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Viasistina

Telford

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19 hours ago, Mike said:

There's a whiff of a new lockdown being introduced again here in the UK, so I think it's even less likely that things will resolve themselves to permit the show, especially after seeing the flagrant disregard people have shown for social distancing over the week of hot weather we've had.  The photos are head-shakingly depressing and can't help but assist in the spreading of a new wave within the next few weeks as they go about their business not knowing they're infected, infecting everyone they get near.  :boom:

As you say Mike 'depressing' watching the news pictures in utter disbelief as to what was going on.

Looks like quite a lot of people just don't crasp whats been going on in the world

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Irresponsible people with agendas are everywhere.

We have covidiots demanding complete lift of all measures under the moniker #viruswaanzin (virusmadness to you).

And as they don't believe in keeping distance, they organise protests that intentionally don't allow for it.
Some were prohibited due to H&S concerns so now they pulled the stunt of calling for everyone to go 'on their own initiative' -  to dodge the responsibility!

 

Anyways.

What I said earlier about traders is I believe the real dealbreaker. IPMS is logically waiting for official guidance, but the reality of the business side is rapidly catching up.

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12 hours ago, cmatthewbacon said:

The death toll is always going to rise Monday --> Thursday. Official death reporting doesn't happen as effectively over the weekend, so a drop on Monday isn't significant, nor is an increase (over Monday) on Tuesday and Wednesday. There's plenty of evidence that the overall prevalence in the population is falling, but that doesn't mean that gathering in huge numbers is a good idea...

 

 I am entirely aware of the fall in reporting over the weekend, and how the toll in subsequent days will inevitably ride compared to the weekend.   However I was not looking at overall toll but the daily rise day-on-day and compared with the same three days in the previous week.  This showed a rise whereas previous like on like checks had shown a fall.  I am also aware of the complexity of the subject, and the need for rather more evidence than just three days.

 

I apologise if this was not completely clear.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Duncan B said:

 

The attitude of some of the beachgoers interviewed over the last few days has been mind boggling to say the least, one man stated that because he didn't know anyone who had caught the virus he thought it was irrelevant to him!! With people like that loose in the general population it is hard to believe we will be able to have SMW in 2021 never mind this year.

 

 

Duncan B

 

They are not alone - Alan Sugar said the same thing:

 

‘Who’s dead? I’m not’: Lord Alan Sugar says lockdown should end because nobody he knows has died

Edited by Tim R-T-C
Weird formatting error

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"Who's dead? I'm not", if Lord Sugar did say that (and I'm not suggesting he didn't just that I wasn't aware of it) then it illustrates the whole problem in a nutshell. The mindset it takes to make oneself a Billionaire is not conducive to being capable of having empathy for all your fellow citizens or for wanting what's best for them, only for wanting what's best for oneself (in his case getting business back up and running so he can make more money I guess). He is clearly not alone with this train of thought which appears to be increasingly divergent from what the majority of the science community tell us is for the best.

We are all dancing around the constraints of the forum rules (as well we should) but clearly there are a lot more issues involved that we can't discuss here as to why SMW will go ahead or not.  

 

Duncan B

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5 minutes ago, Duncan B said:

"Who's dead? I'm not", if Lord Sugar did say that (and I'm not suggesting he didn't just that I wasn't aware of it) . . . 

See this news report.

AS's remark is quoted about halfway down

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-53164226

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Interesting news report today that the NHS is going to use the spacious halls of the NEC to conduct routine business as they attempt to tackle the backlog while maintaining distancing. If the concept catches on exhibition centres will be falling over themselves for the income stream.

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On 27/06/2020 at 12:55, wombat said:

Interesting news report today that the NHS is going to use the spacious halls of the NEC to conduct routine business as they attempt to tackle the backlog while maintaining distancing. If the concept catches on exhibition centres will be falling over themselves for the income stream.

From a personal level, and speaking to someone I know who builds those kind of emergency hospitals they should have moved all the covid patients there and then carried on with other stuff in the hospitals?  

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3 hours ago, Scimitar F1 said:

Can we go back to discussing modelling?

Bored of Covid -19 discussion now. Time will tell - everything else is conjecture.

 

Firstly, it's a thread. Nobody is making you read it.

 

Secondly, "Time will tell - everything else is conjecture" is technically true but as with all subjects, those who have been paying close attention and informing themselves on a given subject tend to be the ones proven right time and time again as opposed to those who shouldn't believe everything they think.

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4 hours ago, Scimitar F1 said:

Can we go back to discussing modelling?

