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Airfix 2019


jenko

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21 minutes ago, Wez said:

My point is this, Airfix have released a Ju-87 B-1 and B-2

 

Also two different Whitleys, two different B17s and there are strong indications for a Merlin-engined Wellington to follow the Mk,I. I don't know if any of that makes a tin-wing Hurricane more likely but it does suggest that someone at Airfix is well aware of the sales potential of different marks of the same aircraft.

 

Cheers,

 

Stew

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The problem with a tin-wing MK.I is that if I recall correctly, the sprue layout makes

it difficult to re engineer. Certainly, the windscreen arrangement isn’t engineered to accept a straight bottom edged screen.

 

Trevor

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I made an count of how many "Airfix pocket money kits" the one and only seller in my town (Varberg, Sweden) had. l found out that I bought at least 20% (12 kits) these last 18  months. And I knew that I am not the only "entusiast" and "seriuos modeller" in Varberg. In fact, in this forum we are at least two builders from Varberg.

 

I would say that collectors, enthusiasts and serious builders buys a lot more kits than 20% and we are returning buyers. And fore sure we are interested in "variants". That's why a lot of us have ten Spitfires, Mustangs or more in our collections.

 

If an certain variant (a tin wing Hurricane for example) isn't important why making certain variants at all? Just produce genereric aircraft kits and call them Spitfire, Hurricane or what ever.

 

We all knew that's not the way to sell kits in the long run. I think an "tin wing Hurricane" would sell. Still there are no BoB tin Wing  Hurricane's in 1/72 out there or correct P-51B/C Mustang...

 

Cheers / André

Edited by Andre B
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54 minutes ago, Wez said:

little Johnny won't give a toss about the difference between the two marks

Little JohnnyTM isn't going to buy enough kits to save Airfix. Quite frankly, Airfix needs to make more money on each kit it sells, which means they should be developing larger and correspondingly more expensive kits. As a post above noted, the cost of the box instructions and other materials is a large fraction of the direct costs of each kit. But a lot of these costs will be independent on the size of the box itself. Hence the profit margin on a bigger kit should be much greater. Airfix can't completely ignore the pocket money market of course, but they need to make more money on each sale.

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23 minutes ago, VMA131Marine said:

Little JohnnyTM isn't going to buy enough kits to save Airfix. Quite frankly, Airfix needs to make more money on each kit it sells, which means they should be developing larger and correspondingly more expensive kits. As a post above noted, the cost of the box instructions and other materials is a large fraction of the direct costs of each kit. But a lot of these costs will be independent on the size of the box itself. Hence the profit margin on a bigger kit should be much greater. Airfix can't completely ignore the pocket money market of course, but they need to make more money on each sale.

Which brings the latest round of post back to whoever was moaning about the 30 pound Wellington, £44 Shackleton etc

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39 minutes ago, PhantomBigStu said:

Which brings the latest round of post back to whoever was moaning about the 30 pound Wellington, £44 Shackleton etc

Don't forget VAT, which adds nothing to a manufacturer's profits adds 20% to the cost of every kit; that's  £5 on a  £30 kit. It's also why I was able to get 4 new Airfix Wellingtons shipped to the US from Airfix for a total of $30 per kit

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Well, I have not bougth a £30 Wellington or £44 Shackleton for years. I buy those "pocket money kits" in 1/72 and want them to be as accurate and detailed as the bigger kits. I want "specific variants" and not an generic types.

 

I am not a buyer of "bigger kits". I buy many smaller kit. Instead of one big five years project I have many small "projects" going on. And when someting small as ""pocket  money kits" gets my interest I buy it because I can afford it.

 

If Airfix invest in bigger and more expensive kits instead of those smaller kits they for sure loose me as a buyer. And I think that I am not the only buyer they will loose. And what kind of economy is that?

 

How many kids do actually buy a "pocket money kit"? When I look into childrens room today there are no kits. I think most of those kits are bought and built by older people as my self...

 

/André

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20 minutes ago, Andre B said:

If Airfix invest in bigger and more expensive kits instead of those smaller kits they for sure loose me as a buyer. And I think that I am not the only buyer they will loose. And what kind of economy is that?

If Airfix makes the same total profit on one big kit as it does on five or ten small kits then they are probably better off selling fewer big kits than lots of small kits. Part of the problem, I think, is that those of us who grew up on models as pocket money kits, and I include myself in that group, now expect them to continue to be cheap as chips even though the market has changed dramatically. 

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47 minutes ago, Andre B said:

Well, I have not bougth a £30 Wellington or £44 Shackleton for years. I buy those "pocket money kits" in 1/72 and want them to be as accurate and detailed as the bigger kits. I want "specific variants" and not an generic types.

