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Paul J

Aussie wild fires.

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I just want to say how sad it is that virtually the whole of the east coast of Australia is ablaze. My sympathies to all affected and hope the fires will all be dealt with soonest.

 

All the best.

 

 

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Cheers Paul, while not directly affected we are copping a lot of smoke from the fires on the coast (up to 150kms away) here in the capital, some days you can't see 100 meters because of it.  I have holidayed in a lot of the areas affected and it saddens me to see the destruction and hardship caused by it all. Only another 2 months of summer to go :(

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Ya, what's happening with that, it doesn't make the news over here anymore, at least not that I've noticed. Hope there's still some country left. I remember hearing about the fire from a few years ago. Do you think this is climate change like people say causing this rift of heat or something else? What the view from over there?

 

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My wife, like @Romeo Alpha Yankee is currently in the city that has the worst air pollution globally today.

 

My 17 y/o stepdaughter is being forced fed the equivalent of about 40 cigarettes a day. 

She doesn’t drink, or smoke; she’s a great kid.

Its the air. The air that she is breathing.

Friends here can’t understand why I have been offline, so worried.

 

As @busnproplinerfan pointed out; it doesn’t make the news here and even over there, it’s downplayed.

We must not discuss politics on BM.

If anyone is interested in the real situation down there; please contact your friends and relatives directly by any means you can. DM me if you can’t get in touch with BM mates or relatives over there at all; I will help you. It’s a modelling forum but we have to help keep our fellow modellers safe and alive to allow them to continue to contribute.

 

The cloud of smoke has now hit New Zealand; a good distance from Australia.

 

I’m told about as far as from Glasgow to Moscow. I’m not sure, I’m a geographer for a living normally and we’re like that (true and a well known in-joke amongst fellow geographers ) 🤣 🗺 👀 🤷🏻‍♂️ 

 

I find it somewhat ironic and upsetting that my wife and stepchildren and friends; one recently just 8km from fire yesterday, are having to rely on a once Manchester based newspaper as their most reliable, online, newsfeed.

 

That and the fire service app and website.

 

George Orwell spoke fairly well of that Manchester based newspaper too, although he didn’t really like any newspapers towards the end of his brief life.

 

On New Year’s Eve in Australia, an entire township were stranded on a beach, or in the water. The sky roaring red.

The clip contains, understandably, non child friendly language. It is one of the most amazing pieces of planet earth based, non cgi, non special effects clips of footage I have ever seen. DM me if you’re over 16 and the f word is acceptable to you as an exclamation of surprise, not insult, in the context of a man describing a situation; a vision, of true hell on earth.

 

The hashtag for it was #Dunkirk.

 

I hear that the fireworks were pretty in Sydney around the same time a lady was trying to keep her five children afloat under a pier elsewhere; her town having burnt away. They were banned everywhere else.

 

Thankfully the event in Sydney went off safely. $15 million I think. For the fireworks and safety preparations that clearly paid off.

 

A very worried about his family and some good virtual and real mates like @AlexN

 

TonyT

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Here's an up to date fire map

https://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/

doesn't show where it's been or the extent of the damage.

It's near to Steve Long, both his home and workplace, also the museums at Camden and RAN Nowra.

 

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I'm just back in Orange after a trip down to Wollongong to spend NYE with friends. I went down on Tuesday, travelling via Crookwell and Goulburn - the Blue Mountains is not a nice place to be at the moment. Coming north up the Hume Freeway I could see the smoke build-up out to the east from the fires on the coast; in its midst was a massive pyrocumulonimbus cloud that was going up to FL 300 or more and still building. After Moss Vale the sky was so black that by about 1530 my headlights came on and stayed on for the rest of the trip. On arriving at the 'Gong I learned that Cobargo, a lovely village on the far south coast and a place I know well (my parents retired to Bermagui, on the coast east of Cobargo, and I've spent a lot of time in the area) had been fried and other places not too far away were in danger. It's all terribly sad. In NSW alone around ten lives have been lost and more than a thousand homes destroyed, and in other States the story is much the same. These are fires of an intensity we simply haven't seen, or had to deal with, before. We're not yet half way through summer, and the fire season is already one of the longest on record.

