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20 minutes ago, Gorby said:

If you have an underlying condition which means you'll die in two years, but Covid kills you first, then yes, that death should be attributed to Covid.

Exactly, and conditions that are not 'fatal' such as asthma which when mixed with Covid are extremely threatening. Covid should rightly be the cause of death, but the resultant actions taken give us an indeterminate number of secondary deaths that are not directly due to Covid, but the measures in place, everything from cancelled treatments, not going the doctors early enough and the mental health side of things also. Covid caused excess deaths , but not directly in these cases

 

The most accurate numbers I've seen, and using data from other countries, show the expected death rate; the Covid attributed deaths and the excess deaths. This gives a much clearer picture of the extent of the impact and also show the discrepancies in other countries reporting methods. Only then do we see through the bluster much like what @iang mentioned

 

The statistics mess was made worse from day one, for which I blame the press, for by constantly saying '....but what about this, you haven't included them'. For them to say the figures are never consistent, no wonder

 

I am also hoping the inevitable inquiry doesn't get too political, as whatever side of the fence you are on, I don't think anyone could have handled this 'well' as even the countries that did 'well', we will never know what the infection rates where truly like when they went into lock-down and a whole multitude of other reasons. We just need to learn for the next one and not find a scapegoat

 

All that aside though, we are a communal species, and some of the 'future world' visions I've seen are not a nice place. We need events like Telford, music gigs, sporting events etc because we need a sense of community. I just hope that people continue to wash their hands as I am still perplexed by the increase in soap buying - didn't people do this before???:poke:

 

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^ very well said. I wish I could provide the specific link that pointed to the figures I gave. It was a hyperlink in one of the comments on a Telegraph web page last week. I often save these nuggets, but sadly not this one.

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2 minutes ago, Sparkie said:

 

t @iangt hope that people continue to wash their hands as I am still perplexed by the increase in soap buying - didn't people do this before???:poke:

 

Sorry doing this on my phone. 

Having worked with adolescent boys for 30 plus years cleanliness is not a high priority. Soap was like garlic to a vampire.

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1 hour ago, Gorby said:

My step-daughter has written many death certificates over the last few months and regardless of what you believe, they don't just write 'Covid' because that makes their life easier. Our NHS staff aren't that lazy or unethical.

Very true.

My eldest daughter is also a doctor working in A&E and Intensive Care. She completes death certificates like your step-daughter - it's a carefully regulated and precise process (especially post-Shipman - the classic example of certificate fabrication). 

 

SD

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They're just too many in denial, probably as they don't want to face reality, and/or are following blinkered political loyalties, at the very top end desperate to protect the world order and their power through profit, by sending the minions back to do their bidding.   We had a very similar situation in early 1939, the deniers, who I believe were in the majority at the time, who mainly out of fear refused to see the situation but rather sort ever more ridiculous justifications for doing nothing, in the vain hope they'd be spared.  What was it Churchill said "you can't reason with a tiger when your head is in it's mouth" or something along those lines.  

 

Today we have Trump across the pond, who exists in his world of buy it, or threaten it financially and you can get it to do what you want, he's just utterly clueless with the present situation.  Personally I think we've got Dr Strangelove situation with him, only with money, media and the Chinese virus as he like to call it!  My money is he's nuts "in for me, in for me they've all got it in for me" a narcissistic personality disorder or such like.  Then we've got Boris, who I really think believes he's another Churchill (enough said) and his gang all lead by Chummings, now what on earth has he got on them all?

 

History is the key, but history teachers us we never learn, we or rather those in power never do and end up never using it to our advantage.  They somehow feel they're are better or different and will pull it off, as we all know they're not and they almost never do.  The similarities between 1918 - 20 Spanish Flu and now are striking, almost to the months, I think in San Francisco they started to get more cases in Sept/Oct after unlocking and easing restrictive measures, by New Year they were deep in the hurt locker, sadly I fear we are going to follow right along. 

 

I think there's little doubt we'll be back in forms of local lockdown within the next month or so, then comes winter who knows?  The deniers are in the driving seat and unless that changes and fast, history will be proved right yet again!  