 

I am not a buyer of "bigger kits". I buy many smaller kit. Instead of one big five years project I have many small "projects" going on. And when someting small as ""pocket  money kits" gets my interest I buy it because I can afford it.

 

If Airfix invest in bigger and more expensive kits instead of those smaller kits they for sure loose me as a buyer. And I think that I am not the only buyer they will loose. And what kind of economy is that?

 

How many kids do actually buy a "pocket money kit"? When I look into childrens room today there are no kits. I think most of those kits are bought and built by older people as my self...

 

/André

Well, I might buy a £30 Wellington (or cheaper if possible!) but, I won't be buying a £44 Shackleton AEW2 when the Revell kit is available for £12 - £13 less. I do buy an occasional "bigger" kit but, like you I tend to  buy multiples of smaller, cheaper kits. Any large and expensive items tend to be left either for birthdays, Christmas or, the generosity of my wonderful partner. In fact, if not for her I wouldn't even have an Airfix Victor because I sure as hell wasn't paying £60 for it!.

 

No, if Airfix do go down the "bigger and more expensive" route, they can count me out too. A lot of their larger kits are approaching the unaffordable stage for me anyway.

Allan

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45 minutes ago, VMA131Marine said:

If Airfix makes the same total profit on one big kit as it does on five or ten small kits then they are probably better off selling fewer big kits than lots of small kits. Part of the problem, I think, is that those of us who grew up on models as pocket money kits, and I include myself in that group, now expect them to continue to be cheap as chips even though the market has changed dramatically. 

 

What do you think that would do to the hobby, for the economy for Airfix and even for Britmodeller?

 

Just take a look att how many work bench threads are going on right now here at Britmodeller.

 

One 1/24, one 1/32 - 35, five 1/48, two 1/144 and 12 (!) 1/72 scale aircrafts (most of them are "pocket money kits").

 

Do you really think Airfix is better of selling bigger but more expensive and fewer kits?

Edited by Andre B
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6 minutes ago, Albeback52 said:

but, I won't be buying a £44 Shackleton AEW2 when the Revell kit is available for £12 - £13 less.

An eminently reasonable proposition ....

7 minutes ago, Albeback52 said:

I tend to  buy multiples of smaller, cheaper kits

Which Airfix makes virtually no money on

 

8 minutes ago, Albeback52 said:

No, if Airfix do go down the "bigger and more expensive" route, they can count me out too. A lot of their larger kits are approaching the unaffordable stage for me anyway.

Which probably leaves you with Revell as the sole source of "pocket money" kits. The reality is that if Airfix isn't able to find a way to be profitable, and that isn't going to be by selling more Series 1 through Series 4 kits, they aren't going to survive. Which would leave you in the same boat with Revell as the primary alternative. We have no idea yet what, if any, the recent change of ownership at Revell will have on their kit release strategy.

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11 minutes ago, Andre B said:

One 1/24, one 1/32 - 35, five 1/48, two 1/144 and 12 (!) 1/72 scale aircrafts (most of them are "pocket money kits").

It's doubtful that this is a representative sample of the hobby as a whole. Actually, I think most new kits sales end up in the "stash" as future projects.

 

11 minutes ago, Andre B said:

Do you really think Airfix is better of selling bigger and fewer kits?

It's hard to answer this without knowing the economics of Airfix's business, which I am not privy to. But if, as I posited and I can make a reasonable case for, Airfix makes the same amount of profit on one large kit as they do one several smaller kits combined, then it's a no brainer: Airfix should invest in larger more expensive kits for their future releases. As noted, reissues of existing kits should be more profitable than new tools, at least in the short run.

 

How many Series 1 and 2 kits does Airfix have to sell to make the same profit as say Tamiya does on their 1/12 Caterham for example:

https://hlj.com/product/TAM10201

 

Airfix has nothing for sale in this category of product and I have to think it is hurting revenue for the company as a whole.

Edited by VMA131Marine
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2 minutes ago, VMA131Marine said:

It's doubtful that this is a representative sample of the hobby as a whole. Actually, I think most new kits sales end up in the "stash" as future projects.

 

It's hard to answer this without knowing the economics of Airfix's business, which I am not privy to. But if, as I posited and I can make a reasonable case for, Airfix makes the same amount of profit on one large kit as they do one several smaller kits combined, then it's a no brainer: Airfix should invest in larger more expensive kits for their future releases. As noted, reissues of existing kits should be more profitable than new tools, at least in the short run.

So what happends if Airfix invest in the wrong "big scale kit" instead of spreading out the risks on several smal kits that anyone can buy?

