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7 minutes ago, Mr T said:

That's because the Swedish government thinks its population is capable of taking responsibility for its actions and being sensible. 

Aargh, fair point.....

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Once you have been exposed to a virus a number of outcomes can occur, you get the disease, recover and have a varying degree of immunity. Some viruses are sneaky and hide in the body. Chicken pox does this and can reappear in later life as shingles. You can carry the virus, not show symptoms and infect others. Finally you can get the virus, your immune system cannot cope and you die. 

I suspect that people will develop some degree of immunity to Covid 19 either by exposure or a vaccine. Exposure to low levels of infection often stimulates the immune system and people do not become ill, or only mildly ill. The problem with Covid 19 is that nobody knows enough to predict what it can do and modelling only takes you so far. 

I think part of the problem is that we have all become a bit blasé about infectious diseases as better nutrition, hygenie and immunisation have made them less common. It is only a century since Spanish Flu killed large numbers of people in Europe (probably the last major infectious disease outbreak in Europe) and although people are apt to dismiss things like measles as trivial illnesses they can cause significant problems and have noticeable mortality rates if left unchecked. How many of us are old enough to remember how parents were scared of polio? 

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3 hours ago, Mr T said:

Mrs T is front line healthcare and is worried and as a retired nursing lecturer, I share her concerns. 

 

You and Mrs T are right to be worried, we all should be.

 

Sir Patrick Vallance FRS FMedSci FRCP, Government Chief Scientific Adviser, last week, week before (?), was quoted in a BBC website article as stating in a radio interview that deaths from Covid-19, if left unchecked, could reach 500k, something like 20k if we isolate/social distance.  That article also states they would be no more or in addition to annual deaths due to overlap of reasons for death.

 

Or something to that effect, my mind is getting a bit foggy having been up 14 hours already and suffering from sleep deprivation quite a lot already recently...

 

Here's the article -

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

 

Personally I don't believe we're being given all the (known) facts by anyone.  Who do we believe about this?

 

I do know this lockdown is causing unnecessary hardship for people however.  Need to get on top of that as well as the virus.

Edited by RobL
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6 minutes ago, Mr T said:

How many of us are old enough to remember how parents were scared of polio? 

Vividly! I was just a kid in the early 50's and I can remember being taken to the doctors for my polio jab. I can also remember the photos in the newspapers of children and adult in iron lungs, and also the deformities caused by that rotten disease.

Measles was one of those childhood diseases that I didn't get as a child, but I did when I was 17. I was in basic training and had returned to Catterick from a 36 hour pass. I managed to throw up on the platform at Darlington station, and again when I got back to camp. When I went to the doc's that morning, he said that it was caused by too much drink the night before, even though I hadn't touched a drop. Within a matter of hours, I was covered in a rash and the troop sergeant, who had a bit of nouse, whipped me back down to the doctors. I think that the sergeant said  few unsavoury things to the Wee Gee Pee (our Scottish medical officer), and within no time at all, I was in isolation in Catterick Military Hospital. After all, it's not ideal to have a squaddy with measles in a barrack room with about 20 others.

 

John.

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Nasty, the older you are the worse these 'minor' childhood diseases are. I had German Measles when I was about 24 and I felt really rough with it. A couple of years ago I had viral pneumonia with symptoms very like that of Covid19 and it completely knocked me out. 

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Blast this lockdown, out of superglue  (which I need for current builds) and not going essential shopping till Thursday, can’t even order any on amazon, delivery is Thursday......

Edited by PhantomBigStu
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43 minutes ago, PhantomBigStu said:

Blast this lockdown, out of superglue  (which I need for current builds) and not going essential shopping till Thursday, can’t even order any on amazon, delivery is Thursday......

I've got a spare bottle. I can stick it in the post. It should be with you by Fri...Oh! Sorry.:doh:

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12 hours ago, Mr T said:

Covid19 is a virus that attacks the upper respiratory tract and lungs,

Could we say that smokers would be at risk more than non-smokers here? Or is it similar to smokers' lungs that are able to work better with whatever O2 is supplied to them?