Bored of Covid -19 discussion now. Time will tell - everything else is conjecture.

Well its all relevant to modeling shows and to Telford which the thread is all about?

31 minutes ago, Jamie @ Sovereign Hobbies said:

 

Firstly, it's a thread. Nobody is making you read it.

 

 

Exactly

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19 hours ago, Julien said:

........................emergency hospitals they should have moved all the covid patients there and then carried on with other stuff in the hospitals? 

The problem for ALL of the 'Nightingale' hospitals was one of manpower shortage. They were having to put out requests to staff from other acute hospitals along the lines of 'would you be willing to work at XXXX, for a period of xxxx. You will be expected to remain on site for the duration and not go home' which is why most didn't open.

How do I know? Youngest Daughter is a nursing sister in Leeds.

 

Paul

 

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Something predicted in advance and ignored.  You can't pluck doctors and nurses and ancillary staff out of thin air - to imagine it could be done at a time of a pandemic beggars belief.  They were a massive publicity stunt in the desperate hope that the number of cases would level off so that they wouldn't be needed.  Fortunately it did.  At least the first wave did.

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Given the 40,000 shortfall of registered nurses in the NHS not surprising. Cutting training places in 2010 and then the bursary a few years later never looked such a brilliant idea, given that complaints about shortages of qualified staff predate WW2. 

Back on topic, given that SMW has been the biggest event of its kind in the UK, if not Europe or the World, then there is bound to be keen interest in what is happening and what might happen. Plenty of IPMS members and I suspect some from the Committee read this site and will have all have their views. 

 

Edited by Mr T

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I am interested, in asking this especially as there a few folk who seem to know what they're talking about.

 

Early on in the crisis I recall seeing a graph which showed how the measures would be taken in order to prevent a massive spike and replace it with a series of smaller ones. Lockdown off, spike follows, lockdown re-introduced (we have seen a local one in Leicester). This ran for several spikes/troughs. Is that something that was chucked out as an idea - like herd immunity?

 

In terms of shows etc, the possibility of spikes and local lockdowns would make the situation even more precarious for an event organiser as the town/city in which the show was hosted could be locked down in a matter of days or hours if local infection rates rose.

 

Also, my memory of Telford a couple of years back was of a large number of people sniffing, sneezing, coughing etc... I mean it's November and that's often when the cold/flu season really starts to take off... Anyone who coughs or sneezes at the moment is seen as a potential danger (which is fair enough) so inside those halls would feel very threatening..

 

Yes, I'm on the pessimistic side of the fence.

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IPMS UK has made it pretty clear that one of the reasons the show is still being planned at present, is that to cancel now would be very costly financially given the contract with the International Centre.

 

Reading between the lines I presume this means that there are penalties for cancellation of the event, and at present covid gathering and social distancing guidance / regulations that would make it impossible for the event to go ahead do not extend to November.  I guess that if and when government advice is extended to rule out or severely restrict events such as SMW in November, it will be somewhat less costly for IPMS to cancel.

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22 minutes ago, Skymonster said:

IPMS UK has made it pretty clear that one of the reasons the show is still being planned at present, is that to cancel now would be very costly financially given the contract with the International Centre.

 

Reading between the lines I presume this means that there are penalties for cancellation of the event, and at present covid gathering and social distancing guidance / regulations that would make it impossible for the event to go ahead do not extend to November.  I guess that if and when government advice is extended to rule out or severely restrict events such as SMW in November, it will be somewhat less costly for IPMS to cancel.

Thank you for pointing that out - best comment on this thread.  It may be linked to insurance cover rather than the  contract with the TIC but the trigger is the same.
 

if we are still avoiding gatherings by mid Nov the economy really will be toast.

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Agree on the insurance point, my son was due to go on a school trip in July, the trip was only just officially cancelled by the operator, although no one was going anyway, but school had to wait for operator to cancel before they could get a partial refund from them and then claim the remainder from their own insurance policy.

 

As a regular trader at SMW its not looking good, wait and see but can't see it going ahead this year. Also seem to come home with a cold after the show almost every year thanks to getting coughed on all weekend!

 

Colin 

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10 hours ago, Skymonster said:

IPMS UK has made it pretty clear that one of the reasons the show is still being planned at present, is that to cancel now would be very costly financially given the contract with the International Centre.

 

Reading between the lines I presume this means that there are penalties for cancellation of the event, and at present covid gathering and social distancing guidance / regulations that would make it impossible for the event to go ahead do not extend to November.  I guess that if and when government advice is extended to rule out or severely restrict events such as SMW in November, it will be somewhat less costly for IPMS to cancel.

