Jump to content
This site uses cookies! Learn More

This site uses cookies!

You can find a list of those cookies here: mysite.com/cookies

By continuing to use this site, you agree to allow us to store cookies on your computer. :)

Adam Poultney

737 crash today

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

https://aeronewsglobal.com/video-crashed-in-iran-boeing-737-800-ukraine-international-flight-ps752/

:(

edit: please try not to get political, this is Britmodeller not a politics page 

 

 

Edited by Adam Poultney

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Ukranian embassy has subsequently revoked its earlier comments about "engine failure. not a missile" The debris field is enormous and there is puncture damage visible across large portions of the wreckage of the airframe. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Work In Progress said:

The Ukranian embassy has subsequently revoked its earlier comments about "engine failure. not a missile" The debris field is enormous and there is puncture damage visible across large portions of the wreckage of the airframe. 

I think that was self evident from the debris and the video. It'd have to be a pretty catastrophic engine failure to break up an airliner and have to go down in flames like that. Honestly the original statement just sounds like something from the media going after clicks from people who don't know aviation. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RIP to crew and passengers.  Condolences to the families.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pictures on twitter of SA-15 parts on the ground, and wreckage with puncture marks.

 

Why who know? Guaranteed there will be no Boeing or NTSB involvement in the enquiry tho. 

 

Sad for those involved

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://www.hollywoodlanews.com/iran-shot-down-boeing-737-plane/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Julien said:

Pictures on twitter of SA-15 parts on the ground, and wreckage with puncture marks.

 

Why who know? Guaranteed there will be no Boeing or NTSB involvement in the enquiry tho. 

 

Sad for those involved

 

This one?

 

23174966_0_image_m_37_1578534181449_d4a1

 

I note the source is Twitter and the UK tabloids have picked up on it, but the actual location and date are as yet unverified I think. I am hesitant to believe everything I see online these days. The engine wreckage is clearly missing a number of turbine blades all together from the same disc. It's not obvious which parts of the fuselage are actually shown which have all the punctures. The wing section full of holes could maybe be caused by turbine blades. The puncture seen near the tip of the fin would be harder to explain by a 737 catastrophic engine failure, but it is a rocky area and it could have been caused during the ground impact.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes that one, and yes it not in great context, however taking many things into consideration t is looking less like an accident, however doubt we will get an impartial investigation? so we might never know. An engine these days should not shed blades, but it can happen.

 

Julien

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Possibly a terrible own goal on the Iranians part,

 

At 023 on the film you see a light coming upto the aircraft from the 4 oclock position and the explosion not long after the two lights collide, no doubt there could be other reasons, strange that the Iranians will not hand over the Black box to Ukraine officials and Boeing.

 

Link to a US Defense block from PPRUNE Forum.

 

https://defence-blog.com/news/ukrainian-passenger-jet-crashed-after-being-hit-by-iranian-tor-m1-missile.html

 

 

 

Edited by TIGER HOBBIESLIMITED

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A simpler explanation: a bomb?

 

The missile debris is completely out of context - it could be anything anywhere. For example - Iraq must be almost paved with expended ammo this days.

In this age of fake news, together with the confrontation between Iran & the US I would not rush to conclusions.

 

Moggy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, TIGER HOBBIESLIMITED said:

Possibly a terrible own goal on the Iranians part,

 

At 023 on the film you see a light coming upto the aircraft from the 4 oclock position and the explosion not long after the two lights collide, no doubt there could be other reasons, strange that the Iranians will not hand over the Black box to Ukraine officials and Boeing.

 

 

I think that 'converging' light is actually a car being driven along a road on the near horizon - check out the flickering of that light in the seconds before the crash, and there are small trees on the same plane highlighted after the flash that the car would have driven behind. I think its just coincidental and a trick of the camera angle that makes them look as if they are converging in space. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 1/8/2020 at 2:52 PM, Work In Progress said:

The Ukranian embassy has subsequently revoked its earlier comments about "engine failure. not a missile" 

And what?

19 hours ago, Julien said:

Pictures on twitter of SA-15 parts on the ground, and wreckage with puncture marks.

 

18 hours ago, bentwaters81tfw said:

 

3 hours ago, TIGER HOBBIESLIMITED said:

There is absolutely no evidence that the Boeing was hit by a missile, but the headings already read:

 

iran-shot-down-boeing-737-plane/

.....

jet-crashed-after-being-hit-by-iranian-tor-m1-missile

 

.....presumption of innocence, no not heard.....O.K. 

suppose  Iranian

Tor really shoot down B-737, just suppose, and what and what does it prove?

