Tiger331 Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Let's not jump to conclusions. Nothing I have read on this forum or others leads me to believe that we have absolute confirmation that WNW will cease trading (as opposed to a suspension of trading due to the ongoing COVID-19 situation). Even the so-called 'informed source' on the ww1aircraftmodels forum is unconvincing in his assertion regarding the demise of WNW. Just because the POC from WNW has 'failed to respond' to an e-mail does not mean the signs are ominious. Like many of us, he is probably busy working on other, more demanding, family or business issues than feeding the rumour mill. That said, there does need to be an element of management expectation amongst the modelling community, and not just about WNW. I suspect that practically every model manufacturer and aftermarket supplier is going to be impacted for at least a year or more after (or if) the COVID-19 crisis has passed. Practically everything these days is reliant on global supply chains, manufacturing etc so even if the crisis has passed, for example in China, and manufacturing starts up, it will take an age to bring all of the other component parts in the manufacturing, collation, packaging system together again before any hobby company is in a position to move forward with its release and future project programme. Combined with this will be the overall reduction in demand based on the fact that most economies are going to go into recession, if not depression, in the short to medium term and maybe even longer. As a result, I very much doubt we will see kits like the WNW Avro Lancaster or, say, the Airfix Avro Vulcan any time in 2020. I suspect it will be 2021 at the earliest before we see any of the projected 2020 releases unless they are already in the supply chain. Returning to the WNW saga, let's just take it one day at a time and not jump to any conclusions until we have more 'hard' evidence and less rumoring on which to base our fears (notwithstanding the ethos of this particular forum topic !). Keep Calm and Stay Safe, everyone ! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabre Freak Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, Tiger331 said: Let's not jump to conclusions. We are in a Sub Forum titled "The Rumourmonger" and, last I checked in the 21st Century. Not "Jumping to Conclusions" is a bit like not trying not to laugh at a Monty Python skit... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
593jones Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 It would be very sad if WNW did go under, I am hoping the closure is only temporary. I have three WNW kits in the stash that I haven't dared to start on, and whilst I would have loved the Lancaster, due to space and financial considerations I would have had to limit it to the cockpit section. Hopefully one day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMA131Marine Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 31 minutes ago, Tiger331 said: Let's not jump to conclusions. It’s hardly jumping to conclusions when the person who is in charge of day-to-day operations at WnW says, in response to a question about the future of the company, “things look grim.” That’s a statement that, barring a miracle or at least something very unexpected, the end of the company is more likely than not. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMA131Marine Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, 593jones said: It would be very sad if WNW did go under, I am hoping the closure is only temporary. I have three WNW kits in the stash that I haven't dared to start on, and whilst I would have loved the Lancaster, due to space and financial considerations I would have had to limit it to the cockpit section. Hopefully one day! It’s certainly reasonable to think that, whatever the fate of the current WnW, the moulds will survive and eventually find a new owner as they are of high quality and the kits are highly regarded. Then again, who knows what Peter Jackson thinks is reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger331 Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 31 minutes ago, VMA131Marine said: It’s hardly jumping to conclusions when the person who is in charge of day-to-day operations at WnW says, in response to a question about the future of the company, “things look grim.” That’s a statement that, barring a miracle or at least something very unexpected, the end of the company is more likely than not. Please READ what I stated. We have no definitive (i.e. verbatim) statement from Wing Nut Wings......Its a quote and until I read something more 'official' from WNW directly I will not jump to conclusions nor would I recommend others to do the same. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncan B Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Tiger331 said: Even the so-called 'informed source' on the ww1aircraftmodels forum is unconvincing in his assertion regarding the demise of WNW. Just because the POC from WNW has 'failed to respond' to an e-mail does not mean the signs are ominious. 