 

I left Wollongong to come home at about midday yesterday. I reversed my steps from the previous day, and was in smoke from the time I left until my arrival back here. Only the density varied - at worst visibility was about 500 metres, at best a couple of kilometres. The most alarming part of the whole exercise was that at no time on either trip was I closer than about 50 kms to a fire.

 

What we need is at least a week of good, steady, soaking rain - about 50 mm a day - to douse the fires and revive the land. The met people are saying that we're unlikely to get that for another couple of months - who knows what may happen in the meantime. I have my own views on the contribution that climate change has made to all this; I won't repeat them here for fear of becoming political, other than to say that the jury has been out and come back, and the verdict's clear.

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2 hours ago, Admiral Puff said:

I'm just back in Orange after a trip down to Wollongong to spend NYE with friends. I went down on Tuesday, travelling via Crookwell and Goulburn - the Blue Mountains is not a nice place to be at the moment. Coming north up the Hume Freeway I could see the smoke build-up out to the east from the fires on the coast; in its midst was a massive pyrocumulonimbus cloud that was going up to FL 300 or more and still building. After Moss Vale the sky was so black that by about 1530 my headlights came on and stayed on for the rest of the trip. On arriving at the 'Gong I learned that Cobargo, a lovely village on the far south coast and a place I know well (my parents retired to Bermagui, on the coast east of Cobargo, and I've spent a lot of time in the area) had been fried and other places not too far away were in danger. It's all terribly sad. In NSW alone around ten lives have been lost and more than a thousand homes destroyed, and in other States the story is much the same. These are fires of an intensity we simply haven't seen, or had to deal with, before. We're not yet half way through summer, and the fire season is already one of the longest on record.

 

I left Wollongong to come home at about midday yesterday. I reversed my steps from the previous day, and was in smoke from the time I left until my arrival back here. Only the density varied - at worst visibility was about 500 metres, at best a couple of kilometres. The most alarming part of the whole exercise was that at no time on either trip was I closer than about 50 kms to a fire.

 

What we need is at least a week of good, steady, soaking rain - about 50 mm a day - to douse the fires and revive the land. The met people are saying that we're unlikely to get that for another couple of months - who knows what may happen in the meantime. I have my own views on the contribution that climate change has made to all this; I won't repeat them here for fear of becoming political, other than to say that the jury has been out and come back, and the verdict's clear.

Thank you. A harrowing story.

a BM member is a volunteer fireman up in the blue mountains.

 

Wrist broken whilst doing his unpaid, voluntary work.

 

No modelling is the least of his recent worries, but it would have helped if he could model.

 

These volunteers, in all our nations, are incredible people.

 

I do hope that the Aussie ones hurt, the relatives of those killed, affected, in this inferno, will get compensation.

 

Regarding the rain; a concern. The old storage yards, farms, that have gone up in flames complete with toxic chemical supplies.

 

The old houses and buildings made that have gone up that contain asbestos.

 

The library in my local area whilst I lived there was closed last year for a while for ‘modernisations’ as was a school.

 

You will know the kind of ‘modernisations’ I’m referring to.

 

I’m a little concerned about where, and how toxic, this smoke affected rain is going to be. Not my area of expertise. SWMBO used to work for govt in a relevant dept; lips obviously contractually sealed; as are mine regarding certain geobemographic/geopolitical

issues.

 

I do ope that it doesn’t fall on our friends in NZ.

 

Drawing a parallel I’m thinking; Chernobyl and trees in Sweden.

Different toxins, but still rain and a toxic fire.

 

Apparently a category P2 face mask is the minimum requirement for Bush fire smoke inhalation, even in Urban areas.

 

Video called my wife few hours ago. She’s in the capital. Back at work. Ghost town full of smoke.

 

I only just realised she wasn’t wearing a mask. 😔 

 

Must buy one over here and post over, fairly sure that the govt will not provide. Hope they do, meanwhile, no time to lose.

 

TonyT

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As an addition to my previous post: the Cobargo fire was not caused directly by a bushfire, but rather was due to embers carried into the town by a firestorm caused by a fire in bushland some distance away. The buildings that burned were mostly old - some more than a century old - and of timber construction. Once the fire took hold they had no chance. The owners/occupants got out with little more than the clothes on their backs. These are horrific times - the intensity and duration of the fires far exceeds anything in the past.

 

As far as fires in south-eastern Australia are concerned, this is an excellent site: https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me .