 

Would the "vaping" people be in that catehory as well perhaps? (I was wondering about that quite recently)

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11 hours ago, PhantomBigStu said:

Blast this lockdown, out of superglue  (which I need for current builds) and not going essential shopping till Thursday, can’t even order any on amazon, delivery is Thursday......

Supermarket, I know out here I've always been able to buy s/glue from the local supermarket, goes on the grocery bill, not out of my modelling funds. :D 

Sorry Stu, just realised you're trying to avoid unecessary trips out, good on you.

Steve.

Edited by stevehnz
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13 hours ago, RobL said:

Personally I don't believe we're being given all the (known) facts by anyone.  Who do we believe about this?

 

I do know this lockdown is causing unnecessary hardship for people however.  Need to get on top of that as well as the virus.

Not sure I agree it is unnecessary hardship, though hardship nonetheless. I read the article & concluded it is all a guessing game. The deaths that may be attributed to monetary factors seem harder to quantify than deaths attributed to flu or indeed covid virus. Truth will only come out when its all done & dusted & even then will only be as good as a learned persons interpretation versus another learned persons interpretation.

Steve.

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Sorry Steve, but leaving people without food/medication, without a means to get food/medication, is wholly unnecessary in this day and age, when plans could and should have been put in place to avoid it during a national crisis.  Don't know what it's like in New Zealand, I am hoping you personally are comfortably off, however here in the UK, people, those least able to help themselves in a crisis, especially those already vulnerable who are least able to support themselves, through no fault of their own, have been left without the means (not just financial) to obtain food due to, among other problems, panic buying, hoarding, and the supermarkets simply not stepping up.  Plans were drawn up late and are still sketchy at best, community groups have been sporadic, mostly in already very affluent areas, and even though an effort is now starting to be made a lot of people are falling through the cracks.

 

Just no excuse for it.

Edited by RobL
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Fair point Rob, I'm guilty of transferring whats happening here to the situation in the UK. I don't say we've got it perfect but its not too bad in that respect, agencies working to support those less able are generally being supported to a reasonable extent. A much smaller population makes this easier of course. I shudder to think what is happening in countries like India & Indonesia etc as this crisis develops in other parts of the world. We're not especially well off but we are comfortable & during this crisis, we're coping OK. Our Govt has ensured supermarkets have stayed open & their supply chains are intact. I visited the local s/mkt today & all was pretty much business as normal, albeit with limited numbers inside, no queuing & everyone behaving themselves, the message has got through there will be no shortages & at least in my part of the country, that seems to be working. In the case of the UK & I suspect the USA, getting on top of the virus at this point may well involve hardship that is now pretty much unavoidable. Unpalatable though that sounds, not to do so, might lead to far greater hardship all around, but if the Govt mobilises its various agencies it should be able to mitigate that hardship in much the same way ours has. Good luck

Steve.

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11 hours ago, hairystick said:

Could we say that smokers would be at risk more than non-smokers here? Or is it similar to smokers' lungs that are able to work better with whatever O2 is supplied to them?

 

Would the "vaping" people be in that catehory as well perhaps? (I was wondering about that quite recently)

Smokers tend to have reduced lung capacity as their lungs become coated in all the c**p from cigarette smoke. O2 saturation in the blood is lower and Carbon Monoxide Sat's are higher (CO bonds to haemoglobin preferentially to O2 and stays longer) and then all the knock ons. One of the things about the much maligned H&S is the reduced incidence of employment related respiratory disease. If for any reason a person has reduced lung capacity or oxygen transport capacity then a disease  that aggressively attacks the respiratory system  even if temporarily, is at much greater risk off serious outcomes. 

According to Mrs T, the new NICE guidelines say Covid19 has an up to seven day incubation period and runs it course for about seven days. If people are not recovering by the end of seven days then they are at an increased risk of dying. 