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2 minutes ago, Andre B said:

So what happends if Airfix invest in the wrong "big scale kit" instead of spreading out the risks on several smal kits that anyone can buy?

The company will keep going down the path of losing ca. £10M a year until they can't get investors to fund them any longer. That is, in effect, the strategy they have been pursuing. It's not working!

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Its hard to know what the right approach for the Airfix brand is as it is inexorably caught up with the wider Hornby group of brands.  

 

Airfix may well be hitting the ‘sweet spot’ in terms of releases and pricing but it’s difficult to know that when it’s mixed in with corgi, slot cars, model railway, pocher and Humbrol et al...

 

All of those products are also competing for investment in tooling, marketing, research etc...

 

Personally I hope the Hornby management ‘back the right horses’ and give the brands that are performing the investment they need to grow.  The issue is they are under a bit of financial constraint. 

 

 

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10 hours ago, Albeback52 said:

No, if Airfix do go down the "bigger and more expensive" route, they can count me out too. A lot of their larger kits are approaching the unaffordable stage for me anyway.

Allan

And me. Sure, Airfix's market has changed radically since my childhood, when I used to run round to the newsagent every week to spend 2s 9d on a Series 1 kit in a polybag. Unfortunately, many people's financial situation has also changed radically in the last 10 years and they can't justify blowing £60 on a plastic Victor, or £30 a pop on multiple Wellingtons, even if Airfix's current philosophy of kit design (bags of interior detail) appeals to them. The company has to decide whether it's willing to gamble on being able to make enough money from the people who are willing and able to do that, or whether it should strike a balance. The Airfix Classsics range (on which there's a separate thread) and the re-release of the Marauder suggest that they're trying out the 'mix and match' strategy. The fact that their reps had previously been saying that the old kits would never be seen again suggests that something's caused Airfix to have a rethink. Whether the dreadful, clapped-out, Panther and Tiger are the best place to start is another question........

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11 hours ago, VMA131Marine said:

An eminently reasonable proposition ....

Which Airfix makes virtually no money on

 

Which probably leaves you with Revell as the sole source of "pocket money" kits. The reality is that if Airfix isn't able to find a way to be profitable, and that isn't going to be by selling more Series 1 through Series 4 kits, they aren't going to survive. Which would leave you in the same boat with Revell as the primary alternative. We have no idea yet what, if any, the recent change of ownership at Revell will have on their kit release strategy.

 

11 hours ago, VMA131Marine said:

An eminently reasonable proposition ....

Which Airfix makes virtually no money on

 

Which probably leaves you with Revell as the sole source of "pocket money" kits. The reality is that if Airfix isn't able to find a way to be profitable, and that isn't going to be by selling more Series 1 through Series 4 kits, they aren't going to survive. Which would leave you in the same boat with Revell as the primary alternative. We have no idea yet what, if any, the recent change of ownership at Revell will have on their kit release strategy.

Very fair points. I am sorry if Airfix makes virtually no money on multiple purchases of smaller kits but, I cannot afford to change my buying habits to suit Airfix. I have no problem accepting Revell as the sole remaining source of cheap, affordable kits although I accept that, like you, we have no idea how the recent ownership issue will pan out.

 

The afore mentioned series 1 - 4 kits are clearly popular and sell in good numbers (even if not enough to make a large profit)  but, take those away and Airfix will lose a large chunk of their customer base.  It may be true that Airfix makes a bigger profit on the high end, expensive kits but, there are limits to what customers will pay and this sort of strategy could equally turn round and bite them in the backside. There is also, of course the risk that they might expend resources on tooling  big, expensive kits that turns out to be  big, expensive flops. It's certainly not unknown but, that could just as easily put them very firmly back in square one again!

 

Allan

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, Stew Dapple said:

 

I don't know if any of that makes a tin-wing Hurricane more likely but it does suggest that someone at Airfix is well aware of the sales potential of different marks of the same aircraft.

 

Cheers,

 

Stew

Revell uses much the same line of thinking for new tools, there have to be at least two possible physical variants - that's why they dropped the Shackleton 3 they initially wanted to do and went for the 2, even though they could have done the Stage 3 with the jet augmentors.

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11 hours ago, VMA131Marine said:

Which probably leaves you with Revell as the sole source of "pocket money" kits. The reality is that if Airfix isn't able to find a way to be profitable, and that isn't going to be by selling more Series 1 through Series 4 kits, they aren't going to survive.

