management where key decisions were and are driven by clear health-related principles.

 

As others have already said - models vs health?

That's an easy decision for me.

 

SD

I don't disagree with your last point, but would suggest Cheltenham and Liverpool took place in poor weather - cloudy or at night, rather than the sunshine of the ones I mentioned.

 

And really, I don't disagree with yourself overall but  would point out that if as Graham said the death rate is stable (if not far too high anyway) then that must be a good indication  that crowd events have not caused a spike or a surge in cases/deaths. As you say, without them the infection/death rate might be lower.

 

What is the implication for Telford? If and it is an huge if - things materially improve between now and October it might be possible for it to go ahead.

 

As to New Zealand, it's total population is half that of London, and a 13th of the UK's population as a whole.

 

I think that must have substantially helped the good work done by the government and health system in NZ.

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Posted (edited)

I thought I'd clarify my position. The last thing I want is more deaths. I'm 70 and overweight so technically vulnerable, but I am fortunate in that I am in good health.

 

I am appalled at the incompetence of the government and management of the health organisations, and the brazen stupidity of so many people in this country at the same time I am full of admiration for the clinical staff in all areas of work.

 

But my hope is that this damn virus goes as soon as possible so that we can live the lives that we expected to on New Year's day 7 months ago.

Edited by Whofan

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16 minutes ago, Whofan said:

But my hope is that this damn virus goes as soon as possible so that we can live the lives that we expected to on New Year's day 7 months ago.

Amen. 👍

 

Dick

I'm about to cancel my hotel accommodation for Telford. It's only a hobby not a life statement. 

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On 7/18/2020 at 6:39 AM, Scimitar F1 said:

Well it is two weeks since the pubs have reopened so we should be seeing a massive spike in cases shortly and deaths two weeks after that. Particularly given that COVID deaths are around 2% of total deaths currently and total deaths are now below the 5 year average. 
 

If we don’t then I am totally on for Telford if it goes ahead. If it does not go ahead in that case then I wonder if it will ever go ahead again

One of the issues around pubs or restaurants is that most people go to their local pub and if the area they live in has a low rate of infection then they are unlikely to become infected. For example  the council ward where I live has had no case for a couple of weeks (according to Mrs T, who should know) and so infection would have to come into that community from somewhere else. 

Telford and like such events are a completely different ball game with people coming from all over the country and beyond. There will be a big push on flu vaccination this year to minimise  the number of flu cases as Covid19 combined with a flu epidemic, with the two feeding off each other, is not a nice thought.

I have already decided on health grounds that Telford is too big a risk for me, its not just the chance of dying but the long term effects of the virus do not look particularly appealing and can hit anyone. 

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"If the area that they live in"  We don't live in fortified communities and never move outside them.  Pub-goers will go back home, and then travel to work or gym or whatever, and mingle with people from outside their "local" communities.  Many people will not go to the pub/restaurant around the corner, if there still is one, but to a favourite out in the country, in the next town, by a nice river, with a particularly good menu...  Or just Real Ale?  People move in and out of their local communities all the time, and any infection will move with them, or be brought back.  This will probably be hidden by the "low risk" bias of the likeliest to do such visiting, but  possibly bad luck on their less fortunate acquaintances.  Or, as always with diseases, just plain chance.

 

But as far as diminishing risks go, some relaxation had to happen.  Sometime.  That the rate hasn't continued falling is not evidence that everything is fine but that things are not getting any better, as they have done in countries that delayed such relaxation - if not (yet) as bad as in those countries that took greater risks with health.  My previous opinion was that things should be better by November, and if so I'd probably go.  Now I think that unlikely.

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My accommodation was cancelled for me by the venue, and I must say, I'm not trying to find an alternative. No SMW for me this year...

best,

M.

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2 hours ago, cmatthewbacon said:

My accommodation was cancelled for me by the venue, and I must say, I'm not trying to find an alternative. No SMW for me this year...

best,

M.

What accommodation was that?

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26 minutes ago, Julien said:

What accommodation was that?

@Julien it was what used to be called the Priorslee rooms, part of the University complex conference centre, just over the M54 from the International Centre. It was collateral damage when the Uni decided how it was going to re-open.

best,

M.

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Thx, was pretty much sure they would not be accepting bookings this year.

 

I stayed there last year and was not impressed at all.

 

JUlien

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A lot depends where you live, Graham. In the area on the outskirts of Leeds where I live, a lot of the drinkers go to local pubs or the clubs. When Mrs T and I went for a walk the pubs etc. were pretty busy, but the car parks were empty and Mrs T who works within the local community tells me that the older (and probably the more vulnerable) all socialise and shop locally and most of their families live fairly locally as well. A lot of people are still working from home and the office park near to us are still ghost towns. I have lived in and around Leeds for 40 years and the small town/big village for 30 years and people still spot I am not 'local'. 