 

            

Edited by Kev The Modeller
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No measurement is 100% accurate. That the death figures include both systematic and random errors is to be expected. What matters is the relative size of these errors, and the examples given (had Covid in April and got hit by a bus in June) can't account for more than a handful of cases. I've seen no evidence to suggest the measurement errors are big enough to affect the main conclusions drawn by the authorities, and plenty of evidence to support them. The clearest evidence is the exponential growth curves of both the first and subsequent waves. Bus accidents occur at a broadly constant rate.

It's also not always easy to determine if a death in August is caused by a Covid case in April or not - what if someone who had no history of illness spent a month on a ventilator with Covid in April recovered fully and then dies of a lung infection?

 

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Most of the newspapers sing from one or the other political hymn sheet, when I I read it on the BBC website (which I personally believe is about the most unbiased source of news we have) I'll start to accept that the death rate is lower than currently stated, although there is no way I will ever believe the figure of 4,000 – that's just ridiculously low and doesn't coincide with what I'm hearing from those with first hand experience.

Until then, I'll put this down to someone with a politically motivated axe to grind, thoroughly massaging the figures. If we accept the spin on face value, we will pat ourselves on the back, say “didn't we do well” and make all the mistakes all over again.

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3 hours ago, jenko said:

Sorry doing this on my phone. 

Having worked with adolescent boys for 30 plus years cleanliness is not a high priority. Soap was like garlic to a vampire.

Exactly one point made by one of our branch members when I polled them regarding the ECs request to club intentions re Telford.  He pointed out how many people don't wash their hands when leaving the toilets at SMW in a normal year.....

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46 minutes ago, Gorby said:

Most of the newspapers sing from one or the other political hymn sheet, when I I read it on the BBC website (which I personally believe is about the most unbiased source of news we have) I'll start to accept that the death rate is lower than currently stated, although there is no way I will ever believe the figure of 4,000 – that's just ridiculously low and doesn't coincide with what I'm hearing from those with first hand experience.

Until then, I'll put this down to someone with a politically motivated axe to grind, thoroughly massaging the figures. If we accept the spin on face value, we will pat ourselves on the back, say “didn't we do well” and make all the mistakes all over again.

 

Sadly the BBC isn't what it used to be and all that work for it are civil servants, over successive years, government pressure has and still is being applied, in a multitude of ways, the biggest being that of budget control.  The current Covid crisis has for me exposed just how much control the government has over the BBC, for weeks I watched minster after minster get what can only be described as 'an easy ride' every morning, they ended up avoiding the likes of ITV/ITN and Channel 4 and have been very selective with radio stations.  Now I'm not a supporter of Piers Morgan but he has been asking difficult questions and he talks in plain language, some of the minsters who run our current government depts are without doubt hopeless a few are incompetent.  Most lack any kind of real world experience, this was completely exposed by the likes of Morgan, so what did they do and still do ignore them.  This is now a cabinet office policy, no doubt lead by Chummings and the man who hid in a fridge and as spent he life just ignoring things he doesn't like, reporters can't now just turn up they have to be invited I believe, what a brilliant way of controlling information, isn't that what dictators do?  Someone like Chummings perhaps the non elected leader of the government!       

 

I think you'll find the BBC is far from balanced anymore, for that you need to look across several platforms, including foreign news, always interesting to see how other see us.  ITV/ITN is just that 'independent' of government budget and personnel pressure.  But with ITN's budget of approx £43m which is dwarfed by the BBC's approx £90m and that a big axe one this current government will want to keep control of.               

Edited by Kev The Modeller
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9 minutes ago, Kev The Modeller said:

Sadly the BBC isn't what it used to be

It isn't, but we don't have much choice.

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On the italian statistic page are some numbers I checked a few weeks ago. The peak in february-march showed more than five times the death rate of the long-term average. Bergamo, one of the hot spots in Italy: 20feb to 31mar: this year 6238 death, same period over the last five years: 1180 death . Over the whole country, 90946 death this year, the same period average of the last 5 years: 65592. Interesting that "only" roughly half of the overmortality is contributed to covid, so many people must have died without diagnostic.

And this are just figures. There were homes for the elderly where a third of the inhabitants died within one month. My parents are from Bergamo, so I heard many stories about what went on.

