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Adam Poultney

737 crash today

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13 hours ago, Moggy said:

The bomb: two "ticketed" passengers failed to board the crashed aircraft - a classic tactic to get the luggage (bomb) onboard w/o getting blown up yourself.

 

I paid my way through university as a baggage mangler.

 

Since Lockerbie (it's that classic a tactic) hold baggage is all individually numbered and individually counted onto the aircraft. All hold baggage for international flights is supposed to be X-rayed before loading too. Sometimes barcode scanners are used to count on the bags as they come through from check-in/bag-drop to the baggage hall, and the manual way is that every bag the mangler picks off the belt has one of its tear-off stickers with that bag's unique ID number pulled off and stuck to a card.

 

If it's a big plane using the container-bin things the bin is sealed up with its manifest in the hall. If it's a smaller aircraft (and the 737 is one of these) the manglers load the bags in individually, and the supervisor counts the bags on. That number will not exceed the number of checked in bags, although missing bags is not uncommon for various practical reasons. If not, the Dispatcher doesn't accept the loading and they need to be offloaded and recounted. If not, the Captain will not accept the loading from the Dispatcher.

 

If a checked-in passenger with checked-in baggage doesn't board the aircraft then the baggage hold is unloaded whilst we'd dig out the unique ID numbers we're looking for. Again the Dispatcher and then Captain must not accept the aircraft if we didn't. It was always a PITA and there was always a mad panic as the aircraft was usually now going to be late, and somehow it was raining each time we did this. I only worked weekends and saw it 3 or 4 times in 3 years. Each time the passenger was drunk in the departures lounge bar, but that's how it goes.

 

I'd be astonished if someone managed to load a bomb aboard a scheduled flight using this classic technique in this day in age because it requires multiple people in different companies to be negligent to allow a checked-in bag to depart when its passenger didn't.

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Justin Trudeau is being very careful of what to say, he was being proded earlier quite a bit. See what is said tomorrow, which is today shortly on this side of the world. Trump is also talking differently this week.  Found this bit of French news which seems to be the most current at the moment, https://www.france24.com/en/20200110-iran-plane-crash-ukraine-boeing-canada-us-usa-washington-tehran-trudeau-soleimani-france-le-drian

Iran is now allowing investigators in, see what they come up with.

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From what I have seen from various sources, (global, not just Western) it certainly leans towards a shoot down. I have seen the missile impact videos (plural, from different angles)

I have seen a schematic which would place the missile head (if in context) in the area it was allegedly found, at the end of it's ballistic trajectory from launch point, via the impact point. It was allegedly reported on Iranian TV than an 'enemy fighter' was shot down at the time of the impact, then quickly withdrawn from broadcast. Further reports state US military satellites confirmed 2 missile launches at the appropriate time.

If it allegedly looks like a duck.......

R.I.P. to all concerned.

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6 hours ago, Jamie @ Sovereign Hobbies said:

I'd be astonished if someone managed to load a bomb aboard a scheduled flight using this classic technique in this day in age because it requires multiple people in different companies to be negligent to allow a checked-in bag to depart when its passenger didn't.

We also know that this flight's departure was delayed, for which we don't yet know the cause, but it certainly is consistent with the baggage checked in by the no-show passengers being found and off-loaded - standard aviation practice.  

Edited by Work In Progress

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Just saw this now, seems the most matter of fact.

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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/iran-admits-unintentionally-shot-ukrainian-plane-200111040653138.html

Story changed again. See if any evidence comes up.

Edited by busnproplinerfan

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Glad to see they have finally admitted it, I think everyone knew what had happend.

 

At least now everyone can move on. Will be interested to see their next move on this. It wont bring back those who have died though.

 

Julien

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2 hours ago, Julien said:

Glad to see they have finally admitted it, I think everyone knew what had happend.

 

At least now everyone can move on. Will be interested to see their next move on this. It wont bring back those who have died though.

 

Julien

Hopefully we can move on and clear up the mess. Hopefully it doesn't escalate into anything. This will still unfold for a bit yet. Not to get political, but the world is watching a lot more now.

Edited by busnproplinerfan

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Owning up is the best strategy.

 

Denying it (in the face of growing evidence) blows it up much bigger with a corresponding increased fallout and further loss of credibility/prestige.

On the event, this ghastly error has robbed Iran of any legitimacy and (eventual) sympathy regarding the pursuit of further revenge attacks.

 

Letting grunts run around armed with MANPADS near a busy airport is... well... I lack words.

 

Here north of the Öresund TV has introduced the population to the families of the murdered passengers - they should show that on Iranian TV.

 

Moggy

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Moggy said:

Letting grunts run around armed with MANPADS near a busy airport is... well... I lack words.

I had too look that acronym up...

found this,  which was surprisingly informative....  and @Moggy  leaves me pretty speechless too.

 

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Have not come across any mention of 'Grunts with MANPADS' , everything in print so far seem to suggest something far more sophisticated and involving a group activity as suggested by the current head of the Revolutionary Guard talking at today's Press Conference saying what has been translated  along the lines of 'we made a poor decision' regarding engaging the airliner although that might not prevent some lowly conscript being suspended from a crane jib as is the local habit.

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6 hours ago, Moggy said:

Letting grunts run around armed with MANPADS near a busy airport is... well... I lack words.

1. Where did you get the information that the plane was shot down by a missile launched by a MANPADS and not TOR or OSA missile as written early?

