Jump to content
This site uses cookies! Learn More

This site uses cookies!

You can find a list of those cookies here: mysite.com/cookies

By continuing to use this site, you agree to allow us to store cookies on your computer. :)

Recommended Posts

On 14/11/2017 at 1:07 PM, Gordon J said:

At Telford on Saturday I did ask the two Airfix guys who were standing by the Blenheim mock up if we could expect a MK IV after the MK I is released and was given an unequivocal NO!. The MK I has been tooled in such a way that the moulds are specific to the MK I only. I thought it strange but that was what I was told.

 

I suspect that after the Blenheim Mk I sells in record numbers a MK IV will be hastily tooled and released thereafter. 

I, and others, got exactly the same message on the Sunday. In 72nd they haven't done the Lincoln but gave the nod to an after-market producer. It wouldn't be unreasonable to do the same here? That way Airfix sell the kit anyway, a conversion is offered for those who really want a Mk IV and Airfix can wait and see what happens with sales. I know where two Mk Is are going though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Worst case scenario Airfix gets cherry picked.

 

Anyway, enough doom and gloom what’s the next Airfix new kit?

 

Spitfire Vb or c In 1/72 is a no brained.

 

Trevor the optimist 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Airfix senior management have made many errors recently. Oxford Diecasts will turn out to be over-priced, CEO will quit as he's no fool and can see the writing on the wall, the day to day operating loss will swallow most of the new money, and most damming the top earners will draw above inflation pay rises despite losing 20% of their turnover which, coupled with price rises, equates to about 25% less boxes moved.

I think the efficiencies will amount to outsourcing more and sell and leaseback for infrastructure items. Then they are betting on expanding into Europe which will cost a fortune and then almost immediately be crippled by Brexit.

This sound negative and it is. Much like the companies outlook. I really don't think they understand the market.

 

Young Terry gets kits as presents from older relatives who had received them the same way. If it goes well another will be brought and so on until either he steps on a 'landmine' an old, ill-fitting kit reboxed or discovers sports, girls, alcohol and so on. Very few keep in the hobby continuously.

 

Moving a few years on Terry is settled with a young child who receives a kit as a present/souvenir/school activity build. Father/child bonding. Means more brought and Terry keeps in the hobby even after child is off discovering life, maybe until old age stops him. Otherwise as his job becomes more demanding with other commitments Terry drifts away again until retirement looms when, with grand children in the frame he's back until the end.

 

I'd bet that covers the vast majority of model kit buyers but, by starving sellers of stocks that cycle has been broken just as it was when they disappeared nearly a generation ago.

 

Buy the kits but not the shares as advised above. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope they do keep going.  

I've loved their latest content so much and would be genuinely sad to see Airfix die.  

 

For my part I'm stocking up on my favourite current kits given Airfix's habit of batch release.

 

So I've ordered about £200 of kits this month.  My stash is getting out of hand! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, At Sea said:

 

So I've ordered about £200 of kits this month... 

 

 

Blimey. I felt I was pushing the boat out just buying the Me 262 last month! :lol:

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, IanC said:

 

Blimey. I felt I was pushing the boat out just buying the Me 262 last month! :lol:

 

 

Well I 'needed' a couple of Hurricanes in 1/48 and I didn't have the new Spitfire Vb, so I ordered 2 of those.

My Christmas present from the children was a Mustang and (another) Victor and then the Shackleton AEW2 appeared today.

 

Not that excessive. :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I took a quick look to see how Hornby shares are going following the release of more shares to the market to raise some capital.

 

Here is the 12 month trend..

 

37942543804_bdcb485259_b.jpg

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe it's time for Hornby to divest itself of everything but Airfix and Humbrol :idea: Since Airfix seems to be the only profitable part of their operations... :wink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We always seem to say Airfix is the profitable bit of the Hornby brand portfolio.  

 

I don’t disagree but rationally I’m not sure how we ‘know’ that. 

As you’d need to see quite detailed financial information to come to that conclusion. I don’t think that info is in the public domain..

 

Maybe there is a thread on a model railway forum saying Hornby  should divest themselves of Airfix as the trains are the only bit that makes money....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hornby Company have themselves released statements in the past which said that Airfix was the most profitable of the brands. AFAIR Bayer was the least and I think they dropped that one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you have a link to the statement?  Also how long ago was it made?? 

 

I dont diasagree with the sentiment but it would be nice to have something tangible to back it up..

Edited by Plasto

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's simple economics gents - a declining market with more players than ever before, all fighting for their slice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agreed... On face value. With simple economics as a driver, something has to give with Hornby’s current business model.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Plasto said:

I took a quick look to see how Hornby shares are going following the release of more shares to the market to raise some capital.

 

Here is the 12 month trend..

 

37942543804_bdcb485259_b.jpg

 

 

 

A lowering of share price shouldn't come as a surprise after a secondary offering of the type Airfix just completed.  The simple fact that more shares are available for the company, resulting in a lower the unit price of each share (see https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/07/secondary_offering.asp for a slightly more thorough explanation). 

 

We also need to know the current market capital for the company which (hopefully) is higher than the capital prior to the release of additional shares (otherwise, no extra capital is raised and the company can't move forward with its plans).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Current Market Cap is 24.3M...

 

When Phoenix UK Fund bought out New Pistoria’s share holding in June the estimated market cap then was 27.4m

 

The offer rate in June was 32.37p per share for 17.6 million shares.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Plasto

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

.

 

On "RMWeb" (a railway modelling site) the general impression (BASED ON NOTHING MORE THAN WISHES AND GUESSES) is that only the model railway business and Airfix are profitable (see below) - with Scalextric and others not - whether that is true who knows ?

 

The reason for Airfix being profitable is thought to be that they have withdrawn from most of its ranges and are concentrating on aircraft.  (Likewise, Hornby have indicated that the model railway business will be trimmed around the edges to concentrate on the more profitable products.)

 

This last weekend there was the largest model railway show of the year at the NEC (sort of equivalent to Telford).   It was expected (ie Hornby announced) that the Collector's club would be relaunched there - but nothing.   Hornby have now said that their railway catalogue and club relaunch will happen on 6th January.  It is ASSUMED that the Board and new CEO are still recasting their business plan for the company - so the Model Railway fans are crossing their fingers that good-ish news will be forthcoming after Christmas.  I assume that Airfix fans will, likewise, be crossing their fingers for good news.

 

.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see Airfix are going to have a Workbench this Friday a week earlier than normal. - as follows:

 

"The next edition of Workbench is due to be published on Friday 1st December. Until then, we would like to sincerely thank you for your continued support of Airfix Workbench and our regular modelling updates."

 

maybe they have something to tell (or show) us?

 

Also coincides with the Advent calendar start

Edited by trickydicky210
Quote from site added

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, trickydicky210 said:

I see Airfix are going to have a Workbench this Friday a week earlier than normal.

 

maybe they have something to tell (or show) us?

 

Also coincides with the Advent calendar start

Source, they had a workbench lfriday just gone, normally biweekly, though if they do that’s just too many but stars aligning to not have some kind of reveal on the cards 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Phil Gollin said:

.

 

On "RMWeb" (a railway modelling site) the general impression (BASED ON NOTHING MORE THAN WISHES AND GUESSES) is that only the model railway business and Airfix are profitable (see below)......

 

.

Thanks for that that’s an interesting insight.. As you say who knows if it’s true..

 

5 hours ago, Phil Gollin said:

It is ASSUMED that the Board and new CEO are still recasting their business plan for the company - so the Model Railway fans are croood-ish news will be forthcoming after Christmas.  I assume that Airfix fans will, likewise, be crossing their fingers for good news.

 

.

My guess is that they will be wanting to see how the share offer goes and also how they trade over Christmas which is traditionally  a strong trading period for toy companies. They will also get a bit of a shot in the arm in January when the Phantom and fury hit the shelves. I don’t follow The Hornby trains releases so there might be some releases happening on those as well.

 

Will watch with interest..

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Plasto said:

Thanks for that that’s an interesting insight.. As you say who knows if it’s true..

 

My guess is that they will be wanting to see how the share offer goes and also how they trade over Christmas which is traditionally  a strong trading period for toy companies. They will also get a bit of a shot in the arm in January when the Phantom and fury hit the shelves. I don’t follow The Hornby trains releases so there might be some releases happening on those as well.

 

Will watch with interest..

 

 

 

Don't forget the Nuremberg Toy Fair 31 Jan-4 Feb

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Am I on my own, wanting Airfix to tool.kits Military, Ships, Vehicles and Sci fi 😊 And my main interest is Aircraft, or is the above going to end up being taken over by the Cottage industry 😉

 

Or, maybe we have been spoiled the past 20 years 😏 The sad missed kits, Airfix 1/48, Scimitar, Revells 1/32 Do 17, Eduards 1/32 Spitfire Mk I, I don't think we will see these kits, back in 2008, I did think it was a done deal, but times change 😊

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, PhantomBigStu said:

Source, they had a workbench lfriday just gone, normally biweekly, though if they do that’s just too many but stars aligning to not have some kind of reveal on the cards 

Last Friday's Workbench said the next one would be this Friday 1st December.

 

https://www.airfix.com/uk-en/news/workbench/modelling-heaven-at-scale-modelworld-2017/#.WhyF6wIYLJc.link

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, AntPhillips said:

Last Friday's Workbench said the next one would be this Friday 1st December.

 

https://www.airfix.com/uk-en/news/workbench/modelling-heaven-at-scale-modelworld-2017/#.WhyF6wIYLJc.link

 

So besides having to give Airfix Workbench a new dictionary, do we now also need to hand them a proper Calendar as well??

Sounds like a possible typo to me.

Anyway - All in jest of course...

Happy to eat one's hat if we get one this Friday.  

 

Cheers.. Dave  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Rabbit Leader said:

So besides having to give Airfix Workbench a new dictionary, do we now also need to hand them a proper Calendar as well??

Sounds like a possible typo to me.

Anyway - All in jest of course...

Happy to eat one's hat if we get one this Friday.  

 

Cheers.. Dave  

When I saw the first comment, I went back and re-read last Friday's newsletter, and it clearly says December 1st, but of course a couple of paragraphs above it also mentions 2 weeks, so I guess we'll just have to wait and see, whatever I'm not holding my breath 😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×