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Airfix 2017


Denford

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I think that a lot of people are getting very carried away here, as some of the wants are way beyond what Airfix would ever be likely to do even if they were in a good financial situation. I can think of half a dozen kits I'd dearly love to see on next year's release schedule, but I know full well that it ain't ever going to happen.

We need to be realistic, gents. The owners of Airfix have only just avoided bankruptcy, and have a tough set of measures to meet in return for being allowed to trade for the next three years. Remember that the company will be dropping 40% of its product range, and this will be across all brands. There are approximately 250 products in the current Airfix catalogue, so potentially 100 of those will not be in next year's line up. What remains has to sell, and the same goes for anything that is introduced.

We all talk about sure fire sellers, no brainers and licences to print money, but we do not have the market research information that the suits at Hornby have when they consider whether to invest a five or six figure sum in a new product. And they have given us what we have wanted in the past in the shape of the Nimrod or Valiant or Javelin, and have possibly lost money as a result. This will not be allowed to happen again -indeed, in their new situation it cannot be allowed to- so what appears in those red boxes next year or the year after are items that will be assured of sales, and those will be subjects that are known outside of our own circle.

How do we know that Airfix released certain kits with the full knowledge they would have poor sales. Perhaps Airfix released these kits under the belief they would make money?

Airfix has always been there to make money and has never been a charity funded to fulfill peoples plastic fantasies, they must have had a business motive in releasing these kits surely.

Airfix can reduce it's range to reduce it's cost but surely the challenge for them would be to have a large range that sells.

I love all the reboxing of stuff but only when the re-releases include interesting decals etc.

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With the Dornier 17z, HE-111 and Ju-88 all the subject of modern kits in 1/72, my hope is that Airfix will see the obvious gap in the market and give us a new-tool version of this beauty...

130060-13652-64-pristine.jpg

Which then allows for the use of common parts to give us this....

144490-11185-pristine.jpg

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With the Dornier 17z, HE-111 and Ju-88 all the subject of modern kits in 1/72, my hope is that Airfix will see the obvious gap in the market and give us a new-tool version of this beauty...

130060-13652-64-pristine.jpg

Which then allows for the use of common parts to give us this....

144490-11185-pristine.jpg

There are no extant examples, and as far as I know no reliable engineering drawings. As far as Airfix are concerned, forget it.

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How do we know that Airfix released certain kits with the full knowledge they would have poor sales. Perhaps Airfix released these kits under the belief they would make money?

You misread what I wrote, as I never said that.

Airfix releases every kit with the expectation of sales and making a profit on their investment in tooling costs. To do otherwise is commercial stupidity. For years everybody wanted a Nimrod; we were given one, and many retailers were left with them gathering dust on the shelves as a result as it appeared that not everybody wanted one after all.

Getting back to next year, I think we will see a few more reissues with new markings, which is not a bad thing as it helps to keep the range fresh. The Hawk 100 could be reissued as a Hawk T.2 with full RAF 4 Sqdn markings, while the Tiger Moth, Vampire and Mustang are all among those which could be given new boxings. I also think that we will get a Korean war RAAF Meteor and a starter set Jet Provost. With the Revell Shack currently available I think that they will hold back on an AEW.2 for now.

As for new moulds, who knows? But I do think that some of those planned will be slipped to 2018.

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I think that a lot of people are getting very carried away here, as some of the wants are way beyond what Airfix would ever be likely to do even if they were in a good financial situation. I can think of half a dozen kits I'd dearly love to see on next year's release schedule, but I know full well that it ain't ever going to happen.

We need to be realistic, gents. The owners of Airfix have only just avoided bankruptcy, and have a tough set of measures to meet in return for being allowed to trade for the next three years. Remember that the company will be dropping 40% of its product range, and this will be across all brands. There are approximately 250 products in the current Airfix catalogue, so potentially 100 of those will not be in next year's line up. What remains has to sell, and the same goes for anything that is introduced.

We all talk about sure fire sellers, no brainers and licences to print money, but we do not have the market research information that the suits at Hornby have when they consider whether to invest a five or six figure sum in a new product. And they have given us what we have wanted in the past in the shape of the Nimrod or Valiant or Javelin, and have possibly lost money as a result. This will not be allowed to happen again -indeed, in their new situation it cannot be allowed to- so what appears in those red boxes next year or the year after are items that will be assured of sales, and those will be subjects that are known outside of our own circle.

You misread what I wrote, as I never said that.

