Soyuz MS-10 launch failure

[GordonD]

The latest launch to the ISS has aborted due to a problem with the launch vehicle. The crew are on the ground and safe. Updates as they come in.

[GordonD]

Early days yet and the investigation hasn't even started but one source suspects that a valve didn't close properly. If it was a propellant valve then one of the strap-on boosters might still have been firing as it separated, leading it to collide with the core section.

 

The immediate problem is that with Soyuz grounded, what happens to the ISS? The Expedition 57 crew are still aboard, but they were due to come down at the beginning of December, with their replacements launching mid-month. Their stay aboard the station can be extended, but not indefinitely: the 'shelf life' of their Soyuz only lasts until the middle of January: like food best-before dates this is obviously a conservative estimate but I wouldn't want to risk more than a few weeks beyond then. I don't know how long the ISS can be left unmanned: this is not a situation anybody anticipated back when the Shuttle was flying. With that and the Soyuz the chances of both being grounded at the same time were very small. Of course the Shuttle was grounded after the Columbia accident, but Soyuz was able to keep the ISS operating, albeit with a reduced crew of two. However the ISS was a lot smaller then and while three seems to be enough to keep it going between mission changeovers for this to last an indefinite amount of time may not be desirable. 

 

The ISS is about to complete its eighteenth consecutive year of occupation (the Expedition 1 crew boarded on 2 November 2000) and it would be sad to see this chain broken. In an ideal world the investigation will find the answer quickly and Soyuz will be cleared to fly again before the current crew are forced to come home.

 

On a side note the authorities have said that Ovchinin and Hague will be recycled to an early mission so they might even be aboard Soyuz MS-11 when it eventually flies.

 

On another side note, should MS-10 be classed as a space flight? It didn't reach the 100km Kármán line which is the official designation of the space boundary. The previous in-flight abort, Soyuz 18-1, took place somewhat later during the launch profile and did exceed that altitude, so that is classed as a sub-orbital mission. The other two failed launch attempts, Soyuz T-10-1 and STS-51L obviously got nowhere near the 100km figure so they are not classed as space flights. But MS-10 aborted at an altitude of 45km and the spacecraft climbed much higher than that before beginning its descent. As the intention was to go into orbit I've changed my mind on this and will count it as a proper, though failed, space flight. Any comments?

[Eric Mc]

The appearance of the "Korolev Cross" looked decidedly asymmetric compared to normal with lots of other bits flickering and tumbling away. It certainly looked like something had burst or exploded and the notion that one of the strap-on boosters had clouted the core stage (and possibly ruptured something) did cross my mind.