Airfix 2019

[Ratch]

Don't you think the Victor was any good then? Don't you expect the Wellington will sell? Airfix obviously always issue the wrong subjects at the wrong price with too many errors

[cmatthewbacon]

2 hours ago, amblypygid said:

I find little to encourage me in that report.

...and is your coffee cup half-empty as well? 😜

 

Seriously, I think that's a pretty good statement from the Chief Exec. It shows he understands the key issues, and he's addressing them, recognises the importance of industry knowledge, and is nurturing talent. He's not going to give away a detailed operational plan in a public document. If I didn't several hundred miles away, I'd be happy to apply for a marketing job at Hornby on the basis of that!

 

best,

M.

[Dave Fleming]

2 hours ago, cmatthewbacon said:

...and is your coffee cup half-empty as well? 😜

 

Seriously, I think that's a pretty good statement from the Chief Exec. It shows he understands the key issues, and he's addressing them, recognises the importance of industry knowledge, and is nurturing talent. He's not going to give away a detailed operational plan in a public document. If I didn't several hundred miles away, I'd be happy to apply for a marketing job at Hornby on the basis of that!

 

best,

M.

 

Agreed, it's a very positive statement, and is some ways quite frank from a CEO. And he's not saying much that those of us who kept an eye on the business side of Hornby/Airfix haven't been saying for years - that the senior management didn't understand the market, discounting was hurting the brand (and being caused by a need for cash flow)

Edited June 20, 2018 by Dave Fleming

[Ed Russell]

It looks like a pretty positive statement to me too. It's even quite well written (apart from his "straight jacket" is actually a straitjacket). If they can do all that, they will be successful but actions speak louder than words. I'd be tempted to speculate on some shares but not a great number.

[Jazzie]

4 hours ago, Dave Fleming said:

 

Agreed, it's a very positive statement, and is some ways quite frank from a CEO. And he's not saying much that those of us who kept an eye on the business side of Hornby/Airfix haven't been saying for years - that the senior management didn't understand the market, discounting was hurting the brand (and being caused by a need for cash flow)

Dave,

Although i do see and understand your point, i have as many as 20 Airfix kits that i would never have bought if they were not discounted to the level they were. Now there are many Airfix kits that i want to purchase but simply cannot justify spending the money that they want for them. 

Arabest,

Geoff.

[Chimpion]

It worries me that he sees the unpredictability of sales volumes as a given he has to live with. It's part of the CEO's job to find a solution to that problem. I see no real sign of that in his statement.

CEOs are there to make upbeat statements. The truth is usually hidden in what isn't said. I hope I'm wrong.

 

 

[Ratch]

25 minutes ago, Chimpion said:

It worries me that he sees the unpredictability of sales volumes as a given he has to live with.

 

And how exactly to you arrive at accurate sales figures? Historical performance can be useful for existing product but what about new items? Where does accurate forecasting for them come from? Perhaps its a crystal ball 🙄

[tempestfan]

38 minutes ago, Ratch said:

Where does accurate forecasting for them come from? 

Market analysis, perhaps ? "Tx sells 15k 1/48 Mustangs a year, so does Hx, so we can expect to also sell 15k". Or perhaps all 30k combined. Or only ten-k. Or none if the quality doesn't match the competition and the price is higher. Of course competition sales figures will not be available, but probably the fact that a kit stays in a company's programme for 10 or 15 years may be an indicator it's a success. Doesn't work for a Vampire 11 as that one has never been kitted as a mainstream kit before (save for the Hobbycraft caricature), but then obviously the whole market is "yours". Just depends on how big the market is, and if a kit is Trumpeterised or good enough to attract the enthusiasts.

[Lord Riot]

If only modelling was as 'cool with the kids' as gaming, they'd be selling millions of kits. Needs some kind of super cool marketing campaign aimed at teens and hipsters to get them into the hobby. 

[trickydicky210]

Nice to see that we don't have 200 modellers telling Airfix(Hornby) how to run their business for once.

 

Now hopefully we can get back to guessing what Airfix will offer up next year

 

 

 

 

 

 

[AntPhillips]

9 hours ago, amblypygid said:

.................................Weak sales in the last ten weeks aren't encouraging.................

 

 

You might say that the fact that we've just had nigh on 7 weeks of glorious sunny weather is partly responsible, I know I've hardly touched a model during that period as I've been busy doing outdoor stuff with the family, I've done more modelling since the weather turned in the last week or so than I did all through May.

 

There are elements of the report that I'm very pleased with, hopefully given time they will turn the business around and Airfix, Hornby & Scalextric will return to profitability, but they really must address the Quality Control problems that are occurring, it seems to be that the glut of short shot kits in the recent releases is far more of a problem than I can ever recall in the past.