Airfix releases every kit with the expectation of sales and making a profit on their investment in tooling costs. To do otherwise is commercial stupidity. For years everybody wanted a Nimrod; we were given one, and many retailers were left with them gathering dust on the shelves as a result as it appeared that not everybody wanted one after all.

Apologies for misunderstanding your original post, but what I was driving at in my reply was how would Airfix know what would sell well and what wouldn't? Some of the kits that have sold well are not always the ones which I would have guessed would have done.

I suppose Airfix have two choices here, either replace old moulds of their historic reliable sellers like the Tigermoth or Defiant or try and fill gaps in the market with things like the Whitley and Javelin.

I think if I was them I would go for the safest option rather than speculate.

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You misread what I wrote, as I never said that.

Airfix releases every kit with the expectation of sales and making a profit on their investment in tooling costs. To do otherwise is commercial stupidity. For years everybody wanted a Nimrod; we were given one, and many retailers were left with them gathering dust on the shelves as a result as it appeared that not everybody wanted one after all.

(...)

I suppose such a huge kit will not fall in the impulse buy category for the majority of potential Airfix customers. I never wanted a Nimrod but found it an interesting kit - then I found out about the issues and stared to check which updates it would need and what they would add to the cost... I never bought one. I almost did twice: 1. When a shop had it disounted to 20 something and second when someone put it up for sale with lots of improvement sets and extra decals for almost the same price as the Nimrod was alone at normal retail price here. Both times I was too late... I bet it would be the same with their Victor if they make some noticable shape issues with this kit. At this price level there is not much space for faults IMHO.

In the last century it was not such a big deal but today each and everybody will call out if there is something wrong with a kit. Sure not everybody who buys a kit will check the web first but I daresay that something like the Nimrod is usually not sold to beginners. The percentage of active modellers who use reference will be a lot higher with a 1:72 Nimrod than with a 1:72 Spitfire (I strongly believe that the Spitfire will be also widely available, while the Nimrod was only in "selected" shops). Besides: No need to visit a modelling forum - many websites have comments (Amazon,...).

René

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Lysander is no way a boring stuff!!! Boring are pretty similar American grasshoppers. But Lysander was weird enough not to be considered boring!

Plus it was used by a surprising number of users and in different ways

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Just read that UK actually demonstrates quite solid growth in July-August i.e. post-Brexit referendum. Primarily through growing exports due to decreased pound rate. I wonder if that might help Hornby or not. But I would guess that Hornby should consider growing export potential while planning 2017-2018 program. So maybe more non-British stuff?

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I would guess that Hornby should consider growing export potential while planning 2017-2018 program. So maybe more non-British stuff?

The 2017 range will already be set, and the major releases for 2018 will also be well down the development path. It takes more than a few weeks to come up will new moulds to add to the tool bank. The only wiggle room might be in substituting one existing mould in the schedule for another, but even that will depend how far down the line the next catalogue is. All these things take planning. They're not done on a whim and Hornby must have a long term strategy, or we wouldn't be getting any new models.

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Just read that UK actually demonstrates quite solid growth in July-August i.e. post-Brexit referendum. Primarily through growing exports due to decreased pound rate. I wonder if that might help Hornby or not. But I would guess that Hornby should consider growing export potential while planning 2017-2018 program. So maybe more non-British stuff?

All that could change, especially these days when nobody can agree on what might happen.

Does Airfix receive complete boxes or just sprues from India? In the latter case significant portion of the box cost is actually in the UK. And what is the share of research and marketing costs that are mostly UK labour?

I think the kits are packaged abroad, but no idea about the rest.

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Does Airfix receive complete boxes or just sprues from India? In the latter case significant portion of the box cost is actually in the UK. And what is the share of research and marketing costs that are mostly UK labour?

Let's say I want to make a brand new Wellington bomber. My R&D and toolmaking costs me £70,000. This is a Capital (one off) expenditure. The cost price of the product consists of three elements; labour, materials and overheads (Marketing falls into this category) and lets say the cost price is £14.00. I'm going to sell it to the Retailer for £21.00 and he's going to mark it up to £29.99 for RRP. So for each Wellington I sell I get £7.00, well not quite because I've got to recoup the Capital outlay Our forecast is to sell 5000 in the first year and 3000 per year thereafter. I won't recoup the outlay until well into year 3 and only then will I start making a profit.

Of course, these figures are fictional, but the model is accurate - its how it works.