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Issue with Cheltenham was probably not the racecourse but the town pubs afterwards. It’s carnage that week...I know Cheltenham residents who leave town for festival week every year.

 

while the exhibition centre may be within their contractual rights to levy hefty cancellation fees I wonder if better sense might prevail. It’s a relatively unsuccessful backwater venue with a very longstanding customer who presumably would renew their annual booking until the sun burns out. How stupid would you be to bankrupt said customer? The local hotels would not thank them for killing some reliable out of season business either.

 

incidentally before getting too depressed at the antibodies research, check out the T Cell research. If it behaves like SARS and MERS, T Cell immunity remains. Some scientists believe many of us already have T cell immunity acquired from exposure to more benign Coronaviruses with sufficient genetic similarity.

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Around the UK any and indeed many hotels which are reopening, are only working at 50% occupancy,  and have to do this, so as to "air" the rooms at present.  That coupled with them unable to serve self-service style buffets for breakfasts, which the on-site and other large nearby hotels do or did;   and then they now will have to wipe down seats and tables and everything else between punters is going mean  a lot of congestion around what few they can seat,  as to the hotels in the area - many of which have not yet given any indication on websites as to when they will reopen - such as the Ramada, the International and Holiday Inn.  

 

Not forgetting that the University have cancelled all bookings - for however many they could accommodate there... 

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Posted (edited)

I haven't commented until now on this.

 

I've not been to many "nationals" and have only been to the shows held at Telford, since 2012 and have only been an IPMS member for a couple of years or so. BUT.... Surely what we should be doing rather than second guessing what the management of the TIC or the IPMS(UK) EC  are discussing around the show (and not least forgetting that members of the society are also getting regular updates from John Tapsell via the IPMS blog), we should be letting the show committee get on with what they have been doing for a number of years!

 

That is, liaising with the TIC, and the relevant bodies in regards to the organisation of the show. It has been stated that as yet, no major decision needs to be made until the end of August. By which time further restrictions on daily life may or will have been lifted. And in fact, it is noted that "In a further easing of Covid restrictions, indoor event venues and conference centres are being permitted to re-open for business. There are some provisos to that announcement such as organisers and venues being able to ensure a ‘covid-free environment’ before events can go ahead (exactly what that means is anyone’s guess at this point). Nonetheless it is an interesting move." (quoting the IPMS blog).

 

I personally think that it's a wait and see.

 

(one last comment from John T -  What does it mean for IPMS (UK) and Scale ModelWorld? Virtually nothing at this stage. We’d already been planning for a range of scenarios and although this is a change of policy on venues, it has no immediate impact. With three months still to go until the Scale ModelWorld dates, there are far too many variables in play for us to be able make a final decision on whether the show will take place.

There will be those who say that we should have cancelled it already but you must remember that IPMS (UK) has a contract with The International Centre (TIC) which imposes a number of obligations on us around early cancellation, not least of which is a hefty financial penalty if we do so. Conversely, if we don’t cancel at this stage, the contract gives us much greater flexibility in terms of the size and format of the show we can plan for.")

 

Whilst this may not suit a lot of people, I think this is what should be happening. Believe me, I currently hate going into busy environments, and am not looking forward to next Friday (24/07/2020) when masks need to be worn in certain environments - Asthma and I have a massive rise in anxiety when anything is covering my face (high ASD traits), bordering on panic attacks. I can normally cope with SMW as I know what to expect. But in current circumstances it will be an unknown factor. But we need to play a waiting game, and allow the organising committee and the EC of IPMS(UK) to do the job that the membership has elected them to do.

 

Edited by treker_ed

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6 hours ago, treker_ed said:

Surely what we should be doing rather than second guessing what the management of the TIC or the IPMS(UK) EC  are discussing around the show (and not least forgetting that members of the society are also getting regular updates from John Tapsell via the IPMS blog), we should be letting the show committee get on with what they have been doing for a number of years!

 

I personally think that it's a wait and see.

 

But we need to play a waiting game, and allow the organising committee and the EC of IPMS(UK) to do the job that the membership has elected them to do.

 

**Spoiler alert, this post is not intended as being inflammatory so please don't think I'm trying to start an argument in what has been a well behaved and grown up discussion so far**

 

I'd agree with most of that and I doubt there are very many that have commented on this thread that would think differently.