Tor it's last Soviet generation Anti Aircraft complex.

Reading Wikipedia:

https://ru.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Тор_(зенитный_ракетный_комплекс)

"It can work both manually, with the participation of operators, and fully automatic.  In this case, the Tor system itself controls the designated airspace and independently knocks down all air targets that are not recognized by the friend or foe system."

Of course, if  Tor is included in a  automatic air defense system, (and I suspect that Iran has a automatic air defense system), then it can independently execute system commands without operator intervention. But any computer system or local area network can be hacked. The example of hacking just the Iranian computer networks responsible for the centrifuge producing nuclear fuel

(read the section

"Iran as a target" )

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet

See also 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitro_Zeus

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Olympic_Games

 

is just indicative.

 

And who to blame in this case?  Unknown hackers?  So you still have to find traces of hacking the Iranian air defense system!

There is another option.  The system could just be disconnected 

friend or foe....and who to blame in this case?

But the main question, if this is not a tragic mistake or a tragic coincidence, why does Iran need this?

On a board crash aircraft was Iranian citizen in mass, yes some was Canadian  citizenship but they have Arabic names and surnames.

 

 

Why should Iran intentionally bring down a plane with Iranians?  From the point of view of the conspiracy theory, there is only one logical explanation: there was something in the plane or someone who should not have left Iran. I won’t be surprised if such a version will be announced soon.

But in this case, the question remains unclear, but what prevented Iranian  them from simply raising the fighters into the air and landing this plane in Iran? There is no logical answer.

 

Therefore, I'm sorry, but from my point of view, most likely what happened plane crash associated with engine failure. If other events took place, then we will never know the truth about them.

 

B.R.

Serge

 

P.S.

I very much refrain from voicing some versions of related events, because they can be regarded as politics. But these versions of what is happening are quite curious, and very much go against the generally accepted interpretations of current events both in the West and the East.

 

Edited by Aardvark

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

No one here has claimed to know who may have fired a missile or why. 

One cannot rule out accidents especially when local air defence units are on full alert because they've just launched a large scale missile attack on a US military base and are therefore obliged to consider aerial retaliation as a possibility. 

Would not be the first time that an airliner got shot down by mistake in times of tension between US and Iran.

Edited by Work In Progress

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Moggy said:

A simpler explanation: a bomb?

 

The missile debris is completely out of context - it could be anything anywhere. For example - Iraq must be almost paved with expended ammo this days.

In this age of fake news, together with the confrontation between Iran & the US I would not rush to conclusions.

 

Moggy

A few miles north-east of Tehran airport is not the same environment as Iraq. When was the last time large numbers of SAMs or MANPADs were fired near Tehran?

And how is a bomb a simpler explanation, in the operational environment prevailing on the night?

Edited by Work In Progress

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The picture reproduced in the media (seen elsewhere in this thread) purporting to be the missile that allegedly brought the 737 down shows the tail of a missile lying in a piece of ground you can find anywhere in the Middle East. When you see a picture of a piece of ground on the internet w/o any geographical context (such as an identifiable geographic landmark) it is impossible to fairly link it to a particular geographic spot or timeframe.

 

Without a reliable source... my first guess would be a picture taken in Syria, The Internet is awash with similar pictures showing expended ammo taken in Syria,

 

The bomb: two "ticketed" passengers failed to board the crashed aircraft - a classic tactic to get the luggage (bomb) onboard w/o getting blown up yourself.

 

It obviates the necessity for trigger-itchy missile crews, hacker intervention, the extremely unlikelihood of an automatic defence systen w/o whitelisted airspace in the immediate vicinity of Iran's busiest airpost,  the incredible stupidity necessary to manually launch missiles at a registered flight on the normal flightpath out of Iran's busiest airport, etc.

See? Much simpler.

 

On the other side no-one has claimed the responsability for bringing down the plane.

 

My personal view? Wait for reliable information before passing judgement.

 

Moggy (with no axe to grind)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4 seconds in.

 

https://twitter.com/w4lk3d/status/1215374216838746118

 

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1215353889442144258

 

The buildings to the left of the camera were constructed after the most recent Google Earth satellite image (September 2019), and are visible in a Terraserver satellite image. You can see our approximate geolocation on Google Maps here: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Parand,+Tehran+Province,+Iran/@35.4899501,50.9075491,236m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x3f92750b1a9cd79d:0x123b58807bd23a56!8m2!3d35.5005603!4d50.9185071 …

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Work In Progress said:

No one here has claimed to know who may have fired a missile or why. 

1. I'm not a

lawyer Iranian. 