I guess they will have a reasonable margin on S.4 kits already, given the price those have reached; many of the new tool subjects in S.4 would have been S.2 not that long ago (Blenheim, 262B). Otherwise, I fully agree - and it is of note that Revell's prices have risen dramatically over the past few years. The C-54 would have had a 30 € price point not long ago, but it's actually 50. The Canadair bought in from Heller is/was 30 €, which may be cheaper than Heller and on the second hand market, but is out of the pocket money/casual buyer/occasional present range. The only pocket money new tools from the past couple of years I recall offhand are the rather messed-up Spit and the Corsair which doesn't seem much better.

1 hour ago, AWFK10 said:

The fact that their reps had previously been saying that the old kits would never be seen again suggests that something's caused Airfix to have a rethink. Whether the dreadful, clapped-out, Panther and Tiger are the best place to start is another question........

I guess they have no choice but to use the existing moulds as they will invariably earn them money - if they pick the right subjects, namely those that sell. Panther and Tiger may sell, or may not, regarding mould quality I'd consider them detrimental to brand value, especially in the "first buyer" market as they may put off a first time buyer off buying any more Airfix products (or kits at all), even if they are marketed as "Classics" and age of the mould indicated.

 

If we take a look at the business model of the Czech producers, they seem to be quite succesful with it. Their focus and main buyer base does not seem to be the pocket money market, still they appear to make enough money to keep on producing quality kits with high levels of detail. Eduard at least has the Weekend concept catering for the lower end of the market.

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There’s some good points being made and it reminds me of a old teacher who explained to me the 80/20 rule and I think it ‘may’ apply here. Let me see if I can relate it to Airfix. 

 

Lets take a subject like a 1/48 Vulcan. 80% of modellers would want one, however only 20% of us will probably buy it. 

 

Then there’s a subject like a Series 2 1/72 P-47. Due to the number of kits already on the market, 20% of modellers probably want it, however 80% of us would actually buy it!! 

 

I personally think there’s an Airfix market for most subjects, however the trick is knowing when to sell it and how many to actually produce. If a ‘Limited Edition’ Lincoln was announced do you think it wouldn’t sell? There has also been (unfair) comparisons with WNW kits on here, however I still think more Airfix Swifts have been sold than some of this companies excellent kits, so there’s clearly a market for both types I would think. 

 

Now call me Nostradamus, however I reckon that if Airfix never produce the Swift again, it will start to sell for crazy money in years to come. 

 

This debate is a good read gents, I’m sure there’s at least one, two or ten Airfix products for all of us to buy that will hopefully keep this pioneering company thriving into the future. 

 

Cheers.. Dave 

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1 hour ago, tempestfan said:

 

If we take a look at the business model of the Czech producers, they seem to be quite succesful with it. Their focus and main buyer base does not seem to be the pocket money market, still they appear to make enough money to keep on producing quality kits with high levels of detail. Eduard at least has the Weekend concept catering for the lower end of the market.

The issue is companies like Eduard etc are solely model companies they are not generally part of a larger group with a more diverse brand portfolio. This allows them to focus solely on the market they are in and all of there efforts can go into this market. 

 

Airfix are are not the same in this regard being part of Hornby.

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8 minutes ago, Rabbit Leader said:

 There has also been (unfair) comparisons with WNW kits on here, however I still think more Airfix Swifts have been sold than some of this companies excellent kits, so there’s clearly a market for both types I would think. 

 

WNW is a unique company in almost every way...

for a good insight this POD cast is worth listening to...

 

https://itunes.apple.com/nz/podcast/otb-episode-27-podcast-about-scale-model-building/id1262869310?i=1000414450000&mt=2

 

I agree with David a comparison with Hornby is not really possible....

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Plasto said:

The issue is companies like Eduard etc are solely model companies they are not generally part of a larger group with a more diverse brand portfolio. This allows them to focus solely on the market they are in and all of there efforts can go into this market. 

 

Airfix are are not the same in this regard being part of Hornby.

But that is a question of resource allocation only, not of the strategy of the branches. It may well be that the AIrfix part of the operation subsidises other branches, or vice versa.

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Guys, come on this is the Rumourmonger section where I expect to hear what Airfix might be providing us with next year, not “Business Model”, Sales Performance, comparison of Airfix in the market place and general comments on how Airfix should run their business. If you want to discuss that, please set up a new discussion in the Chat or other suitable area and keep this to what we would like to see or hope Airfix produce in the coming future.

 

Please get this back on track

 

Thanks Rich

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Super King Air 200. Enormous number of of users/colour schemes, military and civilian. Used by the RAF, include some decals for the Flying Doctors/RAAF/Army so it'll sell in Australia, RNZAF for New Zealand sales etc. I'd buy loads of them and before anyone mentions it I'm too scared of Mach 2's reputation to buy theirs!

 

Paul Harrison

Edited by GreenDragon
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