 

for those who like the statistics: https://www.istat.it/it/files//2020/05/Rapporto_Istat_ISS.pdf (it's italian, but I think the pdf can be translated online)

 

Alex

 

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Guys, we've drifted far :offtopic: so can we get back on it please?  It's Telford, not the veracity or otherwise of news outlets, statistical analyses etc.  One of the reasons this topic has gone on so long is that people have exercised restraint, although it has been close on occasion.  Please keep on topic folks.  We should keep it open for the information it will eventually contain.

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Most newspapers struggle to deal in even basic stats, obviously not part of a journalism degree. The big concern with Covid right from the start (at least among medical and nursing staff in primary care and infectious diseases) was that it had the potential to kill people whose respiratory system was in anyway compromised as well as those who were at risk due to immunosuppression etc. If you think about for a moment, the former is a big group of potential victims of a disease whose action and course is not still fully understood. 

There are also a lot of misconceptions about the beaucracy of death. Death can certified by a registered medical practitioner (doctor). In certain circumstances a death has to be reported to the coroner who then makes a decision on what action is required (PM, inquest, referall for further investigation by another body, etc.). The cause of death recorded may in itself be complicated as there needs to be accuracy and clarity in describing what a person has died from. Therefore, the example given of dying as a result of being run over by a bus is not going to have that as the cause of death. It is true that is what happened, but the cause of death will be a description of the trauma that led to the cessation of life. In most cases death occurs as a result of a combination of circumstances, thus my mother died last year of a respiratory arrest. If this had been the only thing the doctor had given as cause of death, it would have been rejected when the death was registered with the registrar as it failed to give a true picture of my mother's state of health at the time of her death as she had chronic and progressive heart failure. The other thing that I think confuses people is that the doctor certifies death, but a death certificate (the bit of paper you tout around banks, insurance companies etc.) is issued by the registrar for the area the death occurred in. The ONS will be using the returns that the registrars are obliged to return and in part accounts for the lag in numbers. 

Sorry for the length of this post. This is something I had to explain in the day job back in the day. The system in the UK is quite robust, especially after Harold Shipman. 

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Any further news about SMW  Is there a go/no go decision date?

 

I assume a key practical consideration is what level of trader support there will be.

 

Edited by 3DStewart
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7 minutes ago, 3DStewart said:

But none of this is about SMW in November, which Mike has asked to restrict our comments to.

 

Any further news?  Is there a go/no go decision date?

I think the decision gets made by the end of this month if I recall the comment in the latest issue of the IPMS magazine correctly. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I really don’t see this happening this year. It would be the only large indoor event and with a maximum of 30 people gatherings, and I’ve never managed to be 2m away from other people at SMW 🤣

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2 hours ago, Black Knight said:

With pockets of C19 increasing restrictions are coming in of no more than 15 people in a place.

Isn't that just Northern Ireland at the moment?

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So even if I buy a ticket to cross the pond for Telford, I might (at the last-minute) just get hit with a UK 14 self-isolation stay before I see the light of day in the UK (and miss the show).  So much for a four day trip!  Then I might get hit with the same on my return the other way.  

It does not look likely to happen... 

PM

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On 22/08/2020 at 21:32, Patrick Martin said:

So even if I buy a ticket to cross the pond for Telford, I might (at the last-minute) just get hit with a UK 14 self-isolation stay before I see the light of day in the UK (and miss the show).  So much for a four day trip!  Then I might get hit with the same on my return the other way.  

It does not look likely to happen... 

PM

No it doesn't. While I have considerable sympathy with the IPMS committee organising the show, and fully understand the commercial implications of their initiating any unilateral change to the show booking, I can't see how this show will happen this year. Telford is now a very lonely outlier in terms of being the only show not cancelled this year, and it would seem that a combination of national and perhaps local Covid-related factors will inevitably lead to it joining the long list of already cancelled events. 

 

SD

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Some very good points from Safety Dad. The IPMS Committee are obviously waiting for as long as possible to see what the TIC does and what happens with the pandemic. It cannot be easy but I have written it off this year. 

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I seem to remember hearing a report at the weekend that a Covid 19 vaccine will not be available until winter 2021-2022

If that proves to be the case then I suspect that not only this years show,  but next years show as well are highly likely to be cancelled 

In the unlikely event that this years show does go ahead I dont think I would feel safe attending anyway

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