2. I don't know how this was all done by Iran, yet their armed forces were built for a long time according to Western standards, but as a person who was taught as a platoon commander of MANPADS,

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K38_Igla

by Soviet standards, no one runs anywhere. As I was taught, a platoon should occupy a region defined by the command, after which the commander distributes the most dangerous sectors from the point of view of attack between the military personnel. At the same time, a command post is deployed to which information is received in the event of an air attack threat.

Information comes from the command post of the air defense forces on an electronic "tablet":

pep_1l15-1.JPG

Information on the tablet comes through the radio channel, and if the plane is alien, then the mark on the screen blinks and there is a sound signal in the speakers, if the plane is your own, then the mark simply glows and does not blink, and there is no sound signal in the speakers. Then, if the aircraft is foreign, the commander only needs to give the command to the military personnel in the sector of which the target should appear. Each MANPADS Igla is also equipped with a friend-or-foe  recognition system and it does not allow a shot to be fired at its plane.  True, the system can be disabled. But I absolutely do not know how the recognition system friend-or-foe MANPADS Igla

reacts to foreign passenger aircraft and their signals.  Most likely, as I think, she will perceive them as an enemy.

But all this is true only for the MANPADS

Igla, earlier models as

MANPADS Strela type do not have such equipment.  What about the Chinese

MANPADS options, I do not know.

 

But here it’s not a matter of weapons, because it’s in place MANPADS Igla may be MANPADS Stinger, and the result would be the same, here it’s a matter of organizing Air Defense.

 

As for the deployment of Air Defense Systems near the civil airfield.  

 

Any airfield are the goals of the first strike, therefore either stationary air defense systems or mobile air defense systems are always nearby.

 

The probably main mistake was that they did not close the airspace for flights.  But if they closed the airspace, then the plane and passengers would remain at the airport and therefore there was a risk that they, together with the airfield, would be counter  attack  on the ground from air.

 

But it happened, what happened and this plane added to this list*:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airliner_shootdown_incidents

 

https://ru.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Список_сбитых_гражданских_воздушных_судов

 

because, unfortunately, while there are wars and conflicts, this list will be supplemented by new aircraft, alas ....

 

What will happen next is impossible to predict .....

 

B.R.

Serge

 

_________________

* - Why did I give links to the Russian and English versions of Wikipedia?  This is an interesting moment!  In the English version, for example, there is no mention of this disaster:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_1611

 

 

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Whoever shot the missile, did they not have have knowledge or reports of what's taking off at the time? I haven't seen any news today yet. Seems like a lack of communication on their part.

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2 hours ago, EwenS said:

Remember the USS Vincennes in 1988?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

....or Siberia Airlines shoot down over Black Sea:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812

as can be understood from the above link, the state which itself did not pay compensation for the plane, did not plead guilty, did not punish the guilty, now demands that it do it  another state....

🤗

Okay, let’s leave these anologies and consider strange details about the flight from Iran.

 

On some Russian internet resource posting this picture (I don't know fake this or not!) flights departing before and after the downed plane:

Screenshot-20200113-172120.jpg

 

If this true, then strange mistake 

the operator who took the plane for a cruise missile where out of 176 people on board 157 ( other version 130)  people took tickets on an Iranian passport,

however, most of them were of Iranian descent and had dual citizenship.

As you understand, in the event of the downing of any other aircraft from those flying on the same day, the reaction would have been stronger.

 

The next point is that, according to some resources, TOR was handed over to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard corps

(led by the murdered

Qasem Soleimani)

from the Iranian armed forces shortly before.

You say so what?

The problem is that Iran is not monolithic in matters of relations with the West, of course there are warring groups, some of which believe that it is necessary to make concessions to the West and agree on any conditions to lift sanctions, while other groups naturally do not think so. But even among those who want to negotiate, there are differences, because some want to negotiate with the Democrats, and others with the Republicans. At rumors murdered

Qasem Soleimani 

was among those who had contacts with the Democrats....

 

Next to continue or do  understand?

 

And this is only a small part of the mosaic which is slightly opened, so the opinion that the two leaders are measured in size is somewhat primitive and simplified.

 

Against this background, the downing of a Boeing can be both a tragic mistake and can be monstrous games of various leaders and government group, but we will never know about these games.

 

But each person decides the need for such knowledge for himself, just like each person decides for himself whether to let models out of the box, by limiting himself and trusting the model manufacturer or to search for information, photos, drawings and rivets himself.

 

In any case, life is beautiful and amazing, so appreciate every moment of it and let there be as little bad news as possible in your life, like the one we are discussing in this topic!

 

B.R.

Serge

 

P.S.

As I understand it, according to statistics, the plane is still the safest mode of transport no matter what!

 

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Can we try to keep this discussion steered away from the politics, this forum isn't the place to discuss that.

Edited by Adam Poultney

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27 minutes ago, Aardvark said:

....or Siberia Airlines shoot down over Black Sea:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812

as can be understood from the above link, the state which itself did not pay compensation for the plane, did not plead guilty, did not punish the guilty, now demands that it do it  another state....

 

Agreed.  And I will add one more point. If Iran was attacking the US bases, it should have closed its airspace for commercial flights so that such tragic incident had not taken place. 

Edited by stalal

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I'm not comfortable with the amateur sleuthing going on after the deaths of a substantial number of people due to what seems to be an error (time will tell).  It is starting to become a political discussion due to the nature of the circumstances, and although everyone seems to be getting along fairly well so far, I'm going to close it.  Thank you all for your restraint during the thread, and my personal condolences to everyone affected.

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