[VMA131Marine]

9 hours ago, amblypygid said:

I can get an Eduard kit for a similar price but can expect the kit to be higher quality. And I recently bought the AMK 1/72 Kfir; for about the same price as a low-end Airfix kit,

That's great if you wanted a Kfir, since Airfix don't make one anyway. Likewise, the range of Eduard produced tooling that is current is quite small compared to the Airfix range. Certainly, the Eduard 1/72 Spitfires and Fw 190s in their Weekend Edition boxings are better value than the Airfix equivalents, but they don't have the same market penetration or name brand recognition as Airfix, so are less likely to be bought by casual buyers. The kits coming out of China seem to be aimed at the high end market for the most part; they are generally not cheap. Revell is likely to remain the biggest competitor that Airfix has, and even then only when they have subjects in common. Airfix probably needs to expand into some other subject areas; right now they are completely missing out on sales in 1/72 and 1/35 armour, 1/24 civilian vehicles, 1/20 Formula One cars. They may also want to rethink their aversion to 1/32 aircraft.

[Ratch]

26 minutes ago, tempestfan said:

Market analysis, perhaps ? "Tx sells 15k 1/48 Mustangs a year, so does Hx, so we can expect to also sell 15k". Or perhaps all 30k combined. Or only ten-k. Or none if the quality doesn't match the competition and the price is higher. Of course competition sales figures will not be available, but probably the fact that a kit stays in a company's programme for 10 or 15 years may be an indicator it's a success. Doesn't work for a Vampire 11 as that one has never been kitted as a mainstream kit before (save for the Hobbycraft caricature), but then obviously the whole market is "yours". Just depends on how big the market is, and if a kit is Trumpeterised or good enough to attract the enthusiasts.

As I said, product with a sales history gives some indication - not necessarily accurate, but an indicator. Where do the accurate sales forecasts for new product come from? I suspect there are extremely few accurate forecasts for new product that the previous poster thought so easily achieved.

[Chimpion]

I don't know the answer, but then I'm not CEO of Hornby so it's not my job to know. Things like product mix might help, which is hard when money is short. If you release 25 kits, you don't care if a few don't sell. When you only release a few a year, you need them all to sell well. I don't doubt that the CEO is aware of the options he has. The fact that he doesn't hint at a solution might well be because he can't find one that is likely to work.

As I said, I really hope I'm wrong.

I think actually this may well be much more serious for Hornby than for Airfix. I can imagine plenty of people will pay £25 for a new tool model for the enjoyment of the build, even if it's not the subject they really wanted. Would many people pay £100 or more for a locomotive that doesn't inspire them?

 

[amblypygid]

8 hours ago, cmatthewbacon said:

...and is your coffee cup half-empty as well?

 

A lot of the time, admittedly, yes. I spend some of my working life assessing retailers' performance and plans and generally find that their optimistic projections are rarely borne out, and I apply a 100% discount to positive thinking, while valuing positive action. I would expect Hornby to be putting as positive a gloss on their situation as possible given their recent financial performance, and while they may well have identified the problems that their businesses face, that's different to solving those problems with limited investment and the cash that's available to them. I hope they do solve them, but I won't be investing in those hopes just yet. I'd need to see more evidence that they are making practical progress to solving those problems without burning through their cash, especially given the long product cycle that their CEO mentioned, which may mean their positive actions don't bear fruit for two years. I would summarise his statement as: "I'm new in this role, I've found some very serious problems in your business, I believe I can fix them, but you're going to have to have patience." Nothing wrong with that, and it's certainly a more realistic appraisal than his predecessors, but it's not going to be easy.

 

9 hours ago, Ratch said:

Don't you think the Victor was any good then? Don't you expect the Wellington will sell? Airfix obviously always issue the wrong subjects at the wrong price with too many errors

I'm not sure whether this was a response to my post or not but I found the Victor to be a good kit, and I have no expectations whatsoever as to whether the Wellington will sell well or not. I have plenty of recently tooled red boxes in my stash and think that the quality is generally good. But I also think that Airfix will operate in an increasingly competitive marketplace, and that their big advantage, the iconic brand, may be less of an advantage in the future. I see products coming from other manufacturers that are as good, or better, than Airfix products, and often they are discounted and represent better value for money than the undiscounted Airfix kits. As others have pointed out, the ranges available from those competitors are small, but they will only grow. 

[AntPhillips]

Of course most of what we think about Hornby & Airfix's finances is pure conjecture as we don't work there.

 

Leaving that aside and looking forward I hope Airfix decide to revisit the 1/48 British AFV range, I'm no expert but it seemed to be popular and remains so judging by the non-availability and prices of certain kits on the Bay and elsewhere. I can understand the withdrawal of the range as it was marketed as Operation Herrick Afghanistan and as that mission ended in 2014 so too the kits disappeared from the range.  Perhaps the kits could be re-released as a Modern British Forces range not tied to any particular operation, and with the addition of a few more subjects like Challenger, CVR(T)'s, MRAP's and maybe even the latest Ajax family. 

 

Here's hoping without any expectation.

[Enzo the Magnificent]

On 04/06/2018 at 20:22, IanC said:

 And maybe something French.

Mirage IIIC in 1/72.   

[Wez]

9 minutes ago, Enzo Matrix said:

Mirage IIIC in 1/72.   

I see where you went wrong there, you let auto-correct get its own way, you really meant Mirage IIIE/5, it's an easy mistake to make!

Edited June 20, 2018 by Wez

[Enzo the Magnificent]

1 minute ago, Wez said:

I see where you went wrong there, you let auto-correct get its own way, you really meant Mirage IIIE/5, it's an easy mistake to make!

Nope.  I meant IIIC.    Look at what Airfix did with the Lightning.  They released the more niche F.2A first and then followed it up with an F.6 later.

 

Doing it my way we get everything within three years...   

[cmatthewbacon]

1 hour ago, Chimpion said:

The fact that he doesn't hint at a solution might well be because he can't find one that is likely to work.

Equally, he might have a good plan with an excellent chance of working that he doesn't want to share with his competitors.

 

The elephant that may or may not be in this room is that none of us has any hard facts on the market segmentation of Airfix buyers either today, or where it ought to be headed. That's where the strategy and in-depth understanding of the retail market for Airfix kits, not the "hobby" of modelling, comes in.

 

Unless I've missed something in the last ten years this debate has been going around, no one actually knows the proportions of Airfix kits sold to kids for pocket money, occasional purchasers (including gifts), regular purchasers through mainstream retail, enthusiast modellers, etc, etc. We're a pretty self-selecting group here. Certainly you'd have to be a reasonably serious enthusiast to be engaging in a debate about whether to buy the new Airfix Phantom or stick with the Fujimi (which you can't get easily any more). Or even to contemplate buying an Eduard Spitfire.

 

My gut feel is that the only real competitor to Airfix for a reasonably-sized majority of its sales is Revell, which has the product range and distribution outside of specialist model shops. Eduard, AMK, even Hasegawa are only really for people who are in the know. And Revell has obviously had exactly the same problems as Airfix, evidenced in limited new release programmes over the last few years, and the deep discounting which has netted quite a number of us a 1/48 Tornado F.3 for £15... I"m sure Revell's done well out of the SW franchise, but I bet it costs.

 

The part about:

"Dominant national retailers who were only a distant memory to the business have proactively re-engaged now the discounting has stopped. Licensors of important trademarks are engaging with us again and wanting to broaden ranges and partnerships. Previously lost talent is coming back to the Group and morale is starting to improve in our staff who will be the real champions of this turnaround."

 

...sounds like we might be seeing Airfix back in WH Smiths rather than The Works or Home Bargains. And I'll allow myself to hope that the "Important trademarks wanting to broaden ranges and partnerships" might mean that a range of 1/24 Aston Martins, Mclarens and Jaguars will be forthcoming (or at least 1/32 ones based on existing Scalectric licenses....)

 

best,

M.

 

Edited June 20, 2018 by cmatthewbacon

[Wez]

3 minutes ago, Enzo Matrix said:

Nope.  I meant IIIC.    Look at what Airfix did with the Lightning.  They released the more niche F.2A first and then followed it up with an F.6 later.

 

Doing it my way we get everything within three years...   

So selfless of you to think like that!

 

Three years should give me enough time for an EC1/5 an ECTT2/2 and an Aeronauts jet! Thanks Enzo, you've made me see the error of my ways (yet again)!

[Enzo the Magnificent]

A few years ago Airfix seemed to be replacing classic kits from their 60s range.  The Mirage IIIC would fit in well with that policy.

[Ratch]

I don't think they were replacing old moulds randomly, I think it was based on which subjects sold. Of course the 20 years that the Mirage IIIC was in the range may indicate it sold a few. Whether it was enough to warrant a new tool....

[Phil Gollin]

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This was posted on a Model Railway board (RMWeb) - and may be useful for the more accounts literate people ;

 

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The image was posted by "Ozexpatriot" - thanks to him - the thread is here ;

 

http://www.rmweb.co.uk/community/index.php?/topic/135041-hornby-annual-results-year-ended-31-march-2018/page-3

 

 

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Edited June 20, 2018 by Phil Gollin

[cmatthewbacon]

I think Airfix's new-tool range strategy is pretty clear: 1/72 WW2 mostly British with some adversaries, often replacing stalwarts of earlier years, and 1/72 iconically British post-war aircraft, with 1/72 as the "mainstream" scale with the gift sets etc; and 1/48 iconically British (mostly) post-war aircraft, done to be the best and most accurate kits available, appealing to, well, us.

 

I suspect the currently MIA Sea Vixen and Javelin are products of exactly what the CEO is talking about -- not being able to order enough, and not being able to order early enough to ensure a place on the schedule in future. The short runs and later shortages I would say are a product of those issues, not a deliberate strategy. If you HAVE the best 1/48 Sea Vixen, Javelin or Hunter there is, then why not keep it available, because there'll always be enthusiast modellers ready to buy one...?

 

I'd expect the existing 1/48 Brit-jets to make a return over the next couple of years, along with another Hunter variant. I think there's a good chance of a new, or substantially upgraded Buccaneer in both 1/72  and 1/48, and a downscaled Hunter, but I wouldn't hold out for a Swift or Scimitar in 1/48...

 

bestest,

M.