Mixed fleet of F-35s for UK?

[Meatbox8]

Well, this is rather a surprise, and will be interesting to see whether it really pans out that way.  Logic would suggest that all the Bs should go to the Navy and the As, which I'm assuming they are alluding to, would go to the RAF.  But then again, when did logic ever get in the way of MOD decisions?   Having said that, this fleet balance does actually make sense to me.  As I understand it the F-35A is cheaper and more capable then the B.  As it seems unlikely both QE class will be sailing at the same time do we really need 138 F-35Bs?  I know central servicing might be more expensive but if Italy can afford both types it I don't see why the UK can't.  There was a time, not that long ago, when the RAF/RN were operating six or seven different fast jet types and we seemed to be able to afford that.

 

Anyway, see below if you're wondering what on Earth I'm banging on about.

 

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/government-suggest-change-uk-f-35-variant-order-first-48-f-35bs/

Edited July 12, 2017 by Meatbox8
grammar

[Slater]

Will the UK be buying the 25mm gun pods for the F-35B?

[XV107]

The inference that people seem to be drawing from Earl How's statement is 'it might only be 48 B-models! Horrors!', when that isn't what he's said. 

 

The possibility of a mixed fleet has been out there since last year. Air Cdre Linc Taylor said that the MoD would, as part of the studies for SDSR20 (at least, that's when one is assumed to be happening), review whether the fleet would consist entirely of B-models, or whether a split buy would be more appropriate for the UK's defence needs. He made clear that one consideration which would come into play would be the question 'will doing this have an adverse effect on the ability to deploy from the carrier(s)?' and if the answer was 'yes', then 'the B-model' would be the answer to 'what model should the next batch in the contract be?'

 

The theory is that as attrition rates for combat aircraft decline (for a variety of reasons - compare, say the F-22 with the F-15, or the Typhoon with the Tornado; look at how much synthetic training is done vice actual flying, etc, etc), more of the fleet can be used, rather than being rotated in and out of use to have an attrition reserve and reduce aircraft fatigue indices.  This doesn't, of course, mean that all 138 [assuming we do end up with that number] will be in use at once, but it does mean that the potential for a greater proportion of the force to be employed with squadrons exists. And that, in turn, means that it may well be possible to service the requirements for the carriers and have an F-35A buy without compromising the carrier capability.

 

The 'magic' number has always been 48 F-35B to generate the 36-strong air wing aboard the QE, with the assumption being that this means 96 overall for both carriers. But...

 

There are various classified joint planning scenarios out there which attempt to predict what sort of threats the UK may face and what the responses look like. If  - that perhaps should be IF - these scenarios conclude that the answer is, in fact, one carrier in routine use with the second at high-ish readiness, but more usually putting to sea after the other one returns home, then the figures may well change from the widely-assumed 96 (from doubling the 48) to, say, 72, or 80. That gives some head room in terms of thinking about whether the whole fleet needs to be the B-model.

 

Even if the figure is 96, then the concept of operations and the planning for fleet management may mean that of the 138 aircraft, the numbers of aircraft in squadron service, vice undergoing major servicing, in reserve, etc, etc may offer a balance not previously seen where of that 138, 110 (say) are in use at any one time. Which would, potentially, mean that you could have (say) 90 B-models and 20 A-models plus 14 more of each not in use.

 

Then, you have to bear in mind that people are talking as though the 138 buy is going to be it. It may not be. Let us assume that the plan survives contact with the Treasury, and we go for the full 138 - there is nothing to say that we won't make a further purchase later in the production cycle. Remember that F-35 production is going to continue into the 2030s under current plans, so the possibility of adding more aircraft as a Typhoon replacement (say) also comes into play. So it may be that the last lot of airframes ordered as part of the 138 ends up being 10 A-models as a lead in to a purchase of another 20/40/60 when the picture as to what's needed becomes clearer in 5-10 years time.

 

 

The 138 airframes currently projected allows some wriggle room for a mixed buy without fatally compromising carrier capability, which will inevitably be the response to the story.

 

1 hour ago, Slater said:

Will the UK be buying the 25mm gun pods for the F-35B?

 

Yes.

[Meatbox8]

That's very interesting.  I had not heard any noise at all about a mixed fleet until I saw this report in UKDJ.  I can remember the hullabaloo about switching models i.e. B to C and back to B, so assumed it would only ever be one model.  The potential for another follow-on order is interesting too.  The added advantage is that, as far as I understand it,  the airframes are continuously getting cheaper, or should I say 'less expensive' as production continues and if the carriers were both max'd out with a full compliment of 72 F-35Bs, sustainable from a fleet of 96, and the MOD orders another batch there would be little point in them being Bs except for servicing issues.  Bearing in mind the complex nature of the STOVL version in comparison to the A this would seem, to me at least, a very minor saving for quite a lot less capability.  After all, why would we need a STOVL wing operating wholly out of Marham?  

[Marv]

The pending F-35 purchase will certainly bolster the ranks of the RAF and RN; imagine how many pilots, maintenance, supply, and admin personnel are going to be needed to put this aircraft in the air, There's going to be some hiring and training to do for sure. I suppose that there may be some holdover personnel, left over from defunct programs, but I suspect new personnel will be required. So, if one is keen on flying, or being associated in some way with the Lightning II, now may be the time to consider joining up. Making Britain's air services great again....

[Meatbox8]

16 minutes ago, Marv said:

The pending F-35 purchase will certainly bolster the ranks of the RAF and RN; imagine how many pilots, maintenance, supply, and admin personnel are going to be needed to put this aircraft in the air, There's going to be some hiring and training to do for sure. I suppose that there may be some holdover personnel, left over from defunct programs, but I suspect new personnel will be required. So, if one is keen on flying, or being associated in some way with the Lightning II, now may be the time to consider joining up. Making Britain's air services great again....

 

Let's hope so.

[Truro Model Builder]

Switching to the F-35A once the carrier complement is taken care of makes a lot of sense, not least as the Navy can do what it does and the RAF can do what it does. Who joins the RAF wanting to sail around the world? Add to that the 'A is a much more capable aircraft than the 'B as it hasn't had to be compromised so much, and is not as expensive.

 

I note that some of the comments on that article are from people still of the opinion that we will be having two carriers in commission at the same time. 

[Meatbox8]

1 hour ago, T7 Models said:

Switching to the F-35A once the carrier complement is taken care of makes a lot of sense, not least as the Navy can do what it does and the RAF can do what it does. Who joins the RAF wanting to sail around the world? Add to that the 'A is a much more capable aircraft than the 'B as it hasn't had to be compromised so much, and is not as expensive.

 

I note that some of the comments on that article are from people still of the opinion that we will be having two carriers in commission at the same time. 

 

Agreed on all counts.  I can't see both carriers in commission at the same time except in a Falklands type confrontation, which seems unlikely, especially as we only have six active escorts available at the moment.   The only exception I can think of is if they are in some sort of expeditionary role where one would be F-35, ASW and AEW equipped and the other has an air assault group with Jungles, Chinooks and Apaches.  Having said that it seems unlikely that Britain would be acting alone in such a scenario so if the US is involved with a Gerald Ford Class, or France with the CdG in theatre I suspect we'd only see one QE class.  Would the FAA eventually get all the Bs though?  I doubt it somehow, sadly.

Edited July 15, 2017 by Meatbox8