27 minutes ago, Tiger331 said: Please READ what I stated. The above is what you originally stated, I did what you requested and read it again. At the point you made your initial post you clearly hadn't read all the discussion on WW1Aircraftmodels or you would have known that rather than failing to respond Richard Alexander (General Manager WnW) had responded and clearly stated that " Nothing is finalized yet but it looks pretty grim. Very sad. I hope you understand that I have nothing else I can say at this time." While I agree that the above statement does not give absolute confirmation that WnW is about to cease trading completely it is a pretty strong statement for a senior WnW Manager to make and he would know the effect that his statement would have on the reputation of the Business. Through my own dealings with Richard I know he puts nothing higher than the reputation of Wingnut Wings and I know how I am interpreting his statement. I honestly hope I am wrong but we will soon find out for sure. On another matter, with regards to the moulds if things do down the tubes. Sir PJ doesn't need the money and we know how stubborn he has been with regards to other business ventures. For example, his version of The Dambusters has been stalled for years over his insistence that the Film has to include the correct name for Guy Gibson's dog to be historically correct. Anyone who thinks that it is a certainty he will allow the moulds to be sold on might not have taken into account how he might feel about his 'pet projects'. Why would he give over all his hard work to another model company just because he won't be using the moulds? Pure speculation on my part but it is a possibility. Duncan B 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chimpion Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 53 minutes ago, Duncan B said: Anyone who thinks that it is a certainty he will allow the moulds to be sold on might not have taken into account how he might feel about his 'pet projects'. Why would he give over all his hard work to another model company just because he won't be using the moulds? It might not be up to him. IF WnW folds, the mechanism might be important. If it were to go into some kind of administration, the administrators will be bound to repay any creditors with the proceeds of the assets of the company if they can't find a way for the company to be rescued. I have no idea what NZ law looks like, but I imagine there will be a similar kind of obligation imposed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HMSLion Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 3 hours ago, Tiger331 said: ...there does need to be an element of management expectation amongst the modelling community, and not just about WNW. I suspect that practically every model manufacturer and aftermarket supplier is going to be impacted for at least a year or more after (or if) the COVID-19 crisis has passed. Practically everything these days is reliant on global supply chains, manufacturing etc so even if the crisis has passed, for example in China, and manufacturing starts up, it will take an age to bring all of the other component parts in the manufacturing, collation, packaging system together again before any hobby company is in a position to move forward with its release and future project programme. I agree 100%. Although I think the economy will recover more quickly than people may think, the truth is that a lot of plastic is molded in China, a lot of decals are printed in Italy...and those two countries were hit hard. We're looking at a 90 day slide in schedules, plus restart time for production processes, shipping time, etc. I would expect the total impact to be four to six months. WRT Wingnut Wings, I'm not certain about NZ laws and terms used. Here in the USA, many workers have been "furloughed" - loss of pay, possible loss of benefits, can apply for unemployment benefits...but there is a clear intent to rehire. Given the situation in NZ, I could see that happening to the WNW staff, easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caughtinthemiddle Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 15 minutes ago, HMSLion said: I agree 100%. Although I think the economy will recover more quickly than people may think, the truth is that a lot of plastic is molded in China, a lot of decals are printed in Italy...and those two countries were hit hard. Lots of decals in Italy are still being printed with no intermission, Cartograf is working on full throttle. Chinese manufacturers are mostly working normally as well since more than a month, and the cargo ships pretty normally transport containers The problem is on the other end of the stick: freezing trade and internal transport within the destination countries cuts the potential sales, which otherwise would be much better than normal in this period - in Poland the gov't at least didn't put any major restrictions on online shopping: in result, staff of known to me modelling shops work hard all day to cope with the increased number of orders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TEXANTOMCAT Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 This article seems to think that the manufacturers in our hobby may benefit from lockdown! https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/hobbyist-shares-may-benefit-from-coronavirus-lockdown/ It’s a great shame that WnW doesn’t appear to be one however they are very much Rolls Royce rather than Ford TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlieNZ Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 (edited) 10 hours ago, Rabbit Leader said: ... Honestly, why can’t a business still trade in mail order, that’s just absurd!! Because unless their warehouse and distribution processes are either operated by wizards or robots, the people carrying out that work need to go in to their work place to make that process function. In NZ, that is not possible. Only essential workers, or those workers of companies selling essential goods, are permitted to leave their houses for anything other than purchasing food, medicine or exercise in their immediate neighbourhood. In addition to the restrictions on people leaving their homes, the mail system is limited to delivery of essentials, so even if you are a one person operation working from home, and can stay in your isolation bubble while fulfilling orders, there's no mail system to deliver those orders. Edited April 11, 2020 by CharlieNZ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMA131Marine Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 6 hours ago, Tiger331 said: Please READ what I stated. We have no definitive (i.e. verbatim) statement from Wing Nut Wings......Its a quote and until I read something more 'official' from WNW directly I will not jump to conclusions nor would I recommend others to do the same. You know what they say, “Buy on rumour, sell on news!” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fredag Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 One thing with the wealthy investors, they rarely use/loose their own money. So if the taxpayer funding dries up, maybe that's where this rumour comes from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jo NZ Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Look at their website. It explains that they are not able to work at their office at the moment, like all Kiwis who aren't an essential service. Like the rest of us, they don't know when the lockdown will end so can't promise anything. They are TEMPORARILY closed like the rest of NZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabrejet Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 hours ago, Jo NZ said: Look at their website. It explains that they are not able to work at their office at the moment, like all Kiwis who aren't an essential service. Like the rest of us, they don't know when the lockdown will end so can't promise anything. They are TEMPORARILY closed like the rest of NZ. It's not what's written on the website that people are referring to: there was a semi-official announcement which was unrelated to the current closure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jo NZ Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Sabrejet said: It's not what's written on the website that people are referring to: there was a semi-official announcement which was unrelated to the current closure. An off the cuff quote at a time of extreme stress. Go for the optimistic view 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabrejet Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 I'm all for optimism but it wasn't exactly an off-the-cuff remark. Nor something you'd joke about in that person's position. I see a noted modelling author on another forum also saying the same thing, so it would appear that optimism won't change the result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dekenba Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 59 minutes ago, Jo NZ said: An off the cuff quote at a time of extreme stress. Go for the optimistic view I admire your optimism, sir. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnT Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Que sera sera. Nowt anyone on here can do either way so either they either come back on line or cease trading. A bit like an announcement of a new model with only preliminary cad renders it’s all a bit speculative. No one would want to see any modelling firm go under far less WNW who must be one of the best in the business. I think we just need to sit tight and keep fingers crossed The optimist in me suggests from my experience of corporate insolvencies suggests that the existing moulds will end up somewhere making money for someone. Who and when may or may not be the question. I would not be surprised if something similar to pheonixing went on in a quite legitimate format. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncan B Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 18 hours ago, Chimpion said: It might not be up to him. IF WnW folds, the mechanism might be important. If it were to go into some kind of administration, the administrators will be bound to repay any creditors with the proceeds of the assets of the company if they can't find a way for the company to be rescued. I have no idea what NZ law looks like, but I imagine there will be a similar kind of obligation imposed. It all depends if the Company goes into Administration or he simply closes the doors. If all the creditors are paid and then the doors close then he still owns the remaining assets. Duncan B 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnT Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Just now, Duncan B said: It all depends if the Company goes into Administration or he simply closes the doors. If all the creditors are paid and then the doors close then he still owns the remaining assets. Duncan B Exactly Duncan plus there are receivership and other administration options so lots to guess on. We will just have to wait. Not a patient lot are we ?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncan B Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Just now, JohnT said: Exactly Duncan plus there are receivership and other administration options so lots to guess on. We will just have to wait. Not a patient lot are we ?! I guess we are all hoping for a good outcome while still speculating on the whole situation, it is the Rumourmonger thread after all Duncan B 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody37 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 This rumour could be the best thing for their business. I suspect online sales will have shot up as people try to get a kit before it is no longer available. What ever happens, I hope they pull through this difficult time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graham Boak Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 not if they can't produce nor post. See post 62. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts