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Steve_farrier

Hypothetical N Korean win

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Posted (edited)

So with some like minded people on here I thought I'd share a hypothesis... A N Korean win in the event of a war with America 

 

what happens if N Korea has a similar if not better military might than the USA/NATO etc.  IF They have an air defence system second to none and have no qualms about poison gas or nuclear attacks against an attacking force. 

Time and time again western forces have been thwarted in their efforts to westernise the Middle East. Usually against half bottomed dictators "with" WMDs , villagers living in the hills using IEDs and dictators with Russian backing (Syria) where the wars have become so complicated that your ally is often your enemy and your enemy's enemy is also your enemy... 😳 

 

What if they come up against a ruthless hard line well equipped military might (who has certainly watched everything than America and the west has done in the last 40 years of waging war) ... I mean let's face it. Western battle tactics consist of

1) strategic long range missile attack and air superiority against key military infrastructure 

2) combined land/air invasion and removal of MBTS, IFVs and remaining airforce 

3) wage a pitiful hearts and minds campaign similar to those that did not succeeded since in and before the Vietnam war. 

 

The West got kicked out of Korea before and Korea still laugh at sanctions imposed including the most recent ones that are the heaviest ever set against a country (according to the BBC news the other day) 

((although I'm not sure if that includes Cuba) 

 

I wonder how battle might be fought in Korea if America Fail to gain air superiority. ...  

 

(sorry for the long winded start... could have just written "what if N Korea win?" 

Edited by Mike
This is a no-swearing board, which includes mixed up and obfuscated spellings. Please remember this.

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Go and play the PC game  Homefront for a few hours, then you'll have an idea what it could be like :)

First point to consider - who says such a conflict would be fought on the Korean peninsula and not continental US ?  Could US military be mobilised within US quickly enough to counter or would their hands be tied for an hour or two over legalities and getting the state governors to declare martial law first ?  Or would it be a NK first strike with nukes with world opinion restricting US retaliation ? 

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Lol got it, Played it. 

Good point as I was focusing on a coalition first strike such as previous wars. You could be right though. 

If Kim Jong-Un can happily execute his closest family to rise  to power then I can't see a nuclear first strike against the USA being much more frowned on by his political allies or his conscience. 

 

What made me wonder if their capabilities are better than some Is the ICBM that landed in Japanese waters recently... it wasn't tracked well enough by radar systems because there was no conclusive evidence on how far it traveled. 

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What needs to remembered with Mr. Kim is that all bets are off with regard to the rules that he might play by. But I think that if he did manage to drop an ICBM with a nuke on any US territory he won't be celebrating the fact for long.

 

Conventionally he would probably look to throw as much as possible across the DMZ, rush south to Seoul and effectively hold the city hostage while DPRK forces take whatever they can from it. It would have to be an overwhelming force as he does not possess much in the way of a combat ready air force to stop the USAF and ROKAF turkey shoot, though I suspect that the US know everywhere that Mr. Kim goes, and they would not be shy of using anything up to a tactical nuke to remove him.

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Neither

 

Kim Jong Un will push his luck too far and the Chinese will step in

Don,t be surprised to wake up and find a new rule more accommodating to Chinese interests

Russia is running out of patience same as Bejing

Neither country wants the region destabilised

China does not want a American ally on its borders (South Korea if reunited) so is perpared to tolerate North Koreas  behaviour but the price is getting too high

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there is reason to suspect that china might do a first strike against N Korea and so show of Chinese military superiority in the world. But what would happen to N Korea in that respect. Would the world request china to keep it Independant from china or would they simply annex it and put a puppet government in place? 

 

Kim as I understand it hasn't made any thread towards china? Only American and test firing misiles towards Japan?

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Kim,s  sabre rattling is attracting America and the worlds attention

China will put in what it sees as good for China and ignore world condemnation

All the condemnation over Tibet as made no difference to China policies same over Korea

Military strike by China ?

China made sure his grandfather won the war and kept his dad in power but you toe the line

Cheaper and safer to remove the head

The murder of is brother was to remove a possible successor but there's one in the wings or a senior diplomat ready to step in

Just because the Chinese foreign minister says little does not mean behind the scenes their is no pressure

China sees itself as the superpower in that region  Kim,s is shaking that base

South Korea for all its so called desire to reunite is cautious , the economic costs of  modernising the North are immense and could be too high

While all he has are missiles  then nothing will happen but when the intelligence  indicate he has the  capability to put one on a missile then things will change fast

 

 

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North Korea only survived the last time because of Chinese and indeed Soviet  intervention. It only survives now because it suits China's purposes. 

An attack on the US or South Korea would not suit China and would probably prompt an intervention to 'protect' North Korea. But not in the way it happened in the fifties. 

Kim like a certain Saddam might believe his own propaganda but he is replaceable. 

I agree with Panzer Vor, China is the key here and they will only tolerate so much posturing. 

 

Time will tell.

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1 hour ago, GrahamS said:

This might answer your question

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-has-warhead-that-fits-inside-intercontinental-missile-10979614

 

If true, of course. We all remember how Iraq's WMD turned out.

 

Graham

Can it reach the UK in 45  minutes?

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China's bottom line is no mass exodus across the Yalau River if the balloon goes up.

 

China isn't afraid to ruffle feathers if it serves their own purpous c.f. The Spratlry Islands.

 

Trevor

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The fat kid with a bad haircut is a nutter. Propagandist extraordinaire, as are any dictators.

 

Don't believe the "ICBM" rubbish either as they are merely modified SCUD missiles with limited range.

The nukes have been a problem as their designs have not reached detonation potential ("fizzles"), however they are improving and the last test apparently was much better. Redesign and reducing the payload to be able to fit into a missile is the next step, once a missile that has sufficient range to do anything has been developed.

 

So: we have a bully that threatens "stuff" and wants appeasement in the form of money and aid. The aid agencies have backed away since the genuine aid for the people, gets hijacked and sold on the luxury black market.

 

Either way, North Korea is a poison chalice that neither side really wants. Financially it would drag down South Korea or China with the rebuilding necessary and the mass exodus of people across the border to "anywhere but here".

Sadly we have seen what happens to dictatorships when the west intervenes...

 

 

 

I fear that this thread will be closed soon because of "political discussion".

 

 

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So which model kit of hardware which might be used in a second Korean war are you going to build next ?

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2 hours ago, hairystick said:

The fat kid with a bad haircut is a nutter. Propagandist extraordinaire, as are any dictators.

 

 

So the bottle tanned bloke with the comb over isn't? And propaganda is not exclusive to those that we choose to label 'dictator'.

 

The country that has started the most military conflicts since 1945 is not one of those that we are constantly told are a threat to world peace.

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1 hour ago, IanHx said:

So which model kit of hardware which might be used in a second Korean war are you going to build next ?

I guess that depends on what N Korea has. Be easy to do a N Korean captured Abrams or humvee, T55s on the white house lawn maybe? 😀

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If I had one of these, maybe with decals for one based in Guam ?

971974-22733-94-pristine.jpg

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I'm not sure that the technoligical aspects are that important.  If we take the head off this monster (Kim) then what happens to all those people you see parading up and down in the news reels they allowe us to see?  I don't think it's important whether they are parading with plastic dummy missiles or out-of-date rusty rifles, you can still kill someone with half a brick.  Who will they turn to?  Who will they turn on?  Wherever this situation goes in the coming months or years it is going to be very, very unpleasant.

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This whole thing reminds me of the "bomber gap". I highly doubt he has any missile capable of hitting mainland USA and I doubt he has the technology to miniaturize a nuclear warhead for such a missile. I even have doubts as to the fact that he has any nuclear weapons at all.

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, noelh said:

I agree with Panzer Vor, China is the key here and they will only tolerate so much posturing. 

I don't think so. The Chinese are pragmatic and will put up with quite a lot of posturing if it's not harming them. What they won't stand for is a clear and present danger. Their security services will have a better idea of how close that is than any of us here.

 

I also very much doubt that the Chinese will want to see N. Korea using nuclear weapons for real, even if they hit countries the Chinese don't like.

 

However, it does all worry me very greatly. Fear of attack makes otherwise sensible countries behave irrationally.

 

Edited by 3DStewart
Correction of typing mistakes

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Kiwidave4 said:

So the bottle tanned bloke with the comb over isn't? And propaganda is not exclusive to those that we choose to label 'dictator'.

 

The country that has started the most military conflicts since 1945 is not one of those that we are constantly told are a threat to world peace.

I read this statement a lot. But I wonder at it's truth.  Perhaps as a matter of historical fact you'd like to provide a list of conflicts actually started by that country rather than intervened or became involved after it started. I can only think of two offhand;  the attack on Saddam but arguably that was unfinished business after GW1. Grenada too, but that was something of an unseemly skirmish rather than a war. Otherwise I'm struggling. 

Perhaps you mean Russia/Soviet Union. Now there's a long list. It's no accident that every war seems to be fought with Russian equipment. 

 

As for labelling Kim as a dictator. I think even he would admit that if you were ever to meet him over a glass of fine French wine. Just beforenter he has you shot for disrespect.;)

Edited by noelh

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7 hours ago, Steve_farrier said:

, T55s on the white house lawn maybe? 😀

Gives the Secret Service a valid excuse to yell  "Donald duck" :)

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