Edited by Mr T
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1 hour ago, Mr T said:

... up to seven day incubation period and runs it course for about seven days. If people are not recovering by the end of seven days then they are at an increased risk of dying. 

Interesting info. The recovery cycle seems similar to a "normal" cold/flu. Having been through one a week or so before this all blew up, I wasn't allowed back to work until I had clearance from our authorities.

Just a seasonal head cold that never turned viral, not that anyone wanted to listen, so I just went around saying "its only got worse since I got back from China". ;-)

 

 

The lung capacity/efficiency observation came from pressure chamber runs for aircrew. It was noted that smokers* handle the O2 loss better and stay concious longer due to their lungs being used to already running at a reduced O2 processing capacity.

 

* Obviously everyone has a different reaction, but it was a common observation.

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With all the talk here about why didn't they do this and why didn't they do that. The UK isn't unique. Most countries were caught on the hop. Can you just imagine the scene if six months ago, somebody had found that the government was stockpiling test kits, PPE etc. Someone would have written a headline asking why is the government wasting all this money on items for something that may never happen. It's always easy to be wise after the incident. Hind sight is a wonderful thing.

 

John.

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That is interesting about the high altitude tests, however one of the major issues is around how long a person can sustain O2 deficiency, the high altitude tests would have been short term. Long term reduced O2 carrying capacity from whatever cause  leads to whole raft of problems. Smoking also causes direct damage to the lungs, thus creating a vicious circle. 

There is new research just published about how Covid19 gets into the system. It has been found that the virus attaches itself to protien receptors in the cell wall much more firmly than other similar viruses like SARS, which means that less viruses are needed to cause infection. They think that some drugs may inhibit take up of the virus, but that is dome way down the road. Isolation all of sudden seems to make a lot of sense at present. 

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1 hour ago, Bullbasket said:

It's always easy to be wise after the incident. Hind sight is a wonderful thing.

Except that it isn't hindsight. Imperial College undertook an excercise in 2016 (Operation Cygnus) that showed that an epidemic would overwhelm the NHS and submitted the report to ministers. They did nothing.

 

John.

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6 minutes ago, johnd said:

Except that it isn't hindsight. Imperial College undertook an excercise in 2016 (Operation Cygnus) that showed that an epidemic would overwhelm the NHS and submitted the report to ministers. They did nothing.

 

John.

Without getting political, what a surprise. 

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16 hours ago, hairystick said:

Could we say that smokers would be at risk more than non-smokers here? Or is it similar to smokers' lungs that are able to work better with whatever O2 is supplied to them?

 

Would the "vaping" people be in that catehory as well perhaps? (I was wondering about that quite recently)

The data from China suggests strongly that smoking significantly increases the risk.  Just under half of the adult male population in China smoke, compared with under 2% of adult females. Historic rates of smoking were much higher, especially for males.  Age related death rates for males from C-19 were a little under 2x females. Obviously, this doesn't prove causality, but it is suggestive of an association between smoking (via the impact smoking has on the cardiovascular system) and C-19 mortality.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by iang
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An upside to all this is major air pollution is decreasing. We have deer on the streets in Romford, Goats in Llandudno, dolphins in Venice, wild boar in Barcelona, and a critically endangered Spotted Malabar civet walking the streets in India.

 

All this while humans are confined due to them eating bats.

 

Maybe the planet is trying to tell us something?

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On 30/03/2020 at 00:18, RobL said:

 

(bear with me here, I know this sentence will not be popular) Covid-19 according to the figures is no worse than seasonal flu, something apparently admitted by one or two of the .....

Rob, forgive me but that statement simply could not be more wrong. It can’t go without comment. 
 

First off I am perhaps better placed to comment in that first my wife is an infection control specialist with the NHS. 

Secondly she was in hospital yesterday with Covid19 more correctly known as SARS 2. 
 

She does not have a fever, nor a sore throat or cough or any of what might be thought typical flu symptoms. 
 

What she does have from it though is blurred vision, tremors throughout the muscles of her body, extreme fatigue, the sensation of incontinence in her bladder and bowel, extreme pressure headache, weakness in limbs, really painful neck - not muscular, sensation of vomiting, sensation of pressure on chest and respiratory sensations and a few more.  The diagnosis is that the virus is attacking her nervous system and she can expect to be fatigued for 2-4 months. Quite a few of the symptoms are similar to those experienced when affected to a minor degree by a nerve agent as our ex military members might spot. 

 

Google “Covid19 and it’s affects on the nervous system” and read the technical medical articles coming out of Italy and China medics who are neurologists. It’s clear from post mortem examinations that the virus can be found in the nervous system and brain stem. So far there is no understanding of the mechanism as to how the virus is doing this or what to do about it. In France one doctor has claimed anti malarial drugs have been successfully used. 
 

Yesterday my wife was examined and the senior consultant neurologist interviewed her. She has exchanged emails with one of the top Scottish neurologists in Edinburgh. She is back home on the basis there is no treatment so either she gets better - good - or it gets worse and becomes a blue light - not so good. 
 

It doesn’t look  “just like flu “ to me nor I suspect to those who have taken the decision to close down the country. I now understand why they have. 
 

PS. Should add that she is a forty something healthy fit non smoking ex gymnast at  national competition level. I had it too and it affected me like a bad cold only. It’s hitting different folks in completely different ways and so far they don’t know why

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19 hours ago, RobL said:

 among other problems, panic buying, hoarding, and the supermarkets simply not stepping up.  

 

 

 

There was no way any supermarket could cope with the demand a couple of weeks ago, way more busy than any Christmas which is difficult enough with many months of planning for labour, warehouse space, transport and stock, but with like even a months notice, no chance, all they could do was send out what they have and increase orders, get agencies/owner operators and hope to get the overtime in

Now it's all calmed down, other way in fact, too much on some things, we've now got 100's of toilet rolls lol

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54 minutes ago, JohnT said:

Rob, forgive me but that statement simply could not be more wrong. It can’t go without comment. 
 

First off I am perhaps better placed to comment in that first my wife is an infection control specialist with the NHS. 

Secondly she was in hospital yesterday with Covid19 more correctly known as SARS 2. 
 

She does not have a fever, nor a sore throat or cough or any of what might be thought typical flu symptoms. 
 

What she does have from it though is blurred vision, tremors throughout the muscles of her body, extreme fatigue, the sensation of incontinence in her bladder and bowel, extreme pressure headache, weakness in limbs, really painful neck - not muscular, sensation of vomiting, sensation of pressure on chest and respiratory sensations and a few more.  The diagnosis is that the virus is attacking her nervous system and she can expect to be fatigued for 2-4 months. Quite a few of the symptoms are similar to those experienced when affected to a minor degree by a nerve agent as our ex military members might spot. 

 

Google “Covid19 and it’s affects on the nervous system” and read the technical medical articles coming out of Italy and China medics who are neurologists. It’s clear from post mortem examinations that the virus can be found in the nervous system and brain stem. So far there is no understanding of the mechanism as to how the virus is doing this or what to do about it. In France one doctor has claimed anti malarial drugs have been successfully used. 
 

Yesterday my wife was examined and the senior consultant neurologist interviewed her. She has exchanged emails with one of the top Scottish neurologists in Edinburgh. She is back home on the basis there is no treatment so either she gets better - good - or it gets worse and becomes a blue light - not so good. 
 

It doesn’t look  “just like flu “ to me nor I suspect to those who have taken the decision to close down the country. I now understand why they have. 
 

PS. Should add that she is a forty something healthy fit non smoking ex gymnast at  national competition level. I had it too and it affected me like a bad cold only. It’s hitting different folks in completely different ways and so far they don’t know why

First chunk of sensible, sober writing I've seen in a while. Thanks for sharing man and I hope your missus pulls through soon!

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