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To the Ratch's model: what might actually happen with the GBP rate falling - is higher sales volume overseas. This may speed up recovery of capital outlays. And that is why I was thinking that Airfix might want to reshuffle its program to make it more oriented to foreign customers - such as bringing American/German/any other stuff forward. I'm sure that they have a number of such projects in the pipeline.

On the other hand, I agree that Airfix margin will be squeezed if foreign labour and materials are well above 50% of total cost. But we do not know what is the percentage of Indian labour/materials against UK overheads. I just know from other industries that overheads might appear to be surprisingly high.

All I want to stress here - is that squeezing catalogue and holding up new releases might be not the only scenario available for Airfix. Let's wait for the Advent calendar :)

Edited by Dennis_C
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I don't think retailers in the UK work on those margins. A £29.99 retail price involves £5 of VAT. He's likely to have paid £13 for the kit.

Not quite. At a price point of £29.99 the retailer will pay £20 including VAT. And if he does not have a big enough turnover he will not be able to claim the VAT back.

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I suppose such a huge kit will not fall in the impulse buy category for the majority of potential Airfix customers. I never wanted a Nimrod but found it an interesting kit - then I found out about the issues and stared to check which updates it would need and what they would add to the cost... I never bought one. I almost did twice: 1. When a shop had it disounted to 20 something and second when someone put it up for sale with lots of improvement sets and extra decals for almost the same price as the Nimrod was alone at normal retail price here. Both times I was too late... I bet it would be the same with their Victor if they make some noticable shape issues with this kit. At this price level there is not much space for faults IMHO.

In the last century it was not such a big deal but today each and everybody will call out if there is something wrong with a kit. Sure not everybody who buys a kit will check the web first but I daresay that something like the Nimrod is usually not sold to beginners. The percentage of active modellers who use reference will be a lot higher with a 1:72 Nimrod than with a 1:72 Spitfire (I strongly believe that the Spitfire will be also widely available, while the Nimrod was only in "selected" shops). Besides: No need to visit a modelling forum - many websites have comments (Amazon,...).

René

More likely they will call out every PERCEIVED error, whether it is true or not. If you could shrink a real Tornado down to 1/72 scale and put it on display at the club show somebody would still look at it and say that there is something wrong with it.

And let's not get started on Amazon reviews. From a review of the Airfix Spitfire 1/72 starter set:

Just received this having ordered it yesterday.

Fast next day delivery.

The packaging on it was falling apart and one of the major parts is missing.

As someone without any history of painting or hobbies like this I rather unsurprisingly don't have a spare paintbrush making the whole thing a completely pointless purchase.

Complete waste of money.

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Another dream prediction, dream I read the latest edition of the airfix workbench and they announced a trio of new kits, a series 1 P-39 with a OD US scheme in box, a p-39 starter with an RAAF camo scheme, and a dogfighter double with a VVS one and a BF109e......

need to stay off the cheese

also to continue T7's point

amazon review of the universally acclaimed new airfix lancaster

"Poor quality kit made from flimsy plastic parts which are easily breakable. Some of the parts are badly made and do not fit together well. I built an Airfix Lancaster in the 1960's and it was much better than this kit. That model still exists, and although it has caught some flak over the years, my grandson is still playing with it ! I was also disappointed that a display stand was not included, and the model therefore has to be made with the undercarriage down"

Edited by PhantomBigStu
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I know that this is slightly off topic but wasn't the Airfix side profit making for Hornby but what let them down was the train side of the business? I just hope a couple of decent British cold war jets in either 1/72 or 1/48 (both to be honest) would be great

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amazon review of the universally acclaimed new airfix lancaster

"Poor quality kit made from flimsy plastic parts which are easily breakable. Some of the parts are badly made and do not fit together well. I built an Airfix Lancaster in the 1960's and it was much better than this kit. That model still exists, and although it has caught some flak over the years, my grandson is still playing with it ! I was also disappointed that a display stand was not included, and the model therefore has to be made with the undercarriage down."

Soft plastic is a commonly-seen complaint about the recent Airfix Kits, on this site and elsewhere. (Doesn't bother me)

Ditto the standard of fit (True in my experience of the Spitfire I/II, Hurricane and Blenheim. But see PS))

As for the stand, that's a matter of taste.

So generally the comments are much the same as we see here, if expressed from an "outsider" point of view. I think that he could have said more to the new kit's credit, but if that's what struck him about it, it makes an interesting view.

PS The latest Scale Aircraft Modelling has a review of the Airfix Blenheim, where the reviewer found the fit to be absolutely flawless. Very interesting, but I only say that he didn't have mine.

Edited by Graham Boak
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