 

And for one view of the disaster, try this:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/01/australia-is-becoming-a-nation-of-dread-and-the-world-looks-on-with-pity-and-scorn?utm_term=RWRpdG9yaWFsX0d1YXJkaWFuVG9kYXlBVVMtMjAwMTAy&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=GTAU_email&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayAUS

 

Finally, if you needed an indication of the effect all this is having, have a look here: 

The Australian Magpie (Gymnorhina tibicen) is a renowned mimic, and this one's obviously been listening to a few fire trucks!

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Across the Tasman we watched over the last few days as our skies greyed out & the sun went a dull red colour later in the day after being fairly wan when at its brightest. At this stage, I've heard no suggestion the smoke is of sufficient concentration to represent a health risk, or maybe its just that no-one capable of making that sort of pronouncement is back from holiday yet. ;)  @TonyTiger66 tell your wife that Bunnings & similar will carry P2 rated masks though I'm guessing there'll have been a run on them.

Steve.

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Posted (edited)

I learned more from this thread than in all the news coverage. But then I don't watch mainstream much either. Just sent the Guardian news link to a couple of friends of mine, maybe it'll help get the word out a bit more around here.

Edited by busnproplinerfan

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13 hours ago, bentwaters81tfw said:

Here's an up to date fire map

https://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/

doesn't show where it's been or the extent of the damage.

It's near to Steve Long, both his home and workplace, also the museums at Camden and RAN Nowra.

That map is truly horrifying.

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Just watching it unfold on the telly and we there are mass evacuations in force in some areas. Simply horrific conditions.

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New years eve was as close to hell as I'd like to see.

At my work place I watched the smoke from the Green wattle creek fire erupt out of nowhere when the north westerly started blowing

My house is about 10 k's away from work and looked to be directly in it, early exit was called for.

Getting home it was raining burnt leaves and ash and the sky was indescribable. To the south the Currowan fire was just hitting (and wiping out) Lake Conjola

and lining up Nowra Hill, it took out a few houses there and knocked on the door of RANAS Albatross.

Watching the two pyrocumulonibus clouds forming over both fires and joining up was not something to forget.

In our area one village has been wiped out with major property loss to many others

 

Down the far south coast people have no power, phones or running water and are running out of fuel and food. Some places have been given the order to evacuate now.

1300+ house have been lost and 3500 other buildings and worse 7 deaths with 11 still missing.

Weather conditions are expected to go south on Saturday with conditions as bad or worse than December 31.

Not out of it yet.

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Finding some stuff on the news now, mostly in the world sections.

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Posted (edited)
On 1/1/2020 at 8:17 PM, busnproplinerfan said:

Ya, what's happening with that, it doesn't make the news over here anymore, at least not that I've noticed. Hope there's still some country left. I remember hearing about the fire from a few years ago. Do you think this is climate change like people say causing this rift of heat or something else? What the view from over there?

 

The lack of back burning, clearing of undergrowth and fuel build up is what makes a fire, into a raging inferno. In the area in Victoria that is being affected, there was actually a protest group that succeeded in getting  a lot of back burning cancelled because "it will kill some animals", but you won't see that reported in much of the media. These activists are nowhere to be seen though when a raging fire comes through and kills people. Most fires out here are unfortunately lit by fire bugs, some by carelessness (lit cigs or hot car exhaust) and others by lightning or downed power lines.

 

Australia has always been and always will be, the land of fire and flood. We need to be better at mitigating these.

Edited by Brad

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21 hours ago, Brad said:

The lack of back burning, clearing of undergrowth and fuel build up is what makes a fire, into a raging inferno. In the area in Victoria that is being affected, there was actually a protest group that succeeded in getting  a lot of back burning cancelled because "it will kill some animals", but you won't see that reported in much of the media. These activists are nowhere to be seen though when a raging fire comes through and kills people. 

Quite right. A mate from Melbourne said they used to rake leaves into the gutters and burn them off (out of summer season) to get rid of buildup. The green-persuasion people prevents a lot of this now...

Couple that with housing areas expanding into the hills and the people moving into those houses not knowing how to maintain their property appropriately, this can eventuate into a risk area.

 

New Zealand's Southern Alps have been turned mustard coloured in some areas due to the ash and Queenstown was blanketed in smog.