 

However excuse me if I'm interpreting your original post wrongly but it is coming over to me as telling me we shouldn't be stating our own opinions on here for fear of influencing or subverting the IPMS (UK) EC while simultaneously broadcasting your own opinion. Surely we are allowed a little discussion on the biggest topic of the Century to pass the time of day? I very much doubt anything we say in this "General Discussion" area will have any effect on the IPMS (UK) EC's thought processes anyway. One man's "second guessing" is another man's chit-chat amongst fellow modellers.  

 

My apologies if I'm misinterpreting your original post (it is early in the morning and I haven't had my first coffee yet) but it is a general discussion as far as I'm concerned and not an attempt to undermine the IPMS (UK) EC.

 

As I say, not an attempt to start an argument and quite possibly just me running off with a ball that doesn't exist, just my own observation.

 

Duncan B 

 

 

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Should we also, by the same logic, not discuss the progress of Covid-19 through the country and its personal effects, because the Government is in charge and is telling us what to and not to do?  Sometimes both at the same time., admittedly.   

 

I'm not close to the IPMS Committee, but suspect that they might appreciate the interest shown and the variety of opinions (however extreme and ill-informed, or not) without their being drawn away from their responsibilities to the  Society and its members.  I further suspect that any, however, limited,  feel for the numbers already determined not to attend or vice versa would be of deep interest.  Not that this forum should be taken as providing any kind of respectable market survey, but I'm sure the Committee members are sufficiently aware of that!

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Posted (edited)

The discussions on here have been very fair and open. No one telling IPMS what they 'must' do or even really what they 'should' do. Just discussion of the national situation and how it may affect things.

 

I'm sure the committee would welcome the feedback on this forum.

 

To date most recent comments suggest that even if the show did run, a lot of people wouldn't go anyway.

 

This is a major issue in the show planning and one they will need to prepare for.

Edited by Tim R-T-C

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IPMS UK still pretty much in a wait and see mode, they have until end August to make a decision.

 

As I see it to cancel early will hurt IPMS financially and no one wants that. 

 

https://ipmsuk.org/viewpoint/not-much-of-an-update-on-scale-modelworld/?fbclid=IwAR1HYpucCsaxrx7cFtuMw5IIHvalK-QGtBPP6njXtCcIgqz9srzQIS5ZiTg

 

Julien

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This week the IPMS have published a news update, which alludes that things will be different, if indeed they do happen in some form.     Yesterday I also received an email (as a SIG leader), which asks a couple questions, and invites a response.     Both of which I will copy in below.

 

First the IPMS general info release:

Quote

I mentioned last week that although there seems to have been new guidance issued on indoor events and specifically conferences and exhibitions, it doesn’t really change our planning for Scale ModelWorld at the moment – there are simply too many variables still in play. However, it’s probably worth spending some time to manage expectations with regards to what a Scale ModelWorld might look like in November 2020.

The one thing I can guarantee is that SMW will be a very different show to what might normally be expected. It should be self-evident that there will be fewer visitors, fewer traders and fewer clubs in attendance. In particular, there are likely to be few if any overseas traders and international visitors.

Then we have to consider how to plan out a show that takes into account any social distancing requirements, traffic flow around the halls, refreshments and any limitations on the numbers of visitors who can be in the hall at any one time – and those requirements could change several times between now and November.

It’s fair to say that we are very much looking at a ‘Scaled-down ModelWorld’ in 2020 in terms of content if not in terms of any less space. Is it worth the effort, I hear you ask? Unequivocally ‘yes’, I would respond to that question. The effort may come to naught if the practical restrictions defeat us but until we  have no other choices left we intend to do our level best to run an event in November.

I said way back at the start of the lock-down, some four months ago, that we see it as a point of principle, an article of faith, to continue to work as normally as possible in these strange times and that includes planning for Scale ModelWorld. We could give up but it seems much more constructive to push forward in the belief that a show is possible. We all need something positive to look forward to, something that demonstrates that life has the potential to return to something resembling normality.

It seems unlikely that Covid-19 will disappear anytime soon and we will therefore need to adapt our lifestyles and hobbies to accommodate it. We’re in this for the long haul and part of our planning has to be around finding new ways of doing things rather than abandoning them as too difficult to resolve. We are not blind to the difficulties that face us, or the practical implications of having an age demographic within the hobby that puts many of our potential visitors into vulnerable categories. That extends to some of the organising committee too so those concerns have a direct impact on our thinking.

Conversely, other events are starting to take shape and their organisers clearly believe that it should be possible present an event that can operate safely within the public and practical restrictions that face all event organisers at the moment. There is also a clear appetite for another major model show to take place before the end of the year and for every message we receive saying it’s not possible to run the show, we get another expressing hope that the show can go ahead. Our priority is to find a safe and sensible way to make Scale ModelWorld happen in some form, probably smaller, most likely with a lot more space and perhaps not with all the usual features.