2. I’m not writing about  "modeller's from  Britmodeller

know well that Iran shot down a Boeing."

3. At the same time, I see that the flywheel of propaganda is spinning up where there is a criminal in advance.  How to determine the work of propaganda?  On the headlines! When they try to drive one and the same thought into your head through newspaper headlines, even if something neutral or opposite is stated in the article itself, this is the work of the propaganda machine.

This is what I tried to say with this:

3 hours ago, Aardvark said:

There is absolutely no evidence that the Boeing was hit by a missile, but the headings already read:

 

iran-shot-down-boeing-737-plane/

.....

jet-crashed-after-being-hit-by-iranian-tor-m1-missile

 

.....presumption of innocence, no not heard.....

🤗

 

3 hours ago, Work In Progress said:

Would not be the first time that an airliner got shot down by mistake in times of tension between US and Iran.

In fact, there are many such errors, not only when was tension between US and Iran.

1 hour ago, Moggy said:

The picture reproduced in the media (seen elsewhere in this thread) purporting to be the missile that allegedly brought the 737 down shows the tail of a missile lying in a piece of ground you can find anywhere in the Middle East.

The problem is that the Tor missile  is quite expensive and rare, according to Wikipedia, Tor is in service:

 

Armenia - an unknown amount of Tor-M2KM

 Azerbaijan - 8 units of Tor-M2E, 

Belarus - 17 units of 9K332 Tor-M2E,
Venezuela - 8 complexes 9K331 "Tor-M1", + 4 9K331 Tor-M1 

 Greece: - 21 complex 9K331 "Tor-M1", + 4 systems 9K331 "Tor-M1", 


 Egypt - 10 complexes 9K331M "Tor-M1", 


 Iran - 29 systems 9K331 "Tor-M1", 


 China - 24 complexes 9K331 "Tor-M1", 


 Cyprus - 6 systems 9K331 "Tor-M1",   Greece handed Tor-M1 to Cyprus in exchange for the deployment of S-300PMU1 Cypriot air defense systems on the Greek island of Crete [56]

 Russia - more than 120 complexes 9K331, 9K332, Tor-M / M1 / M2 / M2U 
 Ukraine - an unknown amount;  6 units were presented at the parade on August 24, 2018 in Kiev 

 

Tor-M2KM we cross out, from the remaining ones we remove those that are far away and have a different landscape, there is not much left.  Nevertheless, I agree with this statement of yours:

2 hours ago, Moggy said:

When you see a picture of a piece of ground on the internet w/o any geographical context (such as an identifiable geographic landmark) it is impossible to fairly link it to a particular geographic spot or timeframe.

 

 

2 hours ago, Moggy said:

The bomb: two "ticketed" passengers failed to board the crashed aircraft - a classic tactic to get the luggage (bomb) onboard w/o getting blown up yourself.

But we are on a forum where they know a little about airplanes!  The bomb is carried into a cabin or luggage compartment, but the engine is reportedly on fire.  In order to put a bomb in the engine, you need to have the skills of an aircraft mechanic, but if you have the skills of an aircraft mechanic, why blast the engine if you can just ruin it? In addition, during the explosion, explosive particles remain which are then detected by chemical and spectral analysis.

Therefore, for "serious guys", just this way:

2 hours ago, Moggy said:

hacker intervention, the extremely unlikelihood of an automatic defence systen w/o whitelisted airspace in the immediate vicinity of Iran's busiest airpost, 

because after him there is no direct evidence.  As an example:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_Mozambican_Tupolev_Tu-134_crash

 

B.R.

Serge

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, TIGER HOBBIESLIMITED said:

Possibly a terrible own goal on the Iranians part,

 

At 023 on the film you see a light coming upto the aircraft from the 4 oclock position and the explosion not long after the two lights collide, no doubt there could be other reasons, strange that the Iranians will not hand over the Black box to Ukraine officials and Boeing.

 

 

Well that they won’t handover the blackbox is logical...i wouldn’t handover such important piece of Intel to the enemy!!

Keeping it can be handy..and in the age of fake news everything is difficult to believe...all options open in this case.

 

I will wait for the end verdict and draw my conclusion!

 

 

cheers, Jan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Iran's refusal to hand the flight recorders to anyone in the USA is understandable and probably prudent. Nevertheless I hope they can be examined by somebody independent, maybe the French or the Germans?

 

I'm not aware of any political issues between Iran and Ukraine (happy to be corrected if that's wrong) and the Ukrainians have a long history of aeronautical manufacturing so we can assume their crash investigators know their business. If the Iranians allow the Ukrainians full access to the investigation we can reasonably assume that the Ukrainians will not endorse a conclusion with which they disagree. On the other hand if the Iranians deny the Ukrainians full access or otherwise obstruct them that in itself will point to guilt or, at the very least, a guilty conscience. I find it very hard to believe that this was a deliberate act but an accidental shoot down or some other external factor (a collision with a military drone?) seems much more likely than a mechanical failure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While the CVR and FDR may be of value, and I hope they are, it is also possible they won't contain anything that solves the case.  Why? Because the ADS-B went out like a light-switch during a perfectly normal climb profile, with no hint of trouble in the second before, and no reports of any radio communication after the event. Combine all that with the video of the explosion. the rapidity with which  the burning component fell to the ground, and the size of the debris field from an incident only 4,000 feet above ground level, and everything points to an utterly cataclysmic event which immediately caused the entire airframe to come to pieces. 

 

Forensic inspection of the remains will be the only certain source of hard evidence, but let us hope additional reliable sources emerge.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the FDR wouldn't yield any particularly revealing information since we now know that it was a shoot down. The CVR is far more important. Similar techniques to the MH17 investigation have potential to reveal a lot of information

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, NoSG0 said:

An interesting point.  On New Year's Eve, I know that fireworks will be launched outside the window, on this New Year's I am standing with my mobile phone trying to make some spectacular shots of the New Year's fireworks, but I get blurry pictures.At the same time, someone accidentally takes pictures at night of probably launching missiles that shoot down a Boeing, and immediately the bilingcat finds the shooting location and thus confirms the video.

 

Now, (right now), I’m watching on Euronews a speech by the Canadian Prime Minister who says that an Iranian missile shot down a Boeing, followed by a speech by Trump who also says that the Boeing was probably mistakenly shot down by Iran.

At the same time, telegram postings appear on the Internet where, citing unnamed sources in US intelligence, it is reported that the Boeing was shot down by two missiles of the Iranian OSA complex.....

54 minutes ago, Skodadriver said:

I'm not aware of any political issues between Iran and Ukraine (happy to be corrected if that's wrong) and the Ukrainians have a long history of aeronautical manufacturing so we can assume their crash investigators know their business. If the Iranians allow the Ukrainians full access to the investigation we can reasonably assume that the Ukrainians will not endorse a conclusion with which they disagree. On the other hand if the Iranians deny the Ukrainians full access or otherwise obstruct them that in itself will point to guilt or, at the very least, a guilty conscience.

Muhhaha, it’s the same as giving them directly to the USA!

 

Therefore, most likely Iran will not do this, in passing for these reasons:

1 hour ago, janneman36 said:

Well that they won’t handover the blackbox is logical...i wouldn’t handover such important piece of Intel to the enemy!!

 

58 minutes ago, Skodadriver said:

Iran's refusal to hand the flight recorders to anyone in the USA is understandable and probably prudent.

They will probably not give them to the Russians either, I think China will receive the blackboxes, it seems to me.

 

But for the rest of the world, a refusal to transfer boxes to Boeing owners will look just like this:

1 hour ago, Skodadriver said:

On the other hand if the Iranians deny the Ukrainians full access or otherwise obstruct them that in itself will point to guilt or, at the very least, a guilty conscience.

😕

 

B.R.

Serge

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looked like an accidental shoot down from the beginning. It was quite the coincidence that an airliner crashed in flames over Tehran the same night missiles were fired at Iraq. 

 

All the air defences in Iran must have been on full alert that night. One overreacted. 

 

A tragedy. I wonder if this might actually lead to a de-escalation in tension? 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Assuming that the aircraft break up was as rapid and catastrophic as some of the alleged footage suggests neither the FDR nor CVR will reveal anything useful once their power supplies were disrupted.  It is now extremely improbable that there will be any independent examination of the wreckage, or any examination at all, as UK TV news this evening shows the crash site being cleared “with extreme prejudice” and little or no apparent attempt to protect evidence.  Earlier footage shows little or no official (police, military) control of the crash site but plenty of “goofers” bimbling around.  Signs of a guilty (government/military) conscience?  You tell me.  

 

The Iranian political/military machine isn’t going to admit to a mistake, especially considering the number of Iranians killed and in that they are much like their American antagonists; to subscribe to the “baggage without passengers” theory would show their security as seriously lacking at best and complicit in mass murder at worst.  Like th MH17 catastrophe I very much doubt that anyone will ever know, or admit to knowing, exactly what happened.  The best that any of us can hope for is that the politicians, military and religious leaders involved will all see sense and not allow this to escalate into yet another needless war.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...