 

We can only hope for sustained rainfall. Ans also thank those firefighters who are doing a * hard slog of a fight.

 

 

* insert swearword of your choice here.

 

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Brad and Hairy stick, a lack of funding, and reduced funding by the Fed. Gov't is responsible for any lack of back-burning. Your "protest groups" are not, and have never been the Government, and do NOT make those calls.  Certain media outlets push this line, it is completely wrong.

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20 minutes ago, RODH2 said:

Brad and Hairy stick, a lack of funding, and reduced funding by the Fed. Gov't is responsible for any lack of back-burning. Your "protest groups" are not, and have never been the Government, and do NOT make those calls.  Certain media outlets push this line, it is completely wrong.

Well said that man! The lack of action by Central Government should be of more concern to people than the perceived influence of protest groups. 

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34 minutes ago, Kiwidave4 said:

The lack of action by Central Government

I say, Dave, that's hardly cricket. :) The boss man did give up his hols after all. :D 

Steve. 

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22 hours ago, RODH2 said:

 a lack of funding, and reduced funding by the Fed. Gov't is responsible for any lack of back-burning. Your "protest groups" are not, and have never been the Government, and do NOT make those calls. 

You have local council bodies interfering and preventing citizens from having controlled burns when appropriate. They are influenced by the small minority/large noise groups...

Luckily the Fed. can override certain decisions, but the whole thing is bogged down by beauracracy (along with most of the western world).

 

As for the PM...

The less said the better.

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2 hours ago, RODH2 said:

Brad and Hairy stick, a lack of funding, and reduced funding by the Fed. Gov't is responsible for any lack of back-burning. Your "protest groups" are not, and have never been the Government, and do NOT make those calls.  Certain media outlets push this line, it is completely wrong.

The ABC has been busted deleting articles about how protester groups got the planned 300h burn reduced to 9 in Gippsland. Afraid we will have to agree to disagree here as further discussion will breach the no politics rule.

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Brad, I think you will find the ABC is being, err, "managed" by the current mob, cheers!!

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5 hours ago, RODH2 said:

Brad and Hairy stick, a lack of funding, and reduced funding by the Fed. Gov't is responsible for any lack of back-burning. Your "protest groups" are not, and have never been the Government, and do NOT make those calls.  Certain media outlets push this line, it is completely wrong.

This is quite true. Back burning and the incredibly expensive mechanical undergrowth clearing are regulated by money, not "protest groups".

As has been said, the science is clear to everyone - whether one takes any notice of it is, again,  regulated by money.

In Australia, the most activist group in responding to climate change seems to be the financial sector. Their influence will probably not save the day but may make the consequences a little easier to live with.

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I consider myself a greenie. I do as much as I can, but I also realise the practical side of things. Some don't like the greens way and yes some of the ideas aren't the brightest. Where I am we have a lot of untouched boreal forest that goes up every so often. Not as bad as in NSW.  The other year when Fort Mac (Alberta)went up, blame was pointed at the feds or province(not sure which) for cutting the cities back cutting budget of the treeline along the only road going into town. Meanwhile the companies there make millions. It's impossible to not upset someone.

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Some food for thought:

I took this on the 6th of December from my workplace. 

Its what has become know as the Green Wattle Creek fire, it had been burning for a week or so and is just hitting Nattai village near Warragamba dam.

Lq5QPHH.jpg

 

Here's the same fire (and the one that's been trashing the Blue Mountains) 24 days later as predicted by the NSWRFS.

I'm in that red patch near Bowral.

w7jkcEc.jpg

 

It didn't get us, the view from my back yard was unpleasant

 

ZDYVEw8.jpg

 

wxxm1Nw.jpg

 

EKyseOq.jpg

 

The camera brightened it up a lot, it was actually dark as the inside of a dog (About 2pm on a summer afternoon)

 

808 Squadron was busy down the coast rescuing people

 

7HCX00L.jpg

 

This puts it into context (these numbers will get a lot bigger)

vMWVYzY.jpg

 

To be blunt, a lot or people have died and a lot of homes destroyed.

Tomorrow is going to be far worse than December 31 and very likely more people are going to die and many more homes lost.

Who's fault it is irrelevant,having a internet warrior fight over it is pathetic.

Grow the frack up.

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