As always, we’ll keep you updated on progress.

John Tapsell
IPMS (UK) Publicity Officer

 

Now the text of the email:

Quote

Dear Branch and SIG leaders

 

Clearly this has been a very difficult year thanks to circumstances that no one has predicted. As this email is written the situation still remains fluid but we are hoping that SMW20 remains a beacon of hope for us all into some semblance of normality returning.

We have been unable to communicate effectively with The International Centre as their administrative staff have been on furlough since the beginning of the lock down and only return to the office in early August. As a venue, they have their own situation to understand as well as recently issued guidance to absorb and apply. As things stand, they also have to obtain permission from the Telford and Wrekin Council for events to go ahead, and the council can change their mind at any time. It is fair to say that any degree of certainty remains short.

As you would expect we will be having a series of conversations with TIC over the coming weeks with the view that our decision whether SMW20 will go ahead and in what form will be taken on 29th August. In the mean time we would like your valued contribution to that decision making process. We would appreciate your response and any comments to the following questions please. As you will see these are aimed squarely at what do we need to provide from your perspective but whether this is achievable will be determined by the venue’s guidance and prevailing concerns of, but certainly not limited to, the issues such as social distancing. Whether the venue can comply with concerns such as recommended extraction and air flows, one way systems, challenges with set up, visitor queuing constraints etc are still to be established. The answers to these questions are not definitive but are indicative to help us reach the appropriate decisions. In the first week of September we will follow up on the responses for clarity and final confirmation.

 

Do you still intend to attend SMW20 as per your booking? There will no penalty on future years for any group deciding not to attend.
If you would reduce your space, by how much/to what size?

Would limits on numbers of members manning your stand be considered as prohibitively constraining.
 
If you would be good enough to respond swiftly it will help considerably in our ability to quantify the magnitude of this aspect of our challenges.

Many thanks

John White
UKLO
IPMS(UK)

 

Whilst there is so much up in the air, and there is no information forthcoming by the society on "how" or what they even think they might try and organise, if they can, get the go-ahead, it is hard for members  ( and clubs etc to know whether it is worth the expense of going still.    

 

The prospect of not having very many chairs around the venue, or only being able to have 2 behind a table;  queuing to get to a traders stall, and what if you then want to go back to another one at the other end of that hall or in another aisle?  would you have to walk through all the other halls and back in again like doing a lap at the grand prix?   If there is a one-way system around all three halls, in such a manner as if you need get from hall2  to hall 3, you have got to go via hall1 and out and round  and back in again, it is going to make the idea of the event an absolute farce;   going to the refreshment areas and having to stand,  as the government are saying to reduce chairs is not going to be much fun,  toilets likewise have to be limited.    This is the information we need to have an idea of, so as to make fair decisions .  

 

The government and trade show bodies have put together a hefty list of conditions, and the TIC will I guess still have to work through them, and then feed that down to the IPMS who inturn will have to feed down to traders/clubs.        The Association of Event Venues have published guidelines for future events. I will attach a link to some documents which anyone who is interested can download and read.
https://www.aev.org.uk/.../Industry-All-Secure-Standard.pdf
https://www.essa.uk.com/covid19
https://www.aev.org.uk/__m.../COVID-EGUIDE-APPENDIX-2020.pdf

 

How will this relate to a model show? – the cloths on table coverings – most clubs and sigs have bed sheets, table cloths or some such 
chairs behind tables these would have to be cleaned and spaced out so much and technically should only be sat on by the “nominated” person…. (all well and good until someone moves and shuffles chairs to get in/out of aisles. One chair per 6ft of space … 2 people behind a 12ft space, and the chairs needing cleaning everytime someone different sits on them.

 

They also suggest that entry is staggered throughout the entire day. (not really sure how that can work well for a model show though, if you are going for a day.)
The display that a participating club puts on would also need to be regularly cleaned too, or else be behind a perspex screen … there would then need to be strict “no touch” by those wandering round. Perspex screens are regularly mentioned too, as is the need to wear face masks all the time.

 

they recommend that the use of chairs is drastically reduced in eating areas, and consequently there would be less chairs anywhere to just sit on and rest, and/or at each display, and that cleaning on stands/displays is carried out throughout the event,

 

 

I am in the camp of having the belief that the show ought to be shelved/postponed/cancelled/whatever word you like to use for 2020.

One thing for certain – is that this will involve every model club and SIG preparing a few more pages of risk assessment ….

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