That is exactly why the Scottish National Model Show wasn't cancelled earlier than it was (and probably many others), the organisers wanted to pull the plug earlier but had to wait until they were contractually free to do so. The IPMSs' worry must be that with the lifting of various restrictions those set of circumstances that allowed earlier Shows to cancel without penalty won't exist by August and they might be obliged to put on the show with social distancing built in or cancel at their cost, either of which would be a financial drain I would suggest.

 

Duncan B

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17 hours ago, Mattlow said:

I am interested, in asking this especially as there a few folk who seem to know what they're talking about.

 

Early on in the crisis I recall seeing a graph which showed how the measures would be taken in order to prevent a massive spike and replace it with a series of smaller ones. Lockdown off, spike follows, lockdown re-introduced (we have seen a local one in Leicester). This ran for several spikes/troughs. Is that something that was chucked out as an idea - like herd immunity?

 

 

I taught University Nursing students up to Masters' level until quite recently.

 

The original projections of Covid spread were done at Imperial College, where UK death rates of 500 000+ were thought likely without intervention as the NHS would be overwhelmed by numbers. The graphs you refer to are here http://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid-19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/. Sadly, if you want evidence to support this, Texas, Florida and Arizona seem to be on a track where disease contraction rates are increasing in the exponential way hypothesised by Imperial.

 

I have read that up to 10 peaks are thought possible with lockdowns imposed and then relaxed, but the evidence is not unanimous for this. It's not necessarily appropriate to compare Covid with Spanish Flu (H1N1) from a century ago, but H1N1 had four peaks, with the worst being the second. Epidemiologists consider that H1N1 was so lethal because it co-incided with large numbers of troops stationed and moved together, less-than-desirable population physical health because of the Great War and food shortages, and no clear understanding at the time of the precise means of transmission (virus in droplets). Things are different today, but some parallels remain.

 

The idea of peaks and troughs remains - politicians wish it was otherwise because of the impact of lockdown on economics, but nevertheless, the facts are as they were. In England the relaxation of lockdown restrictions is now primarily governed by a balance of economic and health driving forces. Germany and the USA have both had to re-introduce lockdowns as a result of re-emerging health concerns.

 

Herd immunity requires 90% or more (ideally 95%+) of the population to either have had the disease (gaining antibodies and immunity) or to have been immunised against the disease. It depends upon the disease producing antibodies, which then serve as protection against future attacks. Then the infective agent runs out of places to go. Current UK levels of population with Coronavirus antibodies are not clear, but may be between 10 and 20%, so well short of the level needed. However, unlike many other diseases, it is unclear if exposure to Coronavirus produces a lasting antibody response that then protects the person. There are cases of individuals contracting Coronavirus more than once. There is no evidence currently that people who have had Coronavirus once are protected from future disease contraction. So, without a vaccine, and with doubts over antibody protection, achieving widespread immunity seems unlikely.

 

Applying this information to Telford is sobering. As many others contributing to this thread have already said, we modellers are not always ideal physical specimens in the peak of health and good condition. Nor are some of this cohort necessarily socially aware in term of remembering to maintain appropriate social distancing. Hygiene standards are not always tip-top either ( @Duncan B's comments about handling cash make uncomfortable, if true, reading). I personally feel that large gatherings such as music concerts and trade shows may be amongst the last to be sanctioned as they present a significant risk to virus spread, yet are not essential to the economy in terms of jobs and revenue. I'm mindful of  other posters here who are retailers and earn their livelihoods from modelling, so there is no intention on my part to be callous or thoughtless in this post. Thankfully, these livelihoods can be maintained through Internet sales I hope.

 

Only Smallpox has ever been completely eradicated by vaccination and public health - no other disease has. They remain with us, as will this I suspect. 

 

Sorry for the lengthy post.

 

SD

 

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6 hours ago, SafetyDad said:

Sorry for the lengthy post

No need to apologise when the content is quality stuff...

 

Thank you for a comprehensive answer.

 

Matt

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13 minutes ago, Mattlow said:

No need to apologise when the content is quality stuff...

 

Thank you for a comprehensive answer.

 

Matt

My pleasure Matt.

 

I speak as a regular Telford attender and as someone with pre-booked seats in the 5th row to see Steve Hackett at Newcastle City Hall this November.

 

I strongly suspect that neither occasion will go ahead this year sadly.

 

